Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 111736
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1136 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-NMM...HRRR...AND
DOWNSCALED 5KM NAM INDICATED A THIN RIBBON OF LIGHT SHOWERS
FORMING OVER THE BOOKCLIFFS TO THE FLAT TOP MOUNTAINS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD
TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST EAST OF THE ROCKIES MAY GENERATE ENOUGH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER NW COLORADO FOR THIS TO OCCUR. NOT FULLY
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN (FOR EXAMPLE THE WRF-
ARW DOES NOT SHOW ANY SHOWERS OVER NW COLORADO)...BUT THIS IS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO. IF THESE SHOWERS DO FORM...QPF WILL BE VERY
LIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS...BOOSTED WINDS FROM THE
UINTA BASIN THROUGH NW COLORADO AS GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH WILL
OCCUR AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES NW COLORADO FROM WYOMING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ZONE 2
(CRAIG AND MEEKER AREAS)...BUT WILL AWAIT ALL MOS GUIDANCE BEFORE
UPGRADING THE FREEZE WATCH TO WARNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
ZONE 5 (STEAMBOAT SPRINGS) MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

EXPECT SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.
THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EDGE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL TRAIL THIS
FEATURE SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER PREFRONTAL
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR TO SLOSH INTO AREAS
OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE
CRAIG/MEEKER REGION AS 00Z MOS GUIDANCE IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 28
DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY
LOW ESPECIALLY UP NORTH...SO EXPECTING A CRYSTAL CLEAR NIGHT. A
LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE PROPAGATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION. ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN
THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPING.

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MIDWEEK AS FLOW
CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA IS
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR FROM KRIL-KEGE AND THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM 20Z-02Z TODAY. LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS TO 25KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRFIELDS OVER NE UTAH AND NW
COLORADO...RESULTING IN SOME MECHANICAL CHOP.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ002.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/NL
AVIATION...PF



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