000
FXUS65 KGJT 200501
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1101 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Beautiful start to the work week across eastern Utah and western
Colorado with just some high cirrus streaming across the area on
satellite this afternoon. As anticipated, the main story for much
of the week continues to be the hot temperatures with triple digit
heat on the agenda for the Four Corners region as well as the
Grand Valley for Tuesday afternoon. A strong ridge of high
pressure building in from the southwestern CONUS is responsible
for the string of above normal temperatures and the heat wave
shows no sign of slowing down as the high remains stagnant for the
next few days. More on that in the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The hot, near record temperatures will continue through Thursday
as the high remains centered over Arizona/New Mexico. No changes
were made to the ongoing Heat Advisories for the valleys of
southeastern Utah and the Grand Valley with everything expected to
drop off late Thursday. A broad trough looks to dig into the
northwestern CONUS on Thursday which will allow the high to
retreat further south and bring cooler temperatures to our area
for Friday and into the weekend. Extended model guidance is
hinting at a return to the mid 80s for a few valleys which I`m
sure would be quite welcome after the stretch of 100 degree days!

As the trough continues to dig further inland Thursday evening and
beyond the upper level gradient will tighten, allowing winds to
increase. This could see the return of critical fire weather
conditions to portions of the forecast area for the end of the
week and the weekend but confidence is not too high at the
moment. While the low humidities look to be a slam dunk, winds are
just borderline to Red Flag criteria at this time so definitely
encourage later shifts to keep an eye on this situation throughout
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the mountains during the
latter part of the afternoon and into the evening. Outflow winds
may impact TAF sites, especially those closest to higher terrain.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain hot and VFR conditions with
any developing ceilings above 18,000 feet MSL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A flood advisory has been issued for the Roaring Fork River in
Aspen as snowmelt and tunnel closures upstream have caused the
river to reach bankfull. This advisory will run through Friday
evening.

A number of streams and creeks also continue to run strong, cold,
and high and will continue to do so through the week. Where water
is running high, river banks may become saturated and unstable.
Lowlands along the rivers may also become inundated with water.
Remember if you are going to raft, kayak or tube on the rivers be
sure to always wear a life jacket.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM MDT Thursday for COZ006.

UT...Heat Advisory until 10 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...NL
HYDROLOGY...TGJT