Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 040820
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
220 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE CWA WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO EXPECTED WEATHER. PLENTY OF SUN
CONTINUES WITH MODELS STILL HINTING AT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM CONSIDERABLY TODAY AS WIND FLOW ALLOWS WARM AIR TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY THOUGH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL START TO AFFECT OUR
WEATHER. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOME
ALLOWING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. THE
LOW WILL ALSO ALLOW MOISTURE CONTENT TO INCREASE. DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASED INSTABILIY WILL LIKELY WORK ON THIS MOISTURE TO
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE THOUGH NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD YET. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE WARMEST VALUES
YET SEEN THIS YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL FORCE
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT BROUGHT THE NICE WEATHER TO OUR EAST.  THE
INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALSO CARRY MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD
SUSTAIN SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EASES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY STRENGTHENING THE WIND GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT SHOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM CENTER SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AT AND BELOW 10000 FEET SO ANTICIPATE LIMITED IMPACTS DUE
TO SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...THOUGH COOLER...WILL BE BUOYED BY CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY CROP THREATENING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGR


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