Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 252109
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
309 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CO AND NEW MEXICO WILL FORCE
WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP SMOKE
FLOWING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTH FROM ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND INTO EASTERN UT AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CO OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. THROUGH TONIGHT THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA...ACROSS WESTERN UTAH...
BUT HAVE STILL INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER SE
UT AND SW CO. THE THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
PRODUCE WARMER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECAST PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL OVER AN INCH WITH CURRENT WATER VAPOR
TRENDS LOOKING TO SUPPORT THIS INCREASE. IN FACT...ALMOST ALL OF
ERN UT AND WRN COLORADO WILL SEE THESE ABNORMALLY HIGH VALUES.
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO ALLOW MORE
CLOUDS TO FORM. WHEN THIS OCCURS...WE TEND TO SEE MORE STRATIFORM
OR `SOAKING` RAIN AS OPPOSED TO CONVECTIVE `HEAVY` RAIN. ASIDE
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THERE
IS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. YES...SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT BUT NO JET SUPPORT CAN BE FOUND WHILE LOWER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE CAPE VALUES ARE LOW AS ARE LAPSE RATES. DESPITE
ALL THAT...DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND SOME STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED TO START BEFORE VALLEYS GET INTO THE ACT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP CONSIDERABLY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WITH HIGHS DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE SEEN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

GENERAL TROUGHINESS STAYS OVERHEAD THURSDAY ALLOWING MORE PRECIP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE FRONT RANGE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERHEAD...BUT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS TO
FIRE EACH AFTERNOON. GFS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING A THIN RIBBON OF
MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WHICH WILL FURTHER AID IN
MOISTURE CONTENT. AN APPROACHING TROUGH COMING ASHORE OVER THE
PACNW ON SUNDAY WILL CAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO DEFORM AND
BECOME ELONGATED TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CAUSE LITTLE
CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER DAY TO DAY. THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECT
PERIODS OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH UNSETTLED WX FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFT INTO VALLEYS FROM TIME TO TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AND REACH AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW COLORADO
AND SE UTAH AFTER 21Z TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES OF KTEX AND KDRO. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER ERN UTAH AND
SW COLORADO. CIGS MAY FALL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KTEX/KDRO FROM
ANY PASSING SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WED
MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...CC


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