Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 150258
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
958 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

997mb surface low along Ontario/Quebec border, moving relatively
slowly to the se. Various spokes of energy rotating thru the
region, evident by areas of colder cloud tops on IR. First one is
crossing central Lk Huron and Saginaw Bay, and shoved an initial
cold front across northern MI. A touch of lightning was seen with
this initial activity. A 2nd is in the Gd and Ltl Trav Bay
region, associated with better returns centered over GLR. A 3rd
is over eastern Superior.

This has been an somewhat underwhelming event in the early going.
The initial burst was briefly intense, but arrived at the end of
the diurnal heating cycle which saw temps in the mid/upper 30s
with some peaks of sun just before. So it didn`t stick on
surfaces. Winds are still going to pick up a bit further, and with
colder air coming in, much better snow-liquid ratios will be
realized as the night proceeds. But will need to adjust evening
snow totals down slightly in northern lower. This leaves the
headline in a somewhat nebulous spot, but with some
blowing/drifting concerns likely to emerge after midnight once we
put down some fresh snow, will not change anything headline-wise
at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 620 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Initial round of vigorous convection is rolling across northern
lower MI. 40-50dbz returns seen in spots just north of the office,
reported by staff members as a heavy graupel shower. Also worth
noting is the isolated lightning strike near Rogers City about 40
min ago. Quick update to grids/HWO to mention a rumble or two of
thunder this evening in northern lower MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

...Increasing snow and wind...

High Impact Weather Potential: Snow and blowing snow tonight.

Tonight...Still expecting a marked increase in shower shower
coverage late this afternoon and especially this evening. This will
be due to the combination of forcing from an Alberta Clipper and
lake enhancement as colder air filters into the region. Winds will
increase as well with gusts of 35 to 40 mph expected. This will lead
to blowing and drifting snow. Current winter weather advisories
still look good (already in effect across eastern Upper and while
starting within a couple of hours across northwest and north central
Lower Michigan). Snow accumulations of generally 1 to 3 inches. The
bigger impact will likely be icy roads as temperatures fall to below
freezing as well as blowing and drifting snow limiting visibility.
Lows tonight in the upper teens to middle 20s.

Wednesday...Colder air continues to filter into the region. North
northwest flow lake effect snow showers will likely continue.
However, not a ton of moisture to work with so accumulations should
be limited to generally a couple of inches but as with all lake
effect, locally higher amounts are possible. Colder with highs in
the lower and middle 20s. Remaining rather windy too so it will feel
colder than that. Areas of blowing snow will likely continue as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

...Cold to start but then a warm-up...

High impact weather potential: None

Pattern Forecast: High amplitude ridge over the western CONUS with
deep trough carved out across the Great Lakes and New England for
Wednesday night.  Gradually diminishing trend in moisture and
lowering inversions, but still plenty of overlake instability to
continue to produce north-northwest flow light lake effect snow
showers.  The activity will diminish throughout the night, with just
some minor accumulations possible west of US-131 and M-123. Despite
minuscule moisture available below 850mb, a few lake effect flurries
may continue west of US-131 in northern lower Thursday morning.

Otherwise, few sensible weather concerns for Thursday and Friday as
large western ridge edges its way eastward toward the Great Lakes.
Some cold overnight lows for the end of the week, with widespread
single digits to lower teens.  The warmer temperatures will begin to
be felt by Friday, with highs into the 30s in most areas (although
the big warm up does not happen until the weekend).  There should
also be a good deal of sunshine to end the week, with PWATs less
than 0.50" indicating a fairly dry atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

High impact weather potential: None

All guidance is in agreement with high and dry conditions for
Saturday and Sunday...as a ridge builds in at 500mb and dominates
all but the west coast of the conus. Temperatures will be
unseasonably warm for the entire period, with quite a bit of
sunshine through Sunday.

Models begin to disagree for late Monday through Tuesday in the
handling of the next weather maker.  The euro shows a closed low
deepening into the 980mb neighborhood tracking across Lake Superior,
with a large surge of moisture. This idea would mean a windier and
wetter (at the start) situation that would quickly suck colder
Canadian air down for late Tuesday into Wednesday...thus a possible
"whiter" situation too (For Tuesday night/Wednesday). The GFS is not
as impressed...has the low displaced well north closer to Hudson Bay
and not as much associated moisture. Some cautionary points would be
1) that`s 7 days out...guidance can, and likely will, change a
couple times by then. 2) The last well wrapped 980mb closed low the
euro was selling last week didn`t really pan out as advertised.
Either way...about the only confident call I can make is it appears
a return to more seasonal temperatures will arrive the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Mainly MVFR, with some IFR tonight (especially early).

Clipper low pressure system passing to our ne tonight. Vigorous
shsn have developed associated with the system and a trailing cold
front. IFR vsbys will be seen at times tonight, mainly early, at
all TAF sites but MBL. However, they won`t be especially
persistent. MVFR cigs and (at times) vsbys will be more common
tonight into Wednesday.

Winds will veer nw and become increasingly gusty tonight into
Wednesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Marine...Winds and waves will strengthen to marginally gale warning
criteria tonight for much of our nearshore areas of Northern Lakes
Michigan and Huron. Expect SCA criteria winds and waves will linger
into Wednesday as well. Winds will then begin to diminish Wednesday
night. Chances of snow will gradually increase late this afternoon
with the passage of a weak cold front...and especially tonight as a
stronger secondary cold front sweeps thru our region...serving to
activate the lakes and produce lake effect snow showers.  Lake
effect snow showers will continue into Wednesday night.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ016>029-
     031>034.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ008-015.
LH...GALE WARNING until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ347>349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345-346.
LM...GALE WARNING until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-342-344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ341.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...AJS
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...AJS



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