000
FXUS65 KGJT 201643
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1043 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z KGJT RAOB SHOWED OVER HALF OF AN INCH OF WATER REMAINING IN THE
SOUNDING...KEEPING THINGS JUICY AS THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL. UNDERESTIMATED THE SURGE OF MOISTURE YESTERDAY AS EVEN WEAK
LIFT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. QG PROGS
SHOW LARGE SCALE LIFT IS AGAIN BROAD AND ILL DEFINED TODAY WITH
JUST A TRAILING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
BRUSH US TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING MOVING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING...WITH ACCAS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THIS WAVE MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY MID
MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THINK THE
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
ENHANCE THE WEAK LIFT. FEEL THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA MAY HAVE
HAVE THE EDGE AT COVERAGE WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUTTING A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN
PLACE TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE NORMAL AND START A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AS WARMER AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS
COULD POPS A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MILD
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD PUSH UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WARM RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WIND AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FORMS
AHEAD OF A DECENT COLD FRONT THAT YIELDS GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE DESERTS OF ERN UTAH INTO NW COLORADO COULD
BE PUSHING 45 TO 50 MPH. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERGOES
DYNAMICAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...GENERATING CLOUD COVER
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WRN COLORADO (OR VIRGA IN THE DRIER
SUB CLOUD LAYER). MAV MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (86 AT GRAND JUNCTION)...MOST LIKELY TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THAT 700 MB TEMPS DO NOT REACH
10C OR HIGHER.

CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION STAYS WELL NORTH OF COLORADO AND TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES. THE AIR MASS DOES GET COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE DESERT VALLEYS IS UNLIKELY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ELKHEADS AND THE PARK RANGE...AND THE CENTRAL/SRN
MOUNTAIN PASSES. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...SNOW POTENTIAL DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. CHANGES MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED
PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INLAND. HOWEVER THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS LESS
AMPLIFICATION WITH PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING IN PIECES. NOT CLEAR
HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING
IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER
TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS. CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 02Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...MPM