Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 211733
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1133 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

A ridge to the southeast and troughing along the west coast will
provide a weakly favorable southwest flow to carry moisture into
the area today through Monday. Outflow boundaries from convection
over new mexico and the more eastern portions of the san juan
mountains will also help moisten the lower atmosphere a bit today,
resulting in a slight increase the storm development this
afternoon and evening. Have boosted the areal coverage over
southern CO and southeast UT to account for this.

Tonight through Monday the west coast trough will move east into
northern AZ and UT carrying more moisture and minor dynamics. This
will bring another uptick is areal coverage of precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

By Monday night, a deep area of low pressure will be skirting the
U.S./Canadian border while a weaker trough will be approaching the
area. This trough will keep southwesterly flow in the picture
allowing moisture to increase across the CWA and bring another
round of showers and storms. However, the best coverage for
precipitation looks to be Tuesday as the weak trough moves
overhead. All models are showing a few stronger vorticity maximas
moving overhead, indicating vertical motion, which will allow some
stronger convection.

The rest of the week will remain unsettled as a deeper trough,
extending from southern Canada and reaching the southern
California coast, slowly approaches our region. As it does,
afternoon and evening convection will be common and fairly
widespread though this can change if the trough becomes shallower
or stays further north. MOS guidance suggesting temperatures will
be at or a few degrees below normal for most areas through entire
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday noon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. Showers and
thunderstorms will affect KDRO AND KTEX after 20z and through
tonight. Ceilings at KDRO KTEX should stay above ILS breakpoints.
Outflow erratic wind gusts are possible after 22z at all TAF
sites along and south of I-70 including KDRO KTEX KCNY KMTJ KGJT
KRIL KASE KEGE.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...Joe


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