Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 301009
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
409 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. 00Z/TUE KGJT
SOUNDING HELD A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AT
0.81 OF AN INCH. 00Z/TUE GFS MODEL BUFR SOUNDING BETTER
INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND SHOWED LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 1300
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. KDRO
EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 48 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATE MONDAY
SO EXPECT SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS HAIL BUT SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZED CELLS
THAT PRODUCE LARGER STONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DON/T LOOK FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVE TO TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO WED EVENING AS INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LAST OF THE UPLIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY CENTRAL CO IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN CAUSING A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP
THE FORECAST AREA TO MORE MOISTURE SW FLOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...INSTEAD OF THE SAN JUAN
MTNS AND SW CO OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z BELIEVE
KEGE...KASE...KGUC AND KTEX WILL SEE STORMS IN THE VICINITY...WITH
ABOUT AT 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE
AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN
PEAKS AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



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