Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 201947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
347 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016

IMPACTS: Elevated fire danger in the afternoon and evening.

Synoptic pattern and observations:

Yet another similar day compared to the last few with the exception
of slightly warmer temperatures and some increased high level cirrus
from the south. High pressure remains overhead with dry air still
solidly in place. Scattered cumulus is congregating within the lake
breeze convergence. Deep mixing has mixed dew points down into the
low to mid 30s most areas, mainly inland away from the lake breezes.
Humidities were low once again with temperatures into the middle 70s
resulting in elevated fire danger. Winds are light aloft within the
loose/baggy height pattern, but there is a weak upper trough axis
stretched out across Lake Superior and eastern upper with steeper
lapse rates. In a narrow axis stretching into the Paradise area/far
western Chippewa county, clouds had really bursted into a near
cloudy deck there. The cirrus was ushered in by an upper level low
spinning into nrn IL. All of the forcing with that system is well
south and west of us. Even steeper lapse rates were seen along a
frontal boundary still situated across the south central provinces
of Canada. Cumulus fields there were better developed/deeper, but
have not seen any reports of rainfall as of yet.

Synoptic pattern and evolution:

Relative higher pressure will still hold across nrn Michigan through
Saturday, but things will get disrupted a little bit. A nrn stream
shortwave will shove this front into portions of nrn Michigan
Saturday afternoon. Moisture availability will be on the small side
(0.75"), but the axis of steep lapse rates (6.5-7c/km) arrives with
the front. Am still doubting any rain at this point, but an isolated
light rain or sprinkle isn`t completely out of the question. Will
not mention anything at this point.

The upper circulation in nrn IL will sort of merge with the nrn
stream wave into tomorrow, with all of it`s forcing and associated
rains working across the Ohio valley.

Lake breezes will go calm/near calm again tonight. Lake breezes are
possible tomorrow, but wind fields get a bit muddled up by the
approaching front. The trend will be for a more NW by day`s end.

The well mixed BL this afternoon, has dropped dew points into the
low to middle 30s most areas...away from the lakes. When combined
with the increased higher clouds from the south...there is little to
no threat for even isolated frosty conditions. Lowest readings will
be in the upper 30s, with most areas in the lower half of the 40s.

Highs Saturday will again be in the 70s with some low afternoon
humidity again. Fire danger will be elevated. Winds overall expected
to be more on the light side, even if there are some intermittent
gusts into the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016

Saturday night through Monday...

Very few sensible weather concerns through this period as high
pressure at the surface and aloft generally remains in control.
High pressure sliding east of Hudson`s Bay will help to push a
weak backdoor cold front through the area Saturday evening. Very
dry ambient conditions in the low levels, with forecast soundings
showing only mid/upper level moisture saturation. Although lapse
rates are fairly steep /7-8 degc/ in the mid levels, the
combination of limited moisture or forcing points toward fropa
being a wind shift with a band of mid clouds. There is low
probability of a few sprinkles, but not enough of a chance to
warrant a mention in the forecast. A very brief push of cooler H8
air behind the front on Sunday will result in slightly lower
temperatures, but still upper 60s to mid 70s in most areas. A
chilly night Sunday night, with some of the colder locations
possibly dipping into the upper 30s. Upper ridge slides across the
area on Monday, allowing warmer air to work back into the western
lakes along with tightening up the pressure gradient.

Fire weather...Marginal elevated fire weather on Sunday given
slightly cooler temperatures and possibly slightly higher dewpoints.
A greater threat of an elevated fire weather day (red flag?) on
Monday as gradient tightens up with increasing return flow on the
backside of upper ridge and warmer temperatures.  Downslope flow
east of I-75 will likely result in lower dewpoints than the guidance
numbers and will adjust downward in the forecast.


Tuesday through Friday...

Amplified ridging will continue to break down, with overall pattern
become more, though not completely, zonal. Temperatures will
continue to run above normal. Right now, there are some drawn out
rain chances through the period as the pattern transitions and some
WAA and shortwave driven showers could happen. Expect this to get
cleaned up in the next few days. Perhaps the biggest thing to keep
an eye on is the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Far from certain at this
point, but the environment could support some severe weather. Strong
return flow could get dewpoints pushing into the 60s, with decent
CAPE and shear in model soundings and fairly low wetbulb zero
heights. Low pressure to our west could bring a warm front through,
although they tend to stall out to our south. Plenty of uncertainty
right now, but worth monitoring over the next few days.



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016


High pressure and dry air remain over lower MI. Just some
scattered cumulus inland yet again for this afternoon, buried
within low level convergence of developing lake breezes. Cirrus
will also continue to push north into the airports. Winds will
turn calm/near calm again tonight...with a light easterly drainage
flow into MBL.


Issued at 344 PM EDT Fri May 20 2016

High pressure will get briefly disrupted by a frontal boundary
dropping into the region later Saturday afternoon and evening. High
pressure then regains total control for Sunday into Monday. Winds
will be light, generally under 10 kts with just some intermittent
gusts up to 20 knots. Lake breezes not as much of a lock tomorrow
afternoon, with a tendency to come more out of the NW by late
in the day as the front rolls through. Lake breezes return for
Sunday and Monday.  No advisory level winds anticipated, and with a
dry atmosphere, no rainfall outside of a remote chance at a light
rain shower/sprinkle with the front Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Dickson
LONG TERM...Mayhew/Keysor
MARINE...Dickson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.