000
FXUS65 KGJT 222143
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SCATTERED THIN CIRRUS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES
...AND SUNNY SKIES BEST DESCRIBED SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE AREA
TODAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING...THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. GAVE
SOME THOUGHT TO MENTION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DOWN SOUTH BUT THIS
NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AT KDRO AND KPSO.

LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY SO EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PEAKS
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDS WITH THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...THOUGH ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MODERATE LOWS SLIGHTLY THERE. NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS EXPECTED FRIDAY DESPITE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. IN SIMILAR FASHION...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE
TO MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

A LARGE-SCALE...MALLEABLE...POSITIVELY-TILTED...BLOCKING RIDGE
LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. IT
SETS UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY-MONDAY THEN OVER THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AFTER GETTING SQUEEZED OUT INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NEXT THURSDAY IT IS PROGGED TO REBUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR THE FINAL DAYS OF JANUARY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WEAK DISTURBANCES DIVING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE ELKHEAD AND ZIRKEL
MTNS IN NORTHERN COLORADO. THEN NEXT WEEK ATTENTION TURNS TO
ENERGY IN THE SE PACIFIC/BAJA ATTEMPTING TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE.
IN THE FAVORED EC MODEL TUESDAY`S FIRST WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
TO THE WEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARDS
THIS SOLUTION. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE
HANDLING OF A STRONGER BAJA LOW NEXT THURSDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER
PRODUCING A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE
EC KEEPS MUCH OF THE ENERGY CLOSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE BLENDED FORECAST TOOL PRODUCED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND ABOVE FOR THE
NEW WEEK. PERSISTENT INVERSIONS THREATEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN THE
UINTAH AND GUNNISON BASINS SATURDAY MORNING THAT WILL TEND TO
ERODE OR DISSOLVE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 947 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

LOW STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING
KDRO...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL