Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 140434
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1034 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

UPDATED TO ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO END OVER THE ROAN
AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY...
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN. IN
THE FIRST CASE...WARMING TOPS OVER THE ROAN CONSISTENT WITH
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN MODELS OVER THE AREA WITH NO
ADDITIONAL QPF GENERATED. AS FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN...SNOW HAD NOT
MATERIALIZED DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME PERIOD.
EVEN PESSIMISTIC SREF ONLY GENERATING 0.1 TO 0.15 INCHES QPF OVER
THE AREA. NAM12 MORE STINGY SUGGESTING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHADOW
THE VALLEY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER
OVER THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 454 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CONSIDERABLE SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS EVENING SO HOISTED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP LAYER QG ASCENT MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM NORTH
AND WEST...SNOW LEVELS LOWERED QUICKLY AND IN SOME INSTANCES BELOW
6000 FEET WHERE MONTROSE RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF SNOW. SNOTEL DATA
IS MISSING AT THIS TIME AND HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO QUANTIFY
SNOWFALL. AVAILABLE WEB CAMS SHOW PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA TO THE TELLURIDE AREA...WITH LOWER
ELEVATIONS RECEIVING RAIN OR WET SNOW. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...FROM THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU SOUTH TO CORTEZ.
THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT ADDS COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST...INTENSE
SNOW BURSTS OR SQUALLS BRING WIDE VARIABILITY TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCES. MUCH OF THE REGION...OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH...RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT PCPN...AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICAL
LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE.

THERE ARE A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE SNOW...THIS
INCLUDES THE GUNNISON VALLEY WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THAT LOCATION. CERRO SUMMIT TENDS TO BE THE PRIMARY
TARGET OF THE GUNNISON VALLEY...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE TOWN COULD BE
A TARGET FOR AN OUTBURST OF HEAVY SNOW. HIT THIS ZONE HARD WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE. CRAIG TO STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS TO OAK CREEK IS ANOTHER PROBLEM SPOT...BUT BELIEVE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL STAY GENERALLY BELOW 3 INCHES. NORTH WINDS CHANNELED
FROM OAK CREEK TO YAMPA MAY RECEIVE MORE THAN 3 INCHES AND WILL
ADDRESS THIS WITH A NOWCAST.

BY LATE EVENING...QG DESCENT TAKES HOLD FOR RAPID CLEARING FROM
THE WEST AND SNOW ENDING OVER WRN COLORADO. MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WITH BLOSSOMING FRUIT TREES...FREEZE WARNING WILL BE
HOISTED FOR THE GRAND AND UNCOMPAHGRE VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT.

LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES OVER HIGH COUNTRY WILL BE ENDING MONDAY
MORNING. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH AND THAT WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE...OR WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
ONLY 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED AT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME NRN MOUNTAIN SPOTS STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANOTHER COLD
SPRING NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWING OVERNIGHT
LOWS NOT AS COLD AS WARMING ALOFT WILL BE UNDERWAY...HOWEVER
VALLEY TEMPS WHERE TENDER VEGETATION IS BLOOMING MAY DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE ENERGY IS
A BIT MORE SPLIT THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM WITH THE FIRST PIECE
SKIMMING JUST TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEN...LIKE THIS STORM...A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES IN
BEHIND THE FIRST. THE ASCENT FROM THIS ENERGY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY
A CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET NOSING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SPRING ANOTHER ROUND OF A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND ALL THIS COMBINED
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS STORM IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG BUT WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE OVER
OUR CWA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FOCUS
WILL BE IN THE FRONT RANGE THANKS TO UPSLOPE BEHIND A PLUNGING
COLD COLD FRONT. THIS STORM IS ALSO A TAD WARMER BUT WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
MAY BE NECESSARY. FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE SETTING UP...BRINGING A MUCH DRIER
AND WARMER SCENARIO TO CONCLUDE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO ERN CO...IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITY IN SNOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT NEARER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND IN THE NWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAIN/MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS WILL PERSIST IN THESE AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE. N TO NW
FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MVFR CIGS ACROSS
NW CO VALLEYS IN UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH 12Z-14Z MON. KMTJ COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH 12-14Z MON IN THIS PATTERN. DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL OF ERN UT AND WRN C0 BY
18Z MON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ005-017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ012-018.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ004-009-010-
     013.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ006-011.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAD



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