Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 150434
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1034 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

While the cold front exited our region early this afternoon,
breezy to windy conditions have persisted in its wake as the
upper level wind gradient remains tight. A few snow showers
developed as expected over the northernmost mountains today but
skies are quickly clearing as evident by the latest visible
satellite imagery. Winds should die down this evening as
northwesterly flow sets up aloft and the aforementioned upper
level gradient laxes.

The forecast area will remain under a significantly cooler
airmass, light and variable winds, and clear skies tonight
resulting in widespread freezing temperatures. The Freeze
Warnings remain on track for those few remaining valleys that
have not yet received a season-ending freeze. Several sites in
these areas, especially in the Grand Valley, could either break
or tie the record low temperature for October 15! Grand Junction`s
forecast low of 28 degrees for instance would break the current
record low of 30, last set in 1952.

Northwesterly flow will remain in control on Sunday as an area of
high pressure builds to our southwest. While temperatures will
remain below seasonal for this time of year a gradual warming
trend will begin which will continue through much of the coming
work week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The axis of the ridge of high pressure will amplify slightly into
our forecast area for Monday and Tuesday before zonal flow
develops around midweek. The dry, warming trend will continue
under this benign weather pattern with temperatures climbing to
above normal under sunny skies. An upper level trough will deepen
off the coast of the Pacific Northwest late in the week which will
put our area once again under a tightening southwesterly flow.
Extended models are in better agreement today with having the
trough move inland and into the Great Basin late Friday. However,
the Euro now appears to be the wetter and slower solution, carving
a cutoff low into the Four Corners area next weekend while the GFS
favors a weaker and more progressive solution. Regardless of the
ongoing model disagreement a return to cooler and more unsettled
weather looks highly probable for late next week and continuing
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1034 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Minimal to no concerns over the next 24 hours with high pressure
in control. VFR will be dominating the forecast under SKC
conditions.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ006.

UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ022-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...TGJT



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