Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 312112
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A VERY WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS HELPING ADD A BIT OF DYNAMIC LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALL OVER
RIDGES...WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. THE STRONGER CELL OVER NORTHEAST
UT SHOULD PUSH A BOUNDARY AND SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
ADJACENT UINTA BASIN. BELIEVE THIS AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CONVECTION WILL TRAVEL EAST AND ACROSS MOFFAT COUNTY...CO THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS TERRAIN INFLUENCE SO EXPECT
THE STORMS TO BE LESS INTENSE. THE REST OF THE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS ANOTHER LITTLE WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE RIDGES OF WESTERN CO...WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH A FEW OF THEM.

THE CENTRAL AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES
INLAND ON MONDAY. A NOTICABLE INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND PAC NW
TROUGH INTERACT. THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INITIATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE LEFT END (SOUTHWEST FLOW) OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
REIGN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE WEEK CONTINUES...KEEPING
DRIER AIR AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH WHICH WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
GROUND WITH NO DYNAMICAL FORCE. THE GFS, EC, AND CMC ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LONG TERM MODELS ARE PROGGING
THE REMAINS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO GET CAUGHT IN THIS DOMINENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WITH ALL TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IN THE LONG RANGE THERE COULD BE MAJOR DEVIATIONS IN THE
TRACK OF THE STORM IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THAT BEING
SAID...CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A CLOUDY AND WET
WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD KEEP
THE POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LAYERED MID AND HI CLOUD WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS NW CO...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
CRAIG TO RANGELY TO RIFLE. NO IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT ANY
TAF SITES OR OTHER AIRPORTS IS EXPECTED. HIGHEST MT TOPS WILL BE
BRIEFLY OBSCURED AT TIMES. THE MTS OF WESTERN CO AND NE UT WILL
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH NO IMPACT ON FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE
CONTINUED VFR.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...CC


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