000
FXUS65 KGJT 250911
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
311 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The current satellite water vapor image is showing yesterday`s
storm system now centered over central North Dakota dragging it`s
cold front through the Great Plains. High pressure is now building
in over the Western CONUS. Currently the IR satellite image is
showing clouds beginning to scatter out as cool dry northwesterly
flow fills in behind the departing storm system.

The 0000Z NAM12, GFS20 and ECMWF have all initialized well with
the current synoptic weather pattern and remain in good agreement
through at least Monday night. All three models show high pressure
steadily building over the western states, providing clear skies
and dry weather through Monday night. These conditions will spark
a warming trend for the forecast area, which should result in a very
nice fall day today and Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Upper level ridging will be migrating east Monday night and
Tuesday with southwest flow returning by midweek. Pattern looks to
remain dry through Tuesday before moisture starts lifting back
north into the southern zones on Wednesday as the remnants of
another tropical system get caught up in the flow. ECMWF and GFS
in decent agreement with kicking a wave out across the forecast
area Thursday with additional energy to follow through the
weekend. So after a slow start to this extended period, things
will become more interesting as we close out the week with rain
and mountain snow returning to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1021 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Clouds with some showers will continue to stream into the area
from the north late this evening and into the late night hours.
However moisture will diminish with a general clearing trend
becoming more apparent by around 08z. The cloud deck is mostly
mid level, but north of and along the Colorado Tavaputs Plateau
and the Flat Tops clouds will be lower until around 09z with MVFR
or even IFR conditions possible. Mountain obscurations in fog, low
clouds or snow will be likely along the Divide from the central
Colorado mountains northward becoming more spotty towards dawn. In
addition, a few valley areas may see fog develop late tonight and
then persist until the daylight hours. Airfields most likely to be
affected will be KCAG, KHDN, KSBS and TAF site KASE. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected and will spread area wide by mid morning.
Mostly clear skies will then dominate through Sunday evening.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...EH