Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 071736
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1136 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AS STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
FIRE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SAN JUANS. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE STILL KEYING IN ON THE SOUTHERN CWA UNDER THE BETTER MOISTURE
PLUME AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND
FORECAST AND MAY MAKE A SMALL TWEAK UPWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
THREATS OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO BE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH AN AXIS ORIENTED FROM NORTHERN
NEVADA SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION. CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS KEPT THE DEEPEST
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO REMAIN FAVORED...THOUGH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TAKE A HANDFUL OF CELLS OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS
LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE AND WIND PROFILE REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS SO EXPECT CELLS TO BE SHORT-LIVED. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH ...OTHERWISE MAIN THREAT FROM
TODAY/S STORMS IS STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. DOUBTFUL THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE MUCH...SO EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY TO START THE WEEK.

CONVECTION WILL AGAIN WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SOUTH. A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL TAKE PLACE ON TUE AS THE LARGE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL REACH AN INCH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THEREFORE WE CAN EXPECT
TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE SOUTH AS USUAL IN THIS PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

THE MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE TUE EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REACHING 1.25 INCHES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL TAKE LONGER TO WIND
DOWN...WITH SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

BY WED AFTERNOON THE FLOW WILL HAVE TAKEN ON A DISTINCT SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE DIRECT TAP TO THE DEEPER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCREASE IN THE
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WITH THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FLOW...THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WETTING RAINS...TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS WELL. HOWEVER SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO WILL STILL
REMAIN FAVORED. THE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT SO STORM MOVEMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES DUE
TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO PERCOLATE OVER THE SAN
JUANS LATE THIS MORNING...WHERE THE BETTER OVERALL MOISTURE
RESIDES. AS SUCH KTEX STANDS THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATION DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AND HI-LITED THIS
IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST. COVERAGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LEAVES CONFIDENCE LOWER. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING WINDS
DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND APPLIED TO AMENDMENTS AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT


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