298
FXUS65 KGJT 081712
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1112 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures move in today and persist over the coming
  days. The hottest day looks to be Wednesday with triple digit
  highs expected for the Grand Valley and central and southeast
  Utah.

- A passing wave Wednesday night into Thursday may bring some
  light precip to the area.

- Afternoon winds increase towards the end of the week which
  will increase fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A downtick in convection will occur today as moisture decreases
and forcing across the area will be minimal at best. Might see a
quick shower or storm over the Divide later this afternoon but
even that looks very iffy. The bigger concern will be the
continued warm air advection and dry conditions across the
region. Highs today will reach a few degrees warmer than
yesterday meaning triple digits for the Grand Valley and much of
central and southeast Utah and the low to mid 90s for the
northern and southern valleys. Similar conditions are expected
Wednesday but temperatures will stay very hot with 102F forecast
for Grand Junction, 103F for Moab. This trend continues across
the CWA. While not reaching heat advisory criteria, these will
still be some of the hottest temperatures seen this year. Be
sure to drink plenty of water and dress accordingly if outside
today and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

With the high pressure entrenched over the Desert Southwest,
the low off the West Coast will have lifted north and moved
inland as it becomes an open wave tracking east on the zonal
flow aloft. Models are in good agreement with this open wave
system moving across the northern half of eastern Utah and
Western Colorado overnight Wednesday into Thursday bringing
enough instability and upper-level convective support from a
weak jet to kick off isolated showers and nocturnal
thunderstorms over the higher terrain Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning mostly in the central and northern Colorado
mountains. The integrated water vapor transport models are
sneaking moisture north into the Great Basin out of southern
Arizona under the high that gets picked up by this system and
advected east into the region. Guidance is still pessimistic on
precip from this system, but with pwats over 0.70 inches,
wouldn`t be surprised to see wetting rain possible mostly across
the Flat Tops and mountains north of the I-70 corridor. Stay
tuned on this forecast convection as the models catch up on the
moisture squeezing in under the high. Would expect to see PoP`s
increase significantly from the current values.

Otherwise, look for hot, dry conditions across the region with
moderate afternoon winds approaching critical fire weather
thresholds. Wednesday will see a few localized areas of near
critical fire weather conditions with these conditions becoming
more widespread Thursday due to increased winds, but it`s too
soon to tell if a Red Flag Warning will be needed; again, stay
tuned for the next few model runs for updates. Going into the
weekend, winds diminish as the high pressure expands north over
the region reducing the upper level flow. Temperatures will
remain five to ten degrees above normal for July and very dry
weather across the region resulting in dangerous fire conditions
even though winds may be light. As always, exercise extreme
care recreating in the hills to prevent wild fires. With the hot
and very dry conditions, a fire can easily start and quickly
spread.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Wind gusts
upwards of 25 mph are possible this afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT