Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 151745
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

H5 ANALYSIS HAD RIDGE AXIS FROM SW TO NORTHEAST OVER OUR CWA
AT 12Z. THIS AXIS IS PUSHING EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
OVER THE PAC NW IS DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMP TREND
IS DOING BETTER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND GOING FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE CLOSE. WILL MAKE A FEW SMALL TWEAKS BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT MIXING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BOOST HIGH UP SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER THE POST FRONTAL REGIME OF YESTERDAY.
WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE DELTA/MONTROSE
AREAS UNTIL 8 AM. TEMPS HAVE DIPPED BELOW 32F AT THE MONTROSE AND
DELTA AIRPORTS...BUT DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE MERCURY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE GRAND JCT AIRPORT SO FAR.

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS A PACIFIC STORM PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO WY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH. IT WILL
ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...THEN INTO THE
SOUTH WED. MODELS SHOW DECENT COLD ADVECTION AT 700 MB BUT HOLD THE
BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO A
BIT LACKING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW THEN
WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY WED MORNING. A SECOND WAVE WILL BRING BETTER
JET SUPPORT BY WED AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SEE SHIFT FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON WED. SOME MTN AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE
AND AREAS EAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SRN
MTNS...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE RAPID MOVEMENT NOT MUCH
MORE CAN BE EXPECTED. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE EFFECTS OF A TRANSITORY
RIDGE AS TEMPS REBOUND SOME AND SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANOTHER WEEKEND
STORM IS LINING UP AS BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TWO MODELS GETTING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH THE FINER DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL KICK
OFF FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS STORM...AROUND 10K FEET OR
SO...THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DROP LEVELS SOMEWHAT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING. IN FACT...THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKENDS STORM THOUGH
AGAIN...THE FINER DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PASSING OVERHEAD LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS. A FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING PULLING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SOUTHWARD WITH IT. THE BULK OF THE STORM
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION COMES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WHEN
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS TO AREA FORECAST TERMINALS ARE MORE
LIKELY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT



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