Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 171703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1103 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 910 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The core of the strongest winds aloft are shifting east of the
divide this morning and most mountain areas have dropped well
below advisory criteria. A few localized gusts over 50 mph will
still be possible in the high country through the afternoon but
overall conditions will be improving. Light showers along the
Wyoming border will be dropping into the northern Colorado
mountains through the day as a cold front progresses through the
region. Still expecting any accumulations to be near and above
timberline though snow should be falling as low as 8500 feet.
Temperatures cooler across the state today but especially the
north where high temperatures have been met for the day and will
continue to fall or stay steady.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The current IR satellite image is showing mostly clear skies
around the area this morning with some high clouds in place over
Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado. Breezy conditions
are lingering around the area this morning as a surface boundary
continues to sag south into Eastern Utah and Western Colorado.

This surface boundary will cool temperatures down around the area
today. On average most locations will see afternoon high
temperatures ranging between 5 to 10 degrees cooler than those
observed on Sunday. The coolest temperatures will be north of
I-70. Along with the cooler temperatures showers will be a
possibility today for the northern portion of the CWA as the
surface boundary moves south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Another piece of the strong polar jet and upstream energy will
drop into the Pacific Northwest Monday evening and approaches our
region by mid to late afternoon. The trend of this passing system
continues to be a weakening one in the major models. This seems
mainly due to minimal moisture advection from the northwest.
Instability and general upward lift appears to be better focused
over our northern zones through Tuesday evening but again snow
amounts look on the light side. Significantly cooler air moves in
behind this wave and temperatures look to end up on the low side
of normal for at least Wednesday before we begin another dry and
warm stretch. The jet stream retreats well to the north to end the
week with a dominate ridge building in across the west.
Temperatures should return to above normal Friday and persist
through at least the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A cold front stretched northeastward from just south of KPUC to
near KSBS at 1745Z. North of the front a broad area of light to
moderate showers were occurring which had resulted in brief IFR
conditions at KDWX, but otherwise hadn`t lowered CIGS and VSBY
below VFR conditions.

The front is forecast to continue southward at roughly 12 KTS
moving to the northern face of the San Juan Mountains by
00Z/Tuesday before easing to the southern Colorado border by 06Z.
Showers will continue to trail the front but will become less
likely over TAF sites as the focus for precipitation shifts to the
mountains. Consequently, will mention showers in vicinity for TAF
sites along the I-70 corridor this afternoon, but not beyond
00Z/Tuesday. Strong west to northwest wind gusts to near 45 MPH
are possible with frontal passage based on reports from KCAG and
KEEO. Ahead of the front, expect breezy southwest winds from 15 to
20 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Once the front is through winds will diminish giving over to light
drainage flows for the most part during the late evening through
18Z/Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites during
the nighttime period.






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