Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 262336
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
536 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED JUST OVER A HALF INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A FEW HEAVY RAINERS. WBZ
HEIGHTS UNDER 6K SUGGEST SUPPORT FOR HAIL WITH A FEW RADAR
SIGNATURES SUPPORTING THAT EXPECTATION. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE GRIDS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHTS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOS TEMPS
APPEAR ON TRACK AND NO REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WORKS INTO AZ AND PHASES WITH THE
IDAHO LOW FOR A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME JET SUPPORT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES.
MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP FOR LATE MAY...AROUND 0.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED INSTABILITY
WITH SUBTLE COOL ADVECTION ALOFT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70.

A RIDGE AMPLIFIES INLAND FROM OFF THE BAJA SATURDAY...OVER THE
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY...AND ONTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. EXPECT A STRONG
WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
ONE CAVEAT IS A BACK DOOR FRONT TRYING TO PUSH WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CONVECTION FROM PAGOSA SPRINGS
NORTH TO LAKE CITY AND MONARCH PASS.

TUESDAY THE NEXT TROUGH ORIGINATING OFF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WORKS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER THE
REGION WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUDS POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO NE UTAH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH ILS
BREAKPOINTS BEING MET FOR MANY TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 03Z THOUGH SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. ALL
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR AFTER 06Z AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FIRES OFF MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. EXPECT VCSH AND VCTS FOR SOME TAF SITES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH MAIN CONCERNS BEING HEAVY RAIN DROPPING
CIG/VIS...SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH OR SO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR



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