000
FXUS65 KGJT 232122
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

High pressure ridging will bring warmer air aloft with 700 mb temps
up to 12 to 13C by Wednesday afternoon....versus the 6C our 00z
sounding on Monday evening measured. This means that max
temperatures will soar Wednesday afternoon. An aide in this warming
will be increased westerly winds due to a strong trough barely
swiping northern Utah and Colorado on Wednesday. See fire section
below for more on potential critical fire conditions Thursday. This
trough brushing Utah and Colorado Wednesday evening will bring an
increase in cloud cover and possibly some isolated showers late
Wednesday night...which will moderate temperatures Wednesday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Good consensus on forecast models bringing the trough through
eastern Utah and western Colorado Saturday with 500mb vorticity
features aligning well. Ensemble means quite close together on the
location of a disturbance passing Saturday, so confidence is
moderate on this feature moving through on Saturday. This will
likely bring increased coverage of showers as this disturbance
passes through.

Large amplitude ridge builds across the western US early next week
with a summer season style pattern developing. This large amplitude
ridge will allow for terrain induced afternoon showers each
day...likely containing to the mountains bringing lightning
potential to backcountry hikers and recreationists.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Expect moderate
north to northwest winds above mountain top level with surface
winds mainly normal diurnal directions and speeds.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

A weather disturbance dropping south into Utah and Colorado on
Thursday will bring gusty winds to the region. Little to no
precipitation is expected across the Four Corners with this
disturbance as moisture increases across northern Utah and
Colorado but remains out of southeastern Utah and southwestern
Colorado on Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible due to winds combining with low relative humidity and dry
fuels for Colorado Fire Zone 207 in Southwest due to gusty winds,
low relative humidity, and dry fuels...so a Fire Weather Watch
has been issued for Thursday afternoon in Southwest Colorado. By
Friday afternoon, gusty winds conditions, but relative humidity
values increase above critical thresholds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for COZ207.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...JAM