Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 210305
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1005 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Cold front has reached our far SE CWA late this evening. Colder
and drier air is quickly sweeping into the region in the wake of
the cold front. Most locations that warmed well into the 50s this
afternoon have quickly fallen into the 30s this evening. Luckily
there is virtually no precip behind the cold front...with all
precip confined along and ahead of it within the warm air. Was
able to cancel the remaining Winter Wx Advisory for Eastern Upper
Michigan earlier this evening once precip came to an end. Once the
remaining precip exits our SE CWA...expect a dry and cold night
across the Northwoods. Overnight lows will range from the teens
across Eastern Upper Michigan to around the freezing mark near
Saginaw Bay.

With respect to our flooding issues in our southern CWA...will
certainly maintain the areal flood warning for our far SE counties
where the heaviest rainfall occurred and where ongoing flooding
continues. Have issued a River Flood Warning for the Manistee
River at Sherman based on the latest forecast from the RFC...and
have maintained the Warning for the Rifle River at Sterling based
on the latest forecast as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

...Precipitation ends overnight...

High impact weather potential: Lingering light icing concerns across
eastern upper this evening. More moderate to heavy rain possible
down near Saginaw Bay.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Moisture rich deep southwest flow remains
centered across the central and lower Lakes. Strongest moisture
convergence corridor and deepest jet support has temporarily shifted
south of our area, giving us a nice reprieve from the heavy rain and
icy weather. Warm front has mixed itself north, slowly pushing into
the Tip of the Mitt counties, with readings punching well up into
the 40s and 50s just to its south. Of course, conditions remain much
cooler to its north, with much of eastern upper struggling to even
reach the freezing mark.

Weak area of low pressure and attendant cold front expected to work
slowly east across the area this evening, with deep layer moisture
plume expected along and just behind the surface front. High
pressure builds into the area later tonight and Wednesday, bring
much drier and quieter conditions along with it.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing lingering icing
concerns across eastern upper and heavy rain/flooding potential down
near Saginaw Bay tonight.

Details: Elongated area of moderate to heavy rain to our southwest
expected to push across much of northern lower Michigan later this
afternoon and evening. Heaviest/steadiest rain expected to focus
further southeast with time, with current flood warning area
expected to receive the longest duration of rain. Record setting
precipitable water values exceeding 1.25 inches and deep layer jet
support running parallel to the low/mid level frontal features
continues to support some decent additional rain totals for areas
near Saginaw Bay. Could easily be looking at another half inch or
so, with locally heavier amounts possible in transient fgen enhanced
banding structures. Flood warning already issued for this region
earlier today with reports of plenty of standing water and nuisance
type flooding. Expect this to continue, perhaps even growing in
magnitude if heavier rain totals are indeed realized.

Corridor of steadiest rain looks to largely pass south of the bridge
this evening. Simple radar trends support some lighter precip
reaching eastern upper for a time, and giving lingering slow to warm
conditions expect this to take the form of light freezing
rain/drizzle. Definitely not expecting much ice, but enough to
continue the slick driving conditions. Will let inherited winter
weather headline run its course through this evening.

High pressure builds in later tonight, really taking control of our
weather for Wednesday. This will bring quieter, drier, and much
cooler weather to the northwoods, along with increasing amounts of
sunshine for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

...Yet another wintry mix system...

High Impact Weather Potential...Increasing confidence in potential
for another wintry mix on Friday, including some light icing.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Strong surface high pressure will drift
across northern Michigan Wednesday night into Thursday, pushing east
of the area by Thursday night. Increasing return flow on the
backside of this system will result in strengthening warm air
advection Thursday night into Friday, tightening the low level
thermal gradient overhead. A warm nose aloft will creep into
northern Michigan, allowing for a possible wintry mix to develop
heading into Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...More ptype concerns and possible light
icing with Friday`s system.

It`s like deja vu typing up another discussion pertaining to ptype
and icing concerns. But, such is the case with confidence increasing
in Friday`s system bringing a wintry mix to portions of northern
Michigan. Thermal profiles will be colder to begin with than they
were with the present system making its way through the region, so
we will likely start out with light snow as precipitation arrives
late Thursday night. The warm nose creeping in from the south
towards daybreak should lead to a transition to freezing rain
through Friday morning, with rising surface temperatures allowing
for an eventual south-to-north changeover to just rain late morning
into early afternoon. Still a lot of uncertainty and spread between
the models with regard to the magnitude of this warm nose and how
far north it progresses. Not to mention, moisture may strip out
across eastern Upper by the time the warm nose reaches there, with
forecast soundings suggesting the possibility of freezing drizzle
for that area. So, lots of questions to be resolved over the coming
days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

High impact weather potential: Minimal through the period with
continued above normal temperatures and mixed precipitation.

At upper levels, a fairly active pattern across the northern half of
the country, as broad ridging to begin the weekend slowly trends
toward weak troughing by Monday. 850mb temperatures in this pattern
will linger between -4c and -8c and ultimately keep temperatures
above normal across the Great Lakes into the beginning of next week.

At the surface, a couple of systems moving through the region will
generate a few rounds of precipitation across northern Michigan
during the period. The most persistent pcpn will be over the
weekend, with snow Saturday trending toward rain on Sunday, as warm
air associated with a strong southern Plains system lifts across the
Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Widespread rain will end from west to east across Northern Lower
Michigan this evening as a cold front sweeps thru the region. IFR
conditions will linger thru the evening hours even after the rain
has ended. Conditions will begin to improve to MVFR overnight and
will eventually return to VFR on Wednesday as high pressure and
drier low level air build into the region. Winds will shift to the
NW in the wake of the cold front and will strengthen to 10 to 20
kts with some higher gusts expected.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...SR
AVIATION...MR


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