Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 291742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1142 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017

The ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West will
dominate the weather pattern for today with mainly mostly sunny
skies and seasonable temperatures expected. Models have cut back a
bit on the influx of moisture and resultant convective, but still
expect isolated showers and thunderstorms over the high country
this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Moisture increases
slightly on Tuesday allowing an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
development Tuesday afternoon with the best focus over the
southern mountains of the forecast area. The biggest impact both
days will be gusty outflow winds near these showers and storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Models were consistent in shifting the ridge eastward Tuesday
night allowing more moisture to advect into southern Colorado. In
response, precipitable water levels are expected to rise on the
order of 0.10 to 0.20 inches early Wednesday. Though models don`t
show an appreciable increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage,
moist convection is expected to get started earlier and rain rates
should be increased given QPF values. Similar conditions are
expected on Thursday and to a lesser extend on Friday as adequate
moisture flux continues and another storm moves across the
northern Rockies with little impact for our area. A ridge will
redevelop over the western US by next weekend with drier
conditions and warmer temperatures expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017

High pressure is building over the intermountain west providing
the forecast area with mostly clear skies and relatively gentle
terrain driven winds. Moisture is trying to sneak its way into the
area from the southeast and may support some localized showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains of the Western Slope of Colorado.
Mid level moisture will continue to increase on Tuesday supporting
additional cloud cover and increase shower coverage.




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