Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 110116
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
616 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

Short range models, radar, and satellite indicate conditions
improving across our western highlighted areas in eastern Utah and
western Colorado, so have allowed those highlights to expire. Will
continue highlights for the interior mountain zones of western
Colorado with the main activity pushing southeast across the
region behind the cold front. Light additional accumulations in
these highlighted area will be the norm, with up to 2 inches
expected. Two distinct banded regions are showing up on radar at
this time, one pushing southeast into the northern San Juans and
another moving south across the Grand and Battlement Mesas toward
the Elk mountains. Some localized heavier showers are possible
under these bands.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 109 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

Wet NW flow aloft and at mountaintop level will continue tonight
and into Thursday as the rest of the current storm system moves
into eastern CO. Snowfall will gradually end in the CO mountains
from west to east this evening with orographic snowfall continuing
over the CO northern and central mountains near the Continental
Divide through noon tomorrow. The snow should Conditions over
high mountain passes, especially Rabbit Ears and Vail passes will
continue to be degraded. Have added patchy fog tonight and
Thursday morning into the Moab and Canyonlands airport, and
Vernal basin area, due the recent precipitation and overnight
cooling expected. Patchy fog may develop in the central CO valleys
through dew points are projected to fall enough to prevent
saturation.

Improving conditions are expected across eastern Utah and the
rest of western CO, though another weak shot of snowfall is
expected Thursday night when a weak disturbance aloft rides
through the northwesterly flow. This will increase the areal
coverage of orographic snowfall mainly over the mountains of
northern and central CO, including Vail and Rabbit Ears passes.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 109 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

The slightly enhanced snowfall over the CO northern and central
mountains will decrease Friday morning and throughout the day as
a weak disturbance exits to the south and east. Then a ridge will
build over the Great Basin and spread drier air in from the west.
The best drier will begin Saturday and the ridge becomes more
established over the Great Basin.

The GFS keeps the ridge over the western U.S. through the middle
of next week, though the ECMWF solutions differs. It shows a
shortwave trough dropping into the northern and central Rockies
from the northwest on Monday, clipping the northern mountains.
The Canadian continues to produce a series of weak shortwaves
clipping the northern mountains through the weekend and early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 451 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

Cold front moving through Central Colorado mountains to SE Utah
this evening. Focus for the heavier precipitation will be near
and just behind this front through the early morning hours. The
mountain terminals of KASE and KTEX will be particularly impacted
through 11/06Z with IFR conditions likely. Adjacent valley TAF
of KRIL to KEGE and KMTJ most likely to hover around MVFR during
this timeframe as well. Slow improvement comes overnight as the
storm system moves out. Confidence is low but fog could become an
issue at KVEL...KCNY and KGJT due to the recent precipitation and
clearing skies.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ014.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ009-012-
     018-019.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon MST Thursday for COZ004-010-013.

UT...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MPM
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT



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