


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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141 FXUS63 KAPX 071726 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 126 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clearing trend with seasonable temperatures today. - Cool tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. - Dry trend carries into Tuesday before next rain chances return Tuesday evening through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 222 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Cold frontal boundary and embedded weak surface low pressure currently exiting to the south and east into the lower Great Lakes, leading to cooler air building into the region from northwest to southeast. In the wake of the front, broad surface high pressure intrudes from the northwest, which will lead to a decrease in lingering low level moisture (and thus, clouds) across the region as mixing commences through the day today. Anticipating all of northern Michigan will be partly to mostly sunny by the afternoon. Not as warm or humid today... quite seasonable temperatures, perhaps a touch below normal. Highs generally range from 70-75 across the eastern Yoop and 75-80 across much of northern lower... with the lone exception being some lower 70s across northwest lower as onshore NNW flow (sustained 5-10mph, some 15mph+ gusts) materializes. With surface high pressure passing through tonight, expecting a very cool night to give those air conditioners a break tonight... as lows tumble into the mid-to-upper 40s (notorious cool spots) to the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 222 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Departing high pressure contributes another dry day to the region before myriad smaller rain chances build into the region amid a quicker zonal flow. Quick moving shortwave will pass through later Tuesday, with surface reflection drawing a warm front back northward Tuesday evening. The wave looks to slow considerably as it passes through the upper Great Lakes, with northward progression of the warm front likely failing to advance much past I-96 downstate. As such, anticipating our window for rain to be rather limited at this juncture, with just some minor shower and thunder chances Tuesday night and into Wednesday (better chance probably Wednesday as we would have more favorable instability). Troughing departs to close out the work week, before another area of troughing builds into the region this upcoming weekend. Uncertainty remains with the progression and favorability of this particular troughing feature, which, conceptually should only amount to another stretch of minor rain chances... more updates to come as better data is had. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Lingering low level Cu will continue some localized MVFR condtions for KAPN, KTVC, and KPLN until cloud cover clears this evening/early tonight. The remainder of the forcast period will remain VFR through Tuesday afternoon, with scattered high ceilings at 25,000ft. Winds calm tonight then veer to the southeast by Tuesday morning. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...SJC