413
FXUS65 KGJT 120537
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1137 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions continue with chances for afternoon
  showers and thunderstorms today and Saturday on terrain.

- Gusty outflows and dry lightning will continue to pose threats
  to wildfire management today and tomorrow.

- Hot and dry conditions persist into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Hot and dry conditions are in the forecast for the short term.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain have
begun today, with support from weak moisture advection over the
Divide, and are expected again tomorrow. Dry thunderstorms are
possible given our lack of atmospheric moisture, which means the
primary concerns with these storms are lightning and gusty
outflows. High pressure centered to our southwest will keep
temperatures above normal over the coming days. As a result,
near or above triple digit high temperatures are possible in
the desert valleys.

There are multiple active wildfires in our region producing
smoke. Most of this smoke is expected to stay south of I-70
while we are under northwesterly flow. Widespread dry conditions
will remain in place through the short term, and afternoon
relative humidity values will fall below 15% for most of the CWA
expect for the highest terrain. Afternoon wind gusts are
anticipated to generally stay below critical fire weather
thresholds, although gusts near or above 25 mph are possible in
some local areas, creating localized Red Flag conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

On Sunday high pressure will be positioned over the Desert
Southwest leaving us under weak northwest aloft through early next
week. As a result temperatures look to run about 5 degrees above
normal. Given the weak flow moisture should linger in the region
mainly across the southern half of the forecast area. Therefore
there is a chance for diurnally driven showers over the high terrain
each afternoon with a focus in and around the San Juans. Rainfall
rates will generally be light given the warm temperatures, and
showers will be capable of producing strong outflow winds. It is
evident now that some places are very susceptible to lightning fire
starts, and that potential will continue until temperatures cool and
moisture arrive. Over the course of next week models want to migrate
the high pressure eastward, which should not change the sensible
weather here much. Although by late week that high gets situated to
our east opening the door to southerly flow. This flow will allow
moisture to spread into our area, so we should see an uptick in the
convection. Hopefully this moisture can give us some relief from the
hot and dry conditions in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will continue at
terminals, as high pressure pushes in from the west Saturday.
Non zero chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
against the Divide, but confidence is low in storms forming far
enough west to impact terminals. KGUC, KASE, and KEGE are
favorable for a VCSH, but held off on PROB30 storms.
Showers/storms will produce gusty outflows and lightning, but
not much else with the dry air in place. Wildfire smoke will
continue to ebb and flow across southwest Colorado. Mentioned
reduced visibility in KMTJ, KGUC, KTEX, and KDRO thanks to
smoke. Northerly flow will likely keep other terminals out of
the path of smoke plumes.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT