Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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183
FXUS65 KGJT 250545
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 204 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

The next fast-moving trough is spreading high clouds across
northeast UT and northwest CO late this afternoon. This trough was
strengthening over the Great Basin with a strong jet rounding the
bottom of the trough and providing good uplift over NE UT. The
HRRR and HiRes bring precipitation into the mountains of NE UT by
03z and this spreads to all the CO mountains by 06Z. Most of the
area will be under the moist and unstable area between the 700 mb
and 500 mb trough between midnight and 6 AM. 700 mb temps will
range from -12 C to -16 C so this quick shot of snow should
produce up snow accumulations just shy of advisory amounts. Areas
above 9500 ft will see higher amounts but no winter weather
products appear needed at this time.

After a cloud and snowy start Sunday morning, clearing skies will
quickly spread across the area from west to east. Sunday should be
clear and cold and have adjusted many high mountains valley
temperatures down.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

Monday and Monday night should be dry with NW flow aloft and a
splitting trough digging along the west coast and northern
Rockies. The southern portion of the split is projected to close
off at 500 mb and meander over the southern U.S. border. The GFS
closes the low off too but is more progressive. Tuesday through
Wednesday the northern and southern portions of the split stay in
sync and move across UT and CO bringing a 48 hour period of snow
for the mountains and most valleys. Dynamics and orographic snow
will be weaker though because UT and CO will mainly under a
deformation zone between the two components of the split trough.
Another trough is projected to move through the area Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1045 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

Light snow showers will continue to occur through about 12Z Sunday
morning with ILS breakpoints being reached at times due to low
cigs/vsby with brief MVFR to IFR conditions. This is most likely
at mountain TAF sites and higher valley spots like KASE, KTEX,
KEGE, and KHDN. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail aside
from some lower ceilings as this quick moving system passes.
Skies will begin to clear from the west by late Sunday morning
into the afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...MDA



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