000
FXUS63 KAPX 030400
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1100 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...IS FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY EAST
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THIS WILL KEEP THINGS
COLD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO START THE WORK WEEK...THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE RATHER BENIGN WHILE A WINTER STORM RAGES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A RESULT OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW ZERO ALREADY
THANKS TO EFFICIENT DECOUPLING WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY IN
PLACE. HARD TO SAY EXACTLY HOW FAR TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TONIGHT...
WITH PLENTY OF LOCAL VARIATIONS EXPECTED AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS
SCENARIO. MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
NEGATIVE 20S...RANGING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORES. AGAIN...CERTAINLY EXPECT
LOCALLY COLDER TEMPS GIVEN THIS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY
AIR THRU THE COLUMN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE THRU THE NIGHT...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES AND
SOME DIMINISH IN WIND SPEEDS. THUS...YET ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS
IN STORE FOR THE NORTHWOODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NEAR THE LAKES TO THE NEGATIVE 20S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT...

CURRENTLY THERE IS A FAIRLY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW AND A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS LACKING ANY TYPE OF
MOISTURE OR LIFTING MECHANISM TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUD COVER OR CHANCES
FOR PRECIP. VERY COLD AIR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...PRODUCING LOW TEMPERATURES TO -20F...POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COLDER IN THE NORMAL LOW LYING COLD SPOTS OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF ANY
DECENT MODERATION BY THE GREAT LAKES...AS THESE ARE MOSTLY FROZEN
OVER. THE GREATEST OPEN WATER THAT APPEARED ON SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH MAY
STILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS MAY REACH -30F
IN SOME LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING. NO WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL
BE PUT OUT DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE LOW DUE TO
MAINLY THE VERY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES.

AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL COLD
AIR IN. LUCKILY THE SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
NEAR 10F TO THE LOW TEENS. CAN NOT WAIT UNTIL WE CAN TALK ABOUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S! AS WINDS BACK MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE
WESTERLY...THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED
OPEN WATER OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS AND PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MANISTEE TO THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

STILL PRETTY COLD FOR EARLY MARCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT WITH
SLOWLY MODERATING CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF SNOW LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING BY
TO OUR NORTH. FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE MINIMAL AND
WILL BE FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY JUST HOW QUICKLY
THINGS "WARM UP".

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... POTENTIALLY VERY COLD AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A DECENT DROP
IN TEMPS THROUGH MID EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE FROM AN
APPROACHING TROUGH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TOTALLY FREE FALLING
THOUGH SO WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY DROPPING LOWS. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
THE CHANCE FOR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE MOST PART...AS MILDER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION (WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY TO MIX IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE). STILL
RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS (WHICH IS STILL 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MILDER AIR THEN BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AS THIS SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE AN
APPROACHING TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGS INCREASING
CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LOWS ONCE AGAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PACIFIC RIDGE
RETROGRADES A BIT FARTHER WEST WHILE WEAKENING ALLOWING THE
SEEMINGLY SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO FLATTEN
OUT A BIT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL
A BIT BELOW WHAT YOU MIGHT NORMALLY EXPECT). NOT MUCH GOING ON
WEATHER WISE...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING BY TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S FRIDAY...DROPPING BACK INTO THE TOLERABLE 20S SATURDAY...THEN
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU 00Z TUESDAY AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR THRU
THE COLUMN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A MODEST SHORT WAVE RIDING INTO MICHIGAN. W/NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU MONDAY...BACKING TO THE S/SW MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...JB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR