Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 160535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1135 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

The axis of high pressure over the Rockies today will flatten on
Thursday as a trough begins to move onshore tonight over the
Pacific Northwest with an embedded disturbance to our north.
On Thursday morning as the southern tail of this disturbance
brushes northern Utah and Colorado, some high level clouds will
stream into the region but move east by the afternoon. An
additional weak disturbance on Thursday night will bring more
widespread mid to upper level clouds across eastern Utah and
western Colorado, but no measurable precipitation is expected with
this passing wave. Virga may bring some gusty winds from the
Tavaputs north but with the nighttime timing of this weak wave, it
will likely just be those passing clouds. High temperatures on
Thursday will once again be well above normal, with a record or
two possible in the late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

High pressure builds over the southwestern US again on Friday,
bringing the ridge axis over Utah and Colorado again for mostly clear
skies and well above normal high temperatures, potentially setting
some record highs across the region again on Saturday. High
pressure looks to breakdown again on Saturday night as a
disturbance once again to our north brushes northern Utah and
Colorado. This weather system is the first possibility
of accumulating precipitation, most likely on Monday, and will
likely stay north of the San Juans. A much larger trough will pump
moisture in from the southwest and looks to hold together for an
arrival of next Wednesday. This system will increase the general
winds on Tuesday and bring much colder air and moisture to eastern
Utah and western Colorado on Wednesday. This will include
mountain snow for a fresh layer at high elevations. There are
major differences on the temperatures aloft with this trough/cold
front next Wednesday, so the rain/snow line will have to be
diagnosed at a later time when model convergence better arrives.
Wet conditions look to remain across the region for the latter
half of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

The ridge of high pressure will flatten as weak disturbances move
into the Pacific Northwest and pass across the northern Rockies.
This will result in some increased high level cloudiness both
Thursday morning and Thursday evening as these waves move through.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will prevail with afternoon
temperatures soaring to well above normal and near record levels
in some areas. This will result in breezy winds during the
afternoon hours due to sufficient mixing at most TAF sites. VFR
conditions will prevail throughout the next 24 hours with some
occasional mountain turbulence due to the increased westerly flow.


Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Increasing surface winds combined with near record temperatures
and rather low humidity values for this time of year may result in
heightened fire weather conditions over the weekend. The potential
will be greatest on Sunday at and below 8000 feet.


Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Very warm temperatures are expected across much of eastern Utah
and western Colorado through this weekend. This will accelerate
snowmelt resulting in increased flows on area waterways.
Temperatures are expected to cool early next week, which will help
to slow the snowmelt.




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