Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 262123
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
323 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Plenty of convection fired again this afternoon as higher amounts
of moisture remain in the atmosphere while daytime heating helped
destabilize the atmosphere. Most convection is hugging the higher
terrain though some showers and storms will drift into valleys as
they day progresses. Some heavy rainers are expected along with
some gusty winds of 40 to maybe 50 mph at times. Temperatures
will remain hot.

By Wednesday, high pressure will shift westward and get
centered over the Great Basin. This will cause a downtick in
precipitable water and convection as subsidence sets up overhead
and flow becomes more west to northwest. Any convection that does
form will be less intense and have much less coverage than seen
lately. Temperatures will still run hot

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

The center of high pressure will meander across the desert
southwest through Sunday and looks to keep convection to a
minimum. A few showers and storms will fire each afternoon but
coverage looks to be isolated at best favoring the San Juans.

On Friday, a trough will move across the eastern half of the
nation and break down a strong area of high pressure off the
Florida coast. This breakdown will allow our high pressure to
start shifting east causing a return to southerly flow which will
draw in moisture to the region. Some spotty precipitation will
start Saturday into Sunday with more widespread convection
expected Monday onwards as monsoonal moisture returns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Scattered thunderstorm and shower coverage will begin first over
higher terrain this afternoon then begin to impact TAF sites after
22z and continue through 04z. Brief heavy rain may impact
CIGS/VSBY especially at our higher elevation TAF sites with gusty
outflow winds possible at all TAF sites. Otherwise VFR conditions
will dominate through Wednesday.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR


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