Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 211905
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure center has reached Western
Upper Michigan this afternoon... with the associated cold front now
extending from the low thru Lower Michigan. Most of the shower
activity along and ahead of this boundary has pushed north and east
of our CWA...leaving our area mainly dry but still mostly cloudy as
residual low clouds hang over the area despite the arrival of the
dry slot behind the cold front. A look at upstream IR satellite
shows a large area of wrap-around moisture/low clouds extending
behind the nearly vertically-stacked low...all the way into portions
of the Northern Plains.  Area of wrap-around showers continues to
develop over the Arrowhead of Minnesota within the heart of the wrap-
around moisture...deep cyclonic flow under the upper low center and
under the upper level cold pool.

A few showers will linger across NE sections of our CWA into early
evening...with a break in the action expected late this evening and
into the overnight hours for our entire CWA. Additional clouds and
showers will spread into the western two-thirds of our area late
tonight and Monday morning as the wrap-around moisture and some
semblance of the upper level cold pool arrive. CAA will lend to some
lake contribution as well under the direction of W/SW low level
flow. All feature driving shower production will begin to exit our
area by Monday afternoon...bringing a temporary close to precip
chances before another stronger wave lifts into the Western Great
Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday.

Under low clouds tonight...temps will only fall into the 40s despite
ongoing CAA. High temps on Monday will range from the lower 50s in
Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower 60s near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...Remaining mostly cloudy, cool and showery...

A cutoff upper level low pressure system parked over the region
will send pieces of energy across the forecast area through midweek.
This will lead to additional showers at times as well as more cool
temperatures. The timing of individual vorticity maximum will be a
bit tough to call but the overall dismal and dark pattern should
remain in place over the next few days. There is a slight
chance for thunder across the southern forecast area Tuesday
afternoon as models indicate that we get a little unstable
(few hundred j/kg of mixed layer cape). Highs Tuesday ranging
through the 60s north to south. Highs Wednesday ranging from
the upper 50s north to the lower and middle 60s south. Lows at night
mainly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Still a good bit of uncertainty towards the end of the extended with
a lot of model divergence. Good agreement for a quiet first half of
the weekend, much less so as we get into Sunday/Monday. Seems to be
trending toward more widespread showers Sunday, but things have
tended to be forecast a bit too fast recently. Wouldn`t be surprised
to see this slow a bit in the coming days as well, shifting most of
the precip chances to Monday. Weekend temperatures will run a bit
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Scattered showers will continue to impact NE Lower Michigan (APN) this
afternoon before coming to a temporary end this afternoon as the
dry slot arrives in the wake of the cold front. Additional low
clouds and scattered rain showers will develop tonight into Monday
thanks to the combined efforts of ample wrap-around moisture on
the backside of the low center...increasing over-lake instability
resulting from low level CAA and deep cyclonic flow lingering
behind the low. Remaining IFR conditions will improve to MVFR/low
VFR this afternoon and tonight with the arrival of the dry
slot...but will drop back down to solid MVFR on Monday as the
wrap-around moisture and precip arrives. Surface winds will veer
from SE to S to SW as the low center tracks over Lake Superior
over the next 24 hours.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Winds and waves will remain at SCA criteria thru tonight as low
pressure tracks thru Northern Michigan and into Ontario. SCA
conditions may persist into Monday for some locations as well.
Scattered showers will redevelop across much of our nearshore area
late tonight into Monday as wrap-around moisture arrives under the
upper low center and the upper level cold pool.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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