428
FXUS65 KGJT 262353
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
553 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have fired again this
afternoon but unlike the last few days, available moisture has
lessened somewhat. This happened because the high pressure
centered to our east has built westward causing moisture
transport from the south to lower considerably. However, with
enough moisture remaining in the atmosphere, daytime heating will
be more than enough to fire off convection. As one would expect,
as heating wanes, most convection will end though a stray shower
is certainly possible. Tomorrow, more of the same as remnant
monsoonal moisture allows convection to fire yet again. Coverage
will be less than seen today. Expect normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

It`s not a question of if but when the next monsoonal push of
moisture returns. The general gist is that an approaching trough
will push the center of high pressure back to the east over the
weekend allowing another surge of moisture to stream into the
area. Some timing issues arise as to when exactly this will happen
so confidence not as high as it could be. The biggest push looks
to occur Sunday into Sunday night with the San Juans and central
mountains being the big winners. Having said that, expect more
plentiful showers and storms Saturday evening through Tuesday
evening with a downturn expected Wednesday onwards.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 553 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Isolated to scattered storms mainly over the higher terrain will
continue through about 03Z this evening before activity wanes
after sunset. Mountain TAF sites like KTEX and KASE may see
direct impact with brief heavy rain and gusty winds while the
remaining valley TAF sites see some brief gusty outflow winds from
nearby storms. CIGS and VSBY may briefly lower in vicinity and
with any storms to brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail through the overnight into Thursday morning. Storms
expected to redevelop over higher terrain after 18Z Thursday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...MDA