Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 110350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1150 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES BACK THROUGH THE 40S. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES...WITH PERHAPS A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER SOGGY...BUT MILD...BEFORE MUCH
COLDER AIR SLAMS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THAT SETUP MAY WELL PROVIDE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME
LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

LITTLE WX OF CONSEQUENCE TONIGHT. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO THIN OUT
ACROSS SE SECTIONS. UPSTREAM MID-CLOUD CUMULUS DEBRIS...MARKING
THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE RETURN...WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS
INTO NORTHERN MI AFTER 06Z/2AM. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE IN MOST
LOCALES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO LOWER
TO SOMETHING CLOSE TO PRESENT DEW POINT VALUES...MID 20S TO MID
30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

OVERVIEW: COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR/HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE AREA.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING AND LOW TEMPERATURES.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING SHORTLY.  OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER DRYING HELPING TO MIX OUT
SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 20S.  GRADIENT RELAXES BY SUNSET...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  UPSTREAM LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S UNDER SIMILAR AIRMASS AND THAT WILL BE A
GOOD PROXY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS
MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.  ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING EAST/SOUTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT.  SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS LATE BUT THAT
SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

...QUIET WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN TURNING UNSETTLED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: THREE-WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
ANCHORING LONG WAVE TROUGH AXES JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE AND...OF
COURSE...DOWN THROUGH EASTERN NOAM. BUT...HEMISPHERIC TEMPS HAVE
MODERATED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO (THEY HAD TO...ITS
APRIL) WHICH HAS LEAD TO OUR OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/EASTERN CONUS. PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LONG WAVE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ALONG THE
WEST COAST LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (HERE WE GO)...
DISLODGING MORE ARCTIC AIR AND SENDING IT DOWN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. RESULTING
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A RATHER
UNSETTLED/WET PERIOD ESSENTIALLY FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...CULMINATING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW ON MONDAY DURING THE TRANSITION. A POTENTIAL
MID APRIL HEAVY SNOW EVENT JUST THE THING TO CAP OFF A FAIRLY HARSH
WINTER.

FOR THE SHORTER TERM...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...INTERVENING HIGH
PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE ANOTHER WEAK NRN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO RUN ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PULSE OF WARM
ADVECTION FORCING. INITIALLY...WAS NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THE
PROSPECTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE...GIVEN
ITS ANOTHER WEAK NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BUT...GIVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT QG-UPWARD ASCENT...ALONG
WITH SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE WE GET ANOTHER
HIGHER POP/LOW QPF EVENT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MID EVENING. SO...HAVE NUDGED UP POPS JUST
A BIT DURING THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR AND A TIGHTENING
THERMAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE ALREADY STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS
AFOREMENTIONED POCKET OF COLD AIR DESCENDS INTO THE NRN CONUS.
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS FROM THE PLAINS INTO NRN MICHIGAN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN
INITIAL WAVE RIDING UP THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WAVE/DEFORMATION ALONG AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL GRADIENT...LOW LEVEL
JET ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES SOUTH OF
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH...SHOULD LEAD TO OUR FIRST BATCH OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING INTO THE STATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR THIS CWA
AND A GOOD SETUP FOR SOME RATHER BEEFY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY MORNING...RUNNING ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH GFS/EURO/GEM SOLUTIONS DO SHOW A
FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT WITH MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AND THERMAL
LAYOUT. ESSENTIALLY...LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP
DOWN INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE
RIDES UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONT AND RIDES UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUES TO PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY BEFORE HEAVIER PRECIP
TRIES TO PIVOT BACK INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY JUST AS
THE COLDER AIR IS BLEEDING BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN. IN ALL...
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A WET HEAVY SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BUT...ALL THE INGREDIENTS HAVE TO COME
TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME...GREAT MOISTURE FEED/HEAVY QPF/COLD
ENOUGH TEMPS...ETC...TO MAKE IT HAPPEN. AND STILL LOTS OF TIME
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN FOR THINGS TO CHANCE ALTHOUGH AS NOTED
ABOVE...EURO/GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL
SEE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS
WEEKEND AND WET HEAVY SNOW FOR MONDAY WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WELL...BACK INTO WINTER AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD POCKET OF AIR
ROTATES THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL CANADA AND OF COURSE THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALL THROUGH WAY INTO THE SE STATES. EURO/GFS/GEM ALL FORECAST H8
THERMAL TROUGH TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS (CONSENSUS -10C TO -15C)
SKIRTING THE NRN GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PROGRESSING OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR TO
SAY THE LEAST THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET TEMP RECORDS ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN DURING THIS STRETCH (LOW TEMPS, RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS...
ETC). CERTAINLY FITTING FOR THIS WINTER SEASON.

WEATHER-WISE...OVERALL PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT
LEAST. THAT SAID...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...AND COULD CONCEIVABLY
BRING ANOTHER SMALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN THROUGH THE STATE (NOT
TO MENTION LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT ALTHOUGH A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL MEAN
WIND IS NOT FAVORABLE). ANOTHER "WING" OF WARM ADVECTION FORCED SNOW
MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDING AND WARMER AIR TRY TO MAKE
INROADS BACK INTO THE REGION. IN BOTH CASES...HAVE KEPT A DRY
FORECAST INTACT AT THIS POINT AS PRECIP CHANCES ARE JUST TO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS PROVIDING A SOMEWHAT BRIEF
PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD
COVER WILL SNEAK BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCT -SHRA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR.

SW TO W WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY (GUSTY AT MBL)...EXCEPT AT
APN WHERE AN ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP WINDS S TO SE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ






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