Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 240528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1128 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Issued at 905 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory. Latest radar not picking up
any precipitation over the Colorado mountains and models indicated
little to no additional snowfall is likely during the remainder of
the night.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Closed upper level low over Nevada will slowly move eastward to
NE Utah by noon Sunday. Because of the slow progression of this
closed low, a band of showers picking up moisture from the Gulf
of California will slowly trek eastward across western Colorado
through tonight. With cold air advecting into the region with this
baroclinic zone, snow levels have lowered to near 9000 feet, with
snowfall accumulations this morning on top of the Grand Mesa
above 10,000 feet from 4 to 6 inches. Winter weather advisories
continue for the West Elks, Flattops and Grand Mesa for locations
above 10,000 ft through midnight tonight.

A dry slot behind this swath of moisture will move into most of
western Colorado overnight...with the closed low in Utah producing
rain and snow showers over NE Utah by Sunday morning. Forecast
models indicate development of rain and snow showers in the
Elkhead, Park, and Gore Ranges Sunday afternoon in favorable
northwesterly flow. Accumulations look to be light, and will end
sometime in the evening. Snow in the eastern Uinta mountains
should end by midnight Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

General troughiness continues over the region on Monday, keeping
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Long term model models diverge on Wednesday with the development
of a closed low system over the southwestern US, indicating the
next weather system moving into the Four Corners sometime in the
last week. Timing and extent of this system is not well
established at this time, and long term NCEP ensembles not
indicating a particularly strong signal on this feature. That
being said, long range models indicate another multi-day
precipitation producing system moving in by the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Low clouds and showers will impact the KVEL terminal through the
next 12 hours. Moderate probability that cigs could impact flight
operations as ILS break points are at least met. Otherwise drier
air to the east looks to keep VFR conditions in place through the
next 24 hours. Late day cigs in the vcnty of KEGE could push the
ILS break point there but confidence is not high. Lastly
precipitation and clear skies overnight could produce some local
areas of fog but confidence there is also low that impacts will be
at the forecast terminals.




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