Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190420
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1120 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

No changes necessary for the update.

UPDATE Issued at 948 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Convection exiting the FA, now confined to the Lake of the Woods
region. West winds have settled down with gusts ending this
early evening. Will see a clear overnight give way to some clouds
in the southern valley as showers in SE MT track along the SD/ND
border arriving around 12Z. PCPN is expected to remain on the SD
side of the border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

An upper wave is currently moving through ND/MB...with drying
noted in water vapor imagery across central ND. A surface trough
lies in the Red River Valley...extending south from surface low in
Manitoba. Temps have risen to 77-81 in the Cando-Devils Lake-
Langdon area where westerly winds and more sun have prevailed.
Seeing low/mid 70s across much of the RRV and upper 60s/low 70s
further east in Bemidji to Lake of the Woods country. Believe
we`ll still see some more warmth push east as the trough
progresses eastward and clouds start to diminish late this
afternoon.

Still could see a thunderstorm or two in the north...closer to the
Canadian border with the main upper wave late this afternoon and
this evening. A few older runs of the HRRR tried to bring in some
precip to the Fargo area this evening. Latest HRRR has dropped
that although 18Z NAM still has a blip. Will keep it dry that far
south for now. Clouds will diminish and a weak cold front will
pass through the area tonight. But with westerly winds...lows
should only dip to the low 50s across the area.

Monday...the large surface low will be over Hudson Bay and high
pressure will be over Nebraska...giving westerly winds to the area
under sunny skies. Temps are expected to range from the upper 60s
northeast (Lake of the Woods) to mid 70s southwest (across SE ND).

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

The beginning of the long term will bring the end of the quiet
weather before a fairly active period commences. Upper level zonal
flow will continue with broad high pressure in place across the
upper Midwest. Monday night will see temperatures right around
normal values as clear skies give way to clouds moving in from the
west towards morning. The ECMWF depicts an area of QPF along and
south of I-94 on Tuesday while the other models remain dry.
Therefore, continued with a dry forecast with low confidence of
anything actually occurring. Although the area could see limited
sunshine, high temperatures should be able to get up into the upper
60s across the north and maybe the mid 70s in the south.

The pattern will then transition to southwest flow aloft as a strong
upper low deepens across the Pacific Northwest. This system is
progged to makes its way towards the four corners region midweek,
then head northeast towards the Dakotas by the weekend, providing
the area numerous chances for precipitation throughout the remainder
of the period.

The first appreciable wave looks to impact mainly the southeastern
half of the forecast area on Wednesday. Models are coming into
better agreement with a brief period of upper ridging building in on
Thursday so tried to cut back PoPs a bit for this time frame. Friday
into Saturday will bring the best chance for widespread
precipitation as the upper low deepens across the northern Rockies
and propagates towards the forecast area. As the low wraps up just
north of the border, much of the area could see decreasing chances
for precipitation for the second half of the weekend as a dry slot
works northward. This will need to be watched to try and pinpoint
the best areas/timing for precipitation as the event draws nearer.

Throughout the majority of the period, especially late in the work
week and weekend, the bulk of any instability looks to be across
South Dakota and southern Minnesota. Therefore, continued with the
previous thinking of mainly rain showers, except for a few rumbles
of thunder here and there during the daytime hours.

After a fairly mild Tuesday, the rest of the period will see
slightly cooler temperatures with highs generally ranging from the
mid to upper 50s across the north and mid to upper 60s in the south.
The good news is that it should be awhile before another
frost/freeze threat across the area with lows expected to remain in
the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

VFR for the next 24 hours with winds the primary concern as
gustiness will increase with daytime mixing. Gusts 20 to 30 kts
possible during the aftn at all TAF sites.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kaiser
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Kaiser



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