Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 162142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
342 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

The darkening showing in this afternoons water vapor imagery is
the leading edge of the 160+kt jet core diving around the
anomalously strong low off the left coast. As this jet continues
to swing toward the Great lakes region over the next 24 hours the
system across the northwest will be sheared apart. The main piece
of energy ejected out of the system will be crossing the northern
Rockies early Monday...dragging moisture and lift across our
northern zones. Hand analysis of the surface at 18Z showed the
cold front limping into far northern Moffat and Daggett Counties a
feature not picked up by models. The biggest impact is to
temperatures...which cooled some 10 degrees with the
the atmosphere is too disorganized attm to produce precipitation.
A surface low running along the front ahead of the upper wave
looks to force the front back northward after sunset. The focus
for heavier precipitation lies just to our north as the
approaching wave and exit region of the jet align to produce a
well defined area of mid-level fronto overnight. This feature
will be forced southward near sunrise though it will be weakening
as the jet core and direct circulation moves eastward through the
morning hours. The surface front will be forced back southward as
the upper dynamics move in and bring showers to the north. The
best chances for precipitation will be along and north of Highway
40. Snow levels dip to near 8500 feet though expect the highest
accumulations at or above timberline where 2 to 4 inches are
possible. Should be a nasty day on top of the Park Range with snow
showers and continued gusty winds through tomorrow afternoon.
Temperatures will cool by some 10 degrees across the north to 5
degrees in the far south tomorrow. Drying and subsidence behind
the lead wave should allow precipitation to quickly take a
downturn tomorrow evening with a cooler night on tap.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Another piece of the strong polar jet and upstream energy will
drop into the Pacific Northwest Monday evening and approaches our
region by mid to late afternoon. The trend of this passing system
continues to be a weakening one in the major models. This seems
mainly due to minimal moisture advection from the northwest.
Instability and general upward lift appears to be better focused
over our northern zones through Tuesday evening but again snow
amounts look on the light side. Significantly cooler air moves in
behind this wave and temperatures look to end up on the low side
of normal for at least Wednesday before we begin another dry and
warm stretch. The jet stream retreats well to the north to end the
week with a dominate ridge building in across the west.
Temperatures should return to above normal Friday and persist
through at least the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Very strong west to southwest winds will create areas of mountain
turbulence overnight. Through sunset some of the valleys will see
these winds mixed to the surface and create gusts of 35 to 45 mph.
VFR conditions should prevail at all the TAF sites over the next
24 hours. A small probability of showers near Vernal will occur
from near sunrise through noon but should not impact flight


CO...Wind Advisory until 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ003-004-009-010-012-

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-002-005>008.

UT...Wind Advisory until 9 AM MDT Monday for UTZ023-025-028.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ024-027-029.



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