000
FXUS63 KAPX 301609
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1109 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY...AND THEN EXIT
EAST OF OUR STATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STRAITS
OF MACKINAC. MUCH QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE END THE WEEKEND AND
LINGERS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

14Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK 1017MB SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN.  ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO/FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND
COMBINED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS IS PUSHING A BAND OF RADAR
RETURNS ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA/FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  NOT
MUCH REACHING THE GROUND YET...SOME FLURRIES REPORTED AT SOO
MICHIGAN/ONTARIO THOUGH OVERALL CLOUD BASES ARE STILL MOSTLY ABOVE
5K FEET.  12Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY WEDGE IN THE MID LEVELS
WITH 700MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 33/48C RESPECTIVELY...LOW LAYERS
WERE NOT OVERLY DRY (850MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 8/6C
RESPECTIVELY).

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS MAIN PV ANOMALY WILL COME ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.  BAND OF RADAR RETURNS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER IN RESPONSE.  CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...WILL NEED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
TRENDS (E.G., FLURRIES THROUGH MIDDAY NORTH...DELAY ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE) BUT THE BASIC IDEAS LOOK FINE
(INCLUDING RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE OPEN WATER ARE NEAR 40F).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

WIDESPREAD SNOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO THE UPR
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT IS GENERALLY ON SCHEDULE
AND WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE RATHER SLOW-MOVING...AND WILL TAKE ALL DAY AND AND
MUCH OF TONIGHT TO MOVE THRU AND CLEAR OUR CWA. AT THIS
POINT...POPS...INCLUDING TIMING OF...ARE ON TARGET BASED ON LATEST
NAM AND ON OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

ARCTIC AIRMASS ON ITS WAY OUT...WITH PATTERN TAKING ON A DECIDEDLY MORE
ZONAL FLAVOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AT THIS EARLY HOUR. IF
LOOKING FOR WARMTH...HOWEVER...BETTER EXPAND YOUR HORIZON...WITH THE
CONUS PRETTY MUCH VOID OF ANY REAL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM
COAST TO COAST. A RATHER QUIET NIGHT...ESPECIALLY BY RECENT
STANDARDS...WITH THE NORTHERN LAKES LOCATED UNDER BURGEONING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING NORTHEAST HIGH AND FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE RIPPING INTO MANITOBA. DESPITE "WARMING" (CURRENT
READINGS IN THE 20S A GOOD 20 OR MORE DEGREES MILDER THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT!)...STILL JUST ENOUGH LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO
KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT LAKE MICHIGAN INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS INTO PARTS
OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. AWAY FROM THIS LAKE BELT...EXCEEDINGLY
SLOW TOP-DOWN SATURATION REGIME CONTINUES WELL AHEAD OF MANITOBA
WAVE. DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL EVIDENT ON REGIONAL 00Z RAOB
ANALYSIS...WITH DTX/GRB/LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE
THROUGH THE SUB H7 LAYER (RATHER SATURATED ABOVE THIS
LAYER...EXPLAINING ALL THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS). REGIONAL
RADAR RETURNS NOTHING MORE THAN ICE CRYSTALS FALLING OUT OF THIS
CLOUD DECK...EVAPORATING WELL BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. ABOVE
SUPPORTS LITTLE FORECAST CONCERNS EARLY ON...ALTHOUGH CHALLENGES
RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS APPROACHING MANITOBA WAVE HELPS
FINISH THE ONGOING SATURATION PROCESS TODAY...KICKING OFF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW ON ITS JOURNEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
TIMING/DURATION/PRECIP TYPE/AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS PASSING
SYSTEM THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH TONIGHT.

APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND COMPLETENESS OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION LIKELY
TO KICK OFF AN AREA OF SNOWFALL TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...SIMPLY NOT IMPRESSED WITH THIS SYSTEM...PER
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WITH ACTUAL BETTER DYNAMICS BRUSHING BY
TO OUR NORTH. NO DOUBT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLY A TOUCH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO AREAS NORTH OF THE STRAITS...BUT AS FOR ACTUAL
LAKE CONTRIBUTION SNOWFALL...IT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH INCREASING
OVER-WATER STABILITY AND INVERSION LEVELS AT H9. BROAD OMEGA NOTED
IN FAVORED DGZ...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WARMING
THERMAL PROFILES TO LIMIT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. BACKWARD RUN
TRAJECTORY GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AFTERNOON`S LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH FEATURED HIGHS YESTERDAY
WELL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. DON`T THINK WE`LL GET THIS
WARM...BUT IN LIGHT OF THIS...HARD TO ARGUE WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING
READINGS TODAY REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S (WARMEST ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COAST). EVEN ENOUGH OF A MELTING LAYER NOW SHOWING IN
GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND OFF THE HIGHLANDS.
BAND OF "DEEPER" MOISTURE SPREADS INTO NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH
IT...BEFORE EXITING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPARTS SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
THIN OUT...WITH MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING SIGNS OF POST SNOW
DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS ALWAYS...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE ENDEAVOR AND MORE OF A NOWCAST DILEMMA. WILL LEAVE IT AS
SUCH...REFRAINING FROM A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE ACTUAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

UPSHOT TO ALL THE ABOVE...PER SLR`S AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE MODEL QPF...ENVISION JUST AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FOR
EASTERN UPPER TODAY...WITH LESS THAN ONE INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOOKS TO GET A TOUCH
WINDY...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW NORTH OF
THE MIGHTY MAC. ABOVE FAR FROM ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE ANY HIGHER IMPACT POTENTIAL TO BE COVERED VIA SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS AS SNOWFALL TRENDS/INTENSITIES ARE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME E/NE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINING WELL NORTH OF MICHIGAN OVER
JAMES BAY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THRU MONDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT DRY EASTERLY FLOW
THRU AROUND 700 MB WILL KEEP AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION QUITE DRY...
WITH THE MOIST LAYER ONLY REACHING TO THE -10 C TO 13 C ISOTHERM. DO
EXPECT SOME LIMITED OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD AS DELTA
T`S HOLD GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RESIDUAL NORTHERLY FLOW
LAKE-INDUCED FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NW AND FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO E/NE FLOW LAKE-INDUCED FLURRIES
FOR N CENTRAL AND NE LWR MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY
NIGHT. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 0.20 IN...SO AT THIS POINT...
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THUS...WILL KEEP FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST AS DEFINED ABOVE AND WILL
LEAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND EASTERLY FLOW LAKE
FLURRIES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S. WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WAA COMMENCES AHEAD OF RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THRU MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG WAA KICKING IN
BEHIND IT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT THE AFFECTS OF WAA AT THE SURFACE...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL
GRADUALLY WARM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE CHANGES...SO WILL PRECIP TYPE
AS MOISTURE AND THUS POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SMALL CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL ENTER THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING MIXED WITH
RAIN. WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL SOUNDINGS CLOSELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE SIMPLE GIVEN ALL
OF THE UNKNOWNS THIS FAR OUT. DO EXPECT PRECIP ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN WILL BECOME ALL RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL
WEST OF OUR CWA AND WAA STILL IN PROGRESS. TEMPS WILL COME CRASHING
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FROPA...WHICH WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE
ANY ONGOING PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. AGAIN...WILL
NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC IN TIMING THIS CHANGE OVER FOR NOW. WESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL KICK IN AS CAA BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED FOR
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER HIGH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE
30S AND EVEN LOWER 40S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH CAA IN
FULL SWING BY THEN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COOL BACK TO LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF SNOW SLOWLY WORKS FROM ERN UPR
MICHIGAN SE THRU NRN LWR MICHIGAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NRN LWR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

GUSTY SCA PRODUCING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES MUCH MORE "BAGGY" LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...
SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASING THE WIND SPEEDS AND GRADUALLY VEERING THEM
MORE NORTHERLY AS IT DOES SO. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JB
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB