Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 241657
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1057 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Eastern UT and western CO will remain under moderate southwest
flow aloft ahead of another low pressure system that covers the
states to the west and north. Today will be drier and warmer and
Wednesday will be drier than previous thought as the western
troughy pattern will be slow to move east. Two circulation
centers, the first retrograding from central Canada into central
and western Montana, will come into phase as the second low
travels along the west coast to southern California by Wednesday
morning. This process appears to slow the easterly movement of the
broader long wave trough comprised of the two smaller lows. This
leaves the forecast area under and drier southwest flow and allows
daytime temperatures today and Wednesday to rise to seasonal
normals.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Wednesday night the southern trough will move out of southern CA
into western AZ and it weakens as it lifts NE into Utah and
Arizona Thursday morning. Chances of showers increase on Thursday
as its associated cold front work through the area. Moisture and
instability are limited with only weak cold advection aloft so did
not force POPs much above guidance for now.

Friday an unsettled NW flow aloft brings another round of late day
showers and isolated thunderstorms for all but SE Utah. After a
cool Thursday-Friday a warming trend begins. The next upper low
drops in from British Columbia over the weekend backing the flow
to SW again. This trough deepens along the California coast early
next week and may pass through this forecast area on June 2nd or
so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1057 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Mid and high level cloud cover at or above 120kft agl is keeping
VFR conditions in place at forecast terminals late this morning.
This flight level rule will persist over the next 24 hours.
Afternoon instability will lead to another round of isolated
thunderstorm development through sunset. Probabilities of a storm
impacting the TAF sites is too low to place in forecast attm.
General wind gusts exceeding 25 mph will also be possible through
the mid to late afternoon hours which could enhance outflow winds
from thunderstorms with gusts reaching up to 50 mph near some
storms.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGJT



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