Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 240517
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1117 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

A broad trough of low pressure remains over the Intermountain
West into next week bringing generally breezy, unsettled, and
cool conditions. Spokes of energy rotating through the trough from
SW to NE will drive our weather. This afternoon the first of
these spokes was lifting through NW Colorado. Scattered showers
north of I-70 will quickly end this evening. Tonight valley
inversions will allow temperatures to fall below normal and a
transient weak ridge will diminish the SW winds in the high
country.

Tuesday SW winds increase as the larger trough deepens along the
California coast. Moisture will be limited with only disorganized
forcing, so late-day showers will favor the northern-central
mountains. Overnight temperatures remain at or below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Wednesday the trough works through California and weakens as it
moves into Utah-Arizona overnight. Chances of showers increase on
Thursday as its associated cold front work through the area.
Moisture and instability are limited with only weak cold advection
aloft so did not force POPs much above guidance for now.

Friday an unsettled NW flow aloft brings another round of late day
showers and isolated thunderstorms for all but SE Utah. After a
cool Thursday-Friday a warming trend begins. The next upper low
drops in from British Columbia over the weekend backing the flow
to SW again. This trough deepens along the California coast early
next week and may pass through this forecast area on June 2nd or
so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Dry southwest flow will be in place across eastern Utah and
western Colorado for the next 24 hours. There is a less than 20
percent chance for late afternoon showers over the higher terrain
with gusty outflow winds to 40 mph the primary impact. Terminal
sites will remain VFR through the period.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JDC



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