000
FXUS63 KAPX 281433
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
933 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SUNNY BUT DOWNRIGHT CHILLY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS WE WELCOME THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BUT STILL VERY MUCH IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. VERY SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PRESSED
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HELPED TO UNEXPECTEDLY SCOUR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF LAKE CLOUDS OFF TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH I MUST SAY WAS A
LITTLE BIT UNEXPECTED...THOUGH THAT`S JUST THE NATURE OF
FORECASTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN STYLE. AS WAS ALLUDED TO
YESTERDAY...THE POTENTIAL WAS THERE FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT TO
DECOUPLE FOR MANY AREAS...AND INDEED THEY DID...WITH A HUGE RANGE
IN LOWS FROM 14 ABOVE IN FRANKFORT (WITH A STEADY WIND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT) TO AS LOW AS -19 DEGREES AROUND ENGADINE AND DOWN IN
GRAYLING. HOWEVER...NOT SO SURE MANY FOLKS MINDED TOO TERRIBLY
MUCH...AS EVEN THESE VERY COLD LOWS SURELY SEEMED "MILD" AS
COMPARED TO RECENT READINGS PUSHING -30 OR COLDER. THAT IS QUITE
THE SAD FACT...BUT SUMMARIZES NICELY JUST HOW COLD THIS MONTH HAS
BEEN.

HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS. I AM CURIOUS ABOUT HOW MUCH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WE CAN
MANAGE GIVEN SLOWLY BACKING TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM QUITE THE
DRY/COLD AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST (SEE CHICAGO AT -10 THIS
MORNING). HOWEVER...12Z APX RAOB REVEALS A REMNANT MOISTURE LAYER
STUCK RIGHT NEAR 925MB (A SIGNAL OF LAKE INFLUENCE VIA SOUTHWEST
FLOW)...GIVING HINTS THAT AS WE PUT SOME HEATING INTO THAT LAYER
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A SCATTERED OR EVEN BROKEN CU DECK
SHOULD DEVELOP...PROBABLY THICKEST TOWARD THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
TO MANISTEE AREA. NO MATTER HOW IT ALL SHAKES OUT...IT WON`T BE A
BIG DEAL...AS HIGHS TODAY RANGE BACK THROUGH THE 20S WITH STILL
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WATCH FOR A LITTLE
GUSTINESS TO THE WIND AFTER MIDDAY...WHICH WILL CUT A LITTLE INTO
THE WARMER TEMPS...BUT STILL...NOT A BAD WAY TO SEND OFF FEBRUARY
AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FROM NRN
IL THROUGH OHIO WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL
SOUTH OF NRN MICHIGAN. COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE CONUS. THIS COLD AIR
IS MODIFYING HOWEVER...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WSW/SW FLOW. THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS AS LOOSE AS IT CAN GET...DESPITE SFC TROUGH
SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS SOME EARLIER LAKE STRATUS
IN PORTIONS OF NW LOWER...BUT WE HAVE HAD DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
SWEEP INTO THE REGION AND SKIES ARE NOW CLEAR. WINDS WERE BLOWING
A LITTLE IN EXPOSED AREAS...WHILE CALM WINDS IN THOSE LOW LYING
PROTECTED SPOTS. HERE...TEMPERATURES WERE COLDEST...DOWN INTO THE
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. ALL OTHER AREAS WERE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...AT LEAST MOST OF THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHOOT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE CUTS OFF ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER SINKS INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS DOES BUCKLE UP THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT THE NRN STREAM WAVE WILL WIN OUT AND SUPPRESS THE
MAIN WAA/BAROCLINICITY SOUTH OF US. THE NRN FRINGE OF THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER. THERE IS SOME LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NRN STREAM WAVE. THIS MOISTURE HOWEVER IS RATHER SPORADIC AND
CERTAINLY NOT DEEP...WITHIN REGION OF OVERALL DRY AIR WITH PWATS
OF 0.1". LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT...CERTAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND LIKELY RESULTING IN
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SPREADING PRIMARILY INTO NW LOWER
FROM SW/WSW FLOW. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN
INCH...AND WOULD HEDGE CLOSER TO JUST A FEW TENTHS AT BEST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL FEEL COMFORTABLE CONSIDERING WHERE WE HAVE
BEEN...IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT MUCH LESS
COLD...8F TO 18F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...MODERATING TEMPERATURES FINALLY...

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. THE
COMBINATION OF MILDER AIR SURGING NORTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
BY TO THE SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...A BIT
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY PUSH TOTALS ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE INTO THE COUPLE OF INCHES RANGE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BRINGS WELCOMED SUNSHINE TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
WHICH HOLDS INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
(BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTH) EDGES NORTHWARD...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR A MAJORITY OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS OVERRUNNING/WARM
ADVECTION LOOK FAIRLY DECENT. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
20S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE SNEAKY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND LIKELY
BRING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN LIKELY FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. THE
FLOW IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY MODERATE
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OUTSIDE OF A POTENTIAL BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT TVC/MBL
TODAY...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN A SW FLOW AOB 10KTS WILL
MANIFEST ITSELF INTO SCATTERED/LOW END VFR/FLAT CUMULUS.

THE SW FLOW ABOVE THE SFC INCREASES TONIGHT...DECOUPLED FROM THE
LIGHTER SFC WINDS FOR LLWS. ALSO...MOISTURE INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL THICKEN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HELP FIRE OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS NW
LOWER MICHIGAN...IMPACTING MAINLY TVC/MBL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD