Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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826
FXUS65 KGJT 222225
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
425 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 423 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

A storm system is pushing onto the California coast this afternoon
placing the forecast area in warm moist southerly flow and
overcast sky conditions. The current visible satellite image is
showing plenty of convective clouds over Utah with numerous
lightning strikes near Salt Lake City.

The 1800Z GFS20 and 1200Z ECMWF have initialized well with this
storm system and slide it east into the Great Basin overnight
tonight, maintaining moist southerly flow over our forecast area.
As the storm continues to move east we can expect snow to develop
over the higher terrain with rain in the lower elevations. The
atmosphere will be quite buoyant ahead of the storm system with
enough vertical motion to support isolated thunderstorms and
greater snowfall rates on Thursday. Although the snow levels will
start out upwards of 9500 to 10000 feet they will slowly drop to
between 6500 and 7000 feet early Friday morning.

Snow amounts for the mountains will range between 4 to 8 inches
with locally higher amounts, therefore have issued numerous Winter
Weather Advisories which begin tonight. For additional information
please see the Winter Weather Advisory DENWSWGJT or check it out
online at www.weather.gov/gjt

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Showers will linger around Friday morning as the storm system
exits to the east. Both the 1800Z GFS and 1200Z ECMWF show a ridge
over the area on Saturday, providing us with a dry weather day.
However, we are headed into a progressive/active weather pattern.
A trough of low pressure is forecast to quickly pass over Utah and
Colorado Saturday night Sunday morning bringing the possibility
of additional precipitation with a quick ridge Sunday afternoon.
Model continuity breaks down on Monday, however both models are
forecasting a low pressure system to more or less stall out over
the Great Basin and Intermountain West for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Moisture has begun to stream into the area ahead of the cold front
which will pass through the region tomorrow. ILS breakpoints will
be reached intermittently throughout the afternoon as convection
lowers cloud bases across the region. Isolated showers will begin
this afternoon, but more steady precipitation is expected to first
reach Vernal this evening and then move eastward over the next 24
hours. Visibilities and ceilings will decrease rapidly at KVEL and
KTEX tonight and tomorrow morning, respectively. Locations like
KASE will only begin to see a threat of steadier precipitation
around if not after 18z Thursday.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday
     for COZ009-010-012-013.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM MDT Friday
     for COZ018-019.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT
     Friday for UTZ023.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday
     for UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...Larry
AVIATION...JAM



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