Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 131649

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

High pressure over the western U.S. will keep northwest flow aloft
over our area through early next week. Lingering low level
moisture and favorable orographic flow will keep a few snow
showers banked up against the Continental Divide northeast of
Steamboat Springs through this afternoon, otherwise dry
conditions are expected over the next few days. Little change
expected with temperatures as we continue to run 5 to 10 degrees
above normal across the bulk of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

Narrow...highly amplified ridge is still forecast to be aligned
over far western NOAM with ginormous troughs upstream and
downstream. A lobe of energy dropping through the eastern trough
will be sending down another shot of cold air down the front range
of the Rockies on Monday and suspect most precipitation will be
attributed to the upslope and the cold air deepens to our East.
However some chance of snow will be seen along our northern and
central divide mountains as this energy and cold air slide by. As
this lobe continues to drop into the downstream trough it will
become more aligned longitudinally and this will allow energy from
the upstream trough to break into the ridge over the Rockies by
mid-week. Really disappointed with the run to run consistency of
the models and then agreement between the model suites. Not much
to hang a hat on yet except that light warm advective
precipitation is possible on Wednesday. What cold air or wrap
around moisture we get is still not well defined. The storm is
still probably going to be too progressive to produce big snow
numbers but anything helps at this point. By late in the week main
E.Pac trough will be allowed to spread across the the West as the
upstream trough rotates into the higher latitudes. This is a
fairly significant gyre of energy accompanied by colder air and
hopefully a good batch of Pacific moisture. This storm not likely
to impact our area until late Friday so besides some light
precipitation in the midweek period warm and dry conditions


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 949 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. A weak disturbance is bringing some lowered CIGS
to north central Colorado including ILS breakpoints at KRIL, KEGE
and potentially KASE. These lowered cigs may persist through 12z




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