Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 202119
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
219 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Convective instability leading to scattered snow showers across
the region this afternoon, focused mainly across the central
portions of the forecast area. Spotty accumulations around an inch
or two have occurred so far and activity will be diminishing this
evening as the sun goes down. Expect clearing and cold conditions
across the region tonight with temperatures dropping below zero
again across our higher valleys.

Wednesday will be another transition day with mainly dry
conditions expected in southwest flow. Mid and high level moisture
will be increasing throughout the day with dense cloud cover
anticipated by late afternoon. Few flurries or light snow showers
possible over the peaks, but nothing significant. Models are in
good agreement with driving a strengthening wave northeastward
across the Four Corners Wednesday night and Thursday. RER of 120
kt H3 jet sets up near the Southwest San Juans. Surge of low level
moisture combined with favorable jet dynamics and south to
southwesterly H7 flow will drive another round of moderate to
potentially heavy snowfall into the southwest San Juans and into
the Pagosa Springs area. Gradient looks fairly tight between
Durango and Pagosa with 3 to 6 inches possible east of Bayfield
with number falling off below 3 inches to the west. Any shifting
around of the flow or final placement of the upper level jet will
adjust final output and for now will be going with advisory level
snowfall. Snow lingers through midday Thursday before shutting
down as we wait for the next system that is now targeting a Friday
arrival.

Cold temperatures will moderate slightly over the next 24 hours,
although readings will remain on the cooler side of normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 154 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Active weather will continue through this extended period with the
models loading up on another two systems that will be driving
through. The EC and GFS are driving another strong jet through the
area Friday with deep southwest flow lifting up and over the
southwestern mountains. Approaching longwave trough and cold
advection will bring more snow to the region. Trough axis with
this wave is expected to move through Friday night with showers
lingering through Saturday morning. Flow then swings back to the
northwest with another fast moving Pacific wave expected to roll
through Sunday and Sunday night. Expect things to dry out and calm
down just a bit Monday and Tuesday, but more energy will be
filling out another trough across the western U.S. that will bring
more snow to the area by midweek. Temperatures are expected to run
around 5 degrees below normal each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1037 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Conditions continue to slowly improve this afternoon as showers
dissipate and CIGS lift with most TAF sites slowly returning to
VFR. However, unstable air in the wake of last night`s storm will
produce scattered showers over the higher terrain and this could
again quickly drop VFR to LIFR as snow moves through at some
mountain sites such as KTEX and KASE. Wind gusts to 30kts or so
can be expected near showers.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 6 PM MST Thursday
     for COZ019-023.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGJT



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