Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 280037
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
637 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

RADAR THIS AFTERNOON A BIT MORE SUBDUED COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
HOWEVER UPSTREAM MOSAIC SHOWS PLENTY OF ACTION ASSOCIATED WITH A A
PV LOBE ROTATING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...AROUND THE PARENT
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. VORTICITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
EXIT REGION OF A JET LEVEL SPEED MAX WHICH IN TURN IS TIGHTENING A
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DROPPING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE RELEASED BY THE FRONTO BAND AND KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS RUNNING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH SUNRISE.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH AND POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AFTER SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT
LOOK A BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THURSDAY THE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND LINGERS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING JET
SUPPORT OVER A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS NORTH OF I-70. A FEW THOSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. STORM INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT SOME STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A QUICK AND DRAMATIC TRANSITION FROM COOL TO WARM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF MAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
THE CULPRIT IS A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SW THAT WILL WORK
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT A FRONT RANGE COOL FRONT WILL BACK UP
AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND THE PAGOSA
SPRINGS AREA. MOISTURE AND STORM COVERAGE ERODE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT LIMIT INSTABILITY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK WILL GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF STRONG MELTING
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING. EXPECT A RISE IN STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED UNTIL
PERHAPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT THEY ARE WEAKENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. UNSETTLED WX
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z HOWEVER. AFTER THAT...A BAND OF PRECIP
WILL MARCH EASTWARD GENERALLY AFFECTING AN AREA SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE BOOKCLIFFS...SOUTH TO THE THE GRAND MESA. EVEN SO...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES. FOR TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME
STARTING FROM AROUND 17 TO 18Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TAP AGAIN. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH SOME PEA TO MAYBE
MARBLE SIZED HAIL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR


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