Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 200526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The main concern for the short term period will be low temperatures
tonight, which have been inching near subfreezing for many lower
valleys for the past few model runs. Latest guidance shows freeze
criteria being met with cold temperatures, clear skies, and light
winds expected. As a result, have gone ahead and issued a freeze
warning for the Grand Valley and most of Southeastern Utah.

Otherwise, the end of the work week will be dominated by perfect
fall weather. Dry air will continue to take hold of the area as a
ridge of high pressure builds to the west. The upper level gradient
has relaxed considerably from earlier this week, so conditions will
not be too breezy.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

High pressure will continue to amplify going into the weekend, so
benign weather will persist. As has been the trend thus far this
month, temperatures will rebound to above seasonal - about 5 degrees
to start and peaking to around 10 degrees above normal by Sunday.

Beginning late Sunday and into Monday, a Pacific storm system will
amplify off the coast of Washington. This will turn the upper level
flow over our forecast area to the southwest. Moisture will increase
as a result, leading to the infiltration of mid- and high-level

As the Pacific low moves inland on Monday, more moisture will be
picked up in the southwesterly flow. As a result, scattered
showers will develop for our area Monday afternoon and Tuesday.
The chance for showers will continue through midweek as the
passage of a shortwave will bring a cold front through the region.
This will see the return of breezy conditions and cooler


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

VFR conditions remain in the TAFs as high pressure builds in. A
few gusty afternoon winds possible but aside from that, no
aviation concerns for the next 24 hours and beyond.


Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

No fire concerns are expected as a benign weather pattern sets up
over the forecast area and persists through the weekend. Sunny skies
with generally light winds with prevail as high pressure builds to
the west. Upper level flow will turn to the southwest going into
early next week which will see the return of breezy conditions,
increased cloud cover, and scattered showers.



CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ006.

UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Thursday for UTZ022-027-029.



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