Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 172342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
542 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The cold front has accelerated across the Roan and eastern Tavaputs
Plateaus this afternoon. Short term models want to hang the front
from SE UT into the Central mountains tonight as the upper flow
begins to back ahead of the next system moving into the Pacific
NW. Clearing back to the west should spread into the northeast
zones after sunset and help shut off the bulk of the snow. Very
weak reflection of wave moving in with elevated moisture over the
cold front may keep some isolated showers going over the central
divide mountains but confidence low this occurs. Wet and slushy
roadways are likely to freeze so some travel issues persist into
the overnight hours. The main Pacific wave arrives on Tuesday and
will spread precipitation into the NE UT mountains by mid
morning. This wave will also bring along a front and another shot
of cooler air. Models could still be downplaying this a bit with
what we saw happen today especially with more instability to work
with. Again cold air with and behind the front pushes snow to
below the mountain bases with models still keying on the Gore and
Park ranges. The new runs of the NAM also run some snow down to
the Northern Elks. With energy and moisture continuing into the
evening hours may have to consider some winter highlights with
this one.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A true fall like day moves in for Wednesday behind the system with
temperatures ending up the lower side of normal. There could be
some snow showers lingering across the northern Park Range in the
cool northwest flow but for the most part mainly clear skies
should be in place. It looks to be a cold Thursday morning with
some of the coldest reading found many places this fall. The Grand
Valley and the southeast Utah valleys that have not seen
widespread freezing conditions may see this occur. Warming will be
moving to end this week and persist into early next week. High
cloudiness on Thursday will be the signal of the leading edge of
the upper ridge moving in. This ridge will break down by late
weekend as another strong system digs off the left coast.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Expect VFR conditions thru the period. A cold front will continue
pushing south over east central Utah and west central Colorado
this evening before washing out south of Aspen and near the San
Juan Mtns. Will have a period of gusty northwest winds behind the
front until the inversion sets up and winds go light at most
sites. Some mid level clouds will continue from KMTJ to KASE and
north...but will also scatter out after sunset. Southwest flow
will increase again Tuesday afternoon ahead of another cold front
approaching the area. This will also yield isolated showers over
the higher terrain around KEGE and KASE.




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