Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 272211
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME MTN
TOP GUSTS OF 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



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