Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 050937
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
337 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VERY DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN SE UTAH. THE UPPER
RIDGE WAS BEING DEFORMED SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH
LIFTED THROUGH NE UTAH-NW COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH
THEN TRACKS EAST ACROSS NW COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TODAY
WILL BE A WET DAY FAVORING NW COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PASSING TROUGH PRODUCES ORGANIZED FORCING. IN SPITE OF DECENT
STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH SOUTH...TO THE
EAST 25 MPH NORTH)...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FAVORING WESTERN COLORADO. DRIER AIR WORKS
OVER SE- EAST CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE DAY FOR DIMINISHING STORM
COVERAGE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWERED TO AT OR BELOW
AVERAGE UNDER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS END FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE NW CO MTNS PAST MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED TO THE SE WITH NW FLOW OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. MOISTURE ERODES WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO 1.00
INCH...WHICH IS STILL RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS. LATE-DAY SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS WHERE THE FLATTENED
RIDGE KEEPS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK SHEER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR ALMOST THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER TX AND NM. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY
REMAINS FROM THE WEST OVER ERN UT/WRN CO...THE TWO WIND FLOWS WILL
KEEP MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WX
IN THE PICTURE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RECYCLING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD...DIURNAL HEATING...FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS...AND MODERATE MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION. SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
BE HEIGHTENED DURING THE PERIOD.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRYING TREND NEXT SATURDAY AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OPENS UP AND CUTS OFF THE PLUME. BOTH EC AND GFS
AGREE ON THIS SOLN BUT WITH IT BEING SO FAR OUT...PLENTY OF TIME
FOR CHANGE. SO THE MESSAGE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS...OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...HEIGHTENED FLOODING CONCERNS.

INCREASED CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP
CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY WITH HIGHS DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING THOUGH CIGS REMAIN
HIGH...AROUND 10K FT OR SO. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION FIRES UP AROUND 18Z. ALL TAF SITES WILL
RUN THE GAMUT FROM VCSH TO -TSRA AFTER 18Z THROUGH 03Z. HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNDER THE STRONGEST CELLS DROPPING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR MANY AIRPORTS. AFTER 03Z...SOME AREAS OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...POSSIBLY FOR THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR



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