Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 301533
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. RABBIT EARS TO VAIL PASS SAW SNOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT CDOT WEBCAMS INDICATE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT
ROADS ARE NOW WET. DID ADJUST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z
SOUNDING AT GJT THIS MORNING STILL SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW SPEED SHEAR WILL KEEP
SHOWERS FROM DRIFTING INTO THE VALLEYS MUCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY. SURFACE GRADIENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TOWARD LAV GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO THE PLAINS...ANOTHER
FOLLOWS FROM THE WEST. WRAPAROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM THE LOW TO OUR EAST AND WILL BE
ENHANCED FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE CLOSED
LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA TODAY
AND WILL ADD MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS. THIS ALL MEANS THAT
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A FEW ISOLD
STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.  SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE SPARSE.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING PRECIP TO OUR SRN VALLEYS AND THE SAN JUANS.
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBABLE FOR
THE SAN JUANS BUT WITH THE LAST SEVERAL STORMS...IMPACTS TO ROADS
APPEARED NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY...ANTICIPATE MORE OF THE SAME
MEANING MOSTLY WET ROADS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LOW OPENS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT PRECIP
FROM THE BOOK CLIFFS/ROAN/TAVAPUTS DOWN SOUTH...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS USUAL. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY
THIN AND WEAK PORTION OF THE JET STREAM WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO FIRE. WEDNESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA
BRINGING SOME WELL DESERVED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
CWA. THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW COMES ASHORE
OVER SRN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...STORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS
THAN SEEN YESTERDAY. EVEN SO...MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL BE THE RULE WITH
OCCNL BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME. TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH SOME DROPS TO MVFR...MAYBE EVEN IFR...POSSIBLE IF
A STORM OR HEAVIER SHOWER DRIFTS OVER AN AIRPORT. AFTER
00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD START IMPROVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THOUGH SOME MTN SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR


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