Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 200501

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Forecast models are consistent and add confidence for forecast
details. The upper low over Washington state will sink into
northern California on Friday. Northwest flow aloft this evening
backs to southwest on Friday with the strongest gradient over
Utah. Afternoon wind gusts of around 45 mph are expected so a Wind
Advisory has been issued for SE Utah and far NW Colorado. These
stronger wind gusts should diminish in the valleys early Friday
evening though exposed higher terrain should have gusty winds
through the night. There is enough residual moisture to set off
late- day, mainly- mountain convection. Associated virga or light
showers could produce locally stronger winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Saturday, the low works into eastern Oregon stretched across the
western Great Basin. Southwest gradient winds will increase a few
mph, but cloud cover may inhibit vertical mixing and valley wind
gusts somewhat.

Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft

A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Isolated showers over the higher terrain will continue here and
there through midmorning, but pose little threat to airport
operations. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in
coverage and intensity over the higher terrain from late morning
into the evening in response to daytime warming. Meanwhile, winds
will become strong as a storm system moves southward into northern
California and northwest Nevada, especially over southeast Utah
and northwest Colorado. Wind gusts in excess of 45 MPH are likely
in the areas just mentioned, but will decrease after 8 PM MDT.
Outflow winds from thunderstorms could top 50 MPH.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ001.

UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027-029.



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