Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 251746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
146 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

Issued at 1032 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

No significant changes needed to that which was inherited.
Still watching development of diurnally driven shallow cu and
additional clouds dropping southeast off of Lake Superior. This
should bring a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies for a few
hours later this morning across eastern upper. Cu will be much
more scattered further south, with mostly sunny skies dominating
the landscape. Current thermal progs and morning diurnal trends
support inherited highs ranging from the middle 70s to middle 80s
(warmest northeast lower).


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

High impact weather potential: none.

Cold front has exited northern MI to the south and east. A few post-
frontal sprinkles were seen in far northern lower MI earlier, but
these have waned. Surface dew points are falling (especially in the
north and west), but are starting from some very high values (low-
mid 70s dew points were common at 1 am). Dew points in the low/mid
60s are still seen well back into WI and western upper MI.

Today...cold front will move to the eastern lakes today. By late in
the day, high pressure over Iowa will extend a ridge axis toward
northern MI. Convective debris mid/high clouds presently cover the
se half of the forecast area. Low clouds have been extensive near and
especially north of M-32, though a back edge is making inroads into
western Chip/Mack counties. Anticipate a general clearing from nw to
se during the morning hours, and all of northern lower MI will be
mostly sunny by early afternoon. For eastern upper, early clearing
will be somewhat temporary, with some lower clouds upstream near and
north of northern Superior. Partly sunny skies will work for most of
the day north of the bridge, with clearing late in the afternoon.

Guidance supports a still somewhat warm/humid day, but less so than
yesterday (especially on the humidity front). Dew points will
stabilize near 60f this afternoon in most areas. Cold advection will
be offset by a considerable amount of sunshine in most areas. Max
temps mid/upper 70s in eastern upper, upper 70s to mid 80s northern

Tonight...high pressure over Iowa/northern IL will continue to
provide deep dry air to the region. Mostly clear skies are expected
tonight. Reasonable shot at some fog overnight given the still-moist
BL. This is especially in northern lower MI, where pressure gradient
is more lax than to the north. Min temps mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

...Warmer again Tue-Wed then more seasonable with chances for

It looks like we will squeak out another dry day on Tuesday as
surface high pressure holds on. As the ridge shifts off to our east
Tuesday night into Wednesday, a short wave is shown to track
northward toward the Great Lakes out of the Gulf of Mexico. At the
same time, a northern stream trough drops down into the region. This
setup will clog up the flow leading to moisture/weak low pressure
stalled out over or just to our south. Will carry low end shower and
thunderstorm chances for the remainder of the forecast period (right
on through Sunday). Temperatures will be above average for late July
Tuesday and Wednesday but then fall off to near seasonable levels
starting Thursday due to lower heights in combination with some
cloud cover issues.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Few/scattered diurnally driven cu will fade away quickly heading
toward evening, leaving clear skies tonight. Sunny Tuesday, with
perhaps a few high based cu at times. Vis largely remains
unrestricted...but will need to watch for some late night br/fog
formation, particularly at KMBL.

Somewhat gusty west to northwest winds today, with light winds
tonight and Tuesday morning.


Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Somewhat gusty west to northwest winds today, behind a cold front
moving to the eastern Great Lakes. Low-end small craft advisory
conditions possible in some areas, need for any headlines will be
evaluated in the next hour. Winds die out tonight, as high
pressure in Iowa/northern IL takes control. Westerly winds return
Tuesday, a bit breezy north of Traverse City and Alpena.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.



LONG TERM...Sullivan
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