Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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376
FXUS65 KGJT 280443
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1043 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The Subtropical High center is shifting west into the Great Basin
and will remain there into the weekend. The resultant northwest
flow aloft will bring dry and warm conditions to the region. Only
the southern mountains may produce a few late-day thunderstorms.

Daytime temperatures will be around 8 degrees above normal while
overnight lows will be near normal. Evaporative coolers will work
efficiently as afternoon dewpoints will drop into the 30s, except
lingering in the 40s in the southern valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The dry heat continues through Friday. Over the weekend and into
next week, northern Pacific low pressure systems dig into the
Pacific Northwest then track east. This flattens the Subtropical
Ridge and nudges it east. This allows marginal monsoonal moisture
to push back north of the Four Corners beginning Saturday night.
The GFS has precipitable water values approaching one inch in the
southern valleys through Tuesday, decreasing to around 0.7 inch in
the north. The GFS shows deeper moisture invading next Wednesday.

The return of moisture next week will shave some heat off the
afternoons but dewpoints back into the mid to upper 40s will make
for muggy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1043 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Visual flight rules will dominate the forecast over the next 24
hours. The only concern may be some late afternoon wind gusts
approaching 25 mph along the Colorado and Roaring Fork River
valleys.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...TGJT



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