Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 271654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN UTAH WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO
NORTHWEST COLORADO TODAY. STRONG LATE SUMMER JET AND ASSOCIATED
SHRTWV ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM EDGE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AS IT
ROLLS THROUGH. SOME DRIER AIR ALSO GETTING CAUGHT UP ALONG THE
BOTTOM EDGE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BRING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
SHOWERS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER
NORTH...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN GOING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST UTAH NEAR FLAMING
GORGE RESERVOIR. ISOLATED POCKETS OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA WHERE FAVORABLE NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. ABOVE THE 10K LEVEL...WE
ARE SEEING SOME INDICATIONS IN RADAR IMAGERY THAT WET SNOW IS
FALLING. EVENING SOUNDING HAD FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 9500 FT AND DUAL
POL RADAR MELTING LAYER SUGGESTS A CHANGE OVER ABOVE 10K NORTHEAST
OF THE GRAND MESA. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO
THE PEAKS. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS
THIS COOL AND WET SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD IMPACT TO
OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON BY
3 TO 5 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AS COLD CORE OF THE LOW SLIDES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL CO TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN
MOISTURE WRAPPED INTO THE LOW. 700 MB TEMPS COOL TO +4C OVERNIGHT
AND WITH SOME CONVECTION... SOME SNOW MAY DUST THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES ERN CO BY MIDDAY THU. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
IN W TO NW FLOW WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS AND NW VALLEYS.
BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST THU AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD BEHIND THE TROUGH. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES THU NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING DOMINATING FRIDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
MAY POP A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MTNS FRI
AFTERNOON...BUT BY AND LARGE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING A 2-
4 DEGREES OVER THU. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WA/OR
COASTLINE BY LATE FRI.

FLAT RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...BUT WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN ACTIVE LATE MORNING CONTINUES AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPIN COUNTERCLOSEWISE AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER UTAH. EXPECT AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE
DIVIDE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD/JDC
AVIATION...TGJT



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