Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 151053
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER KANSAS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY.
SOME HEAVIER SNOW BANDS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
HAVE SHOWN DRAMATIC WEAKENING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. WILL
ALLOW THE WARNING AND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM. AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM
GREELEY TO LIMON BUT WITH LITTLE MORE ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO REDUCE VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING SNOW...EVEN THOUGH SNOW WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH FROM THE
SKY ANY MORE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING SURFACE FRONTAL
PUSH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE TODAY...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS....MOISTURE IS DECREASING BUT OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN LIKELY DROP OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM WITH THE DROP IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THIS
COULD PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW OVER HIGH PASSES.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO COOL INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM OVER
THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO MOVE OVERHEAD...LIKELY NOT
SOON ENOUGH TO STOP THE FOG FROM FORMING OR KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

FAIRLY NORMAL DECEMBER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG
WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT OF WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH NAM LIKELY BEING TOO
WET...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME DRYING
NOTED BY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
OVER THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

A DEEPER BUT BROAD TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ALSO ANTICIPATED TO WORK ONTO THE PLAINS GIVEN WEAK Q-G SUPPORT.
MOST OF THE SUPPORT DOES STAY TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH SO WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY LOW POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ON THE PLAINS.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING POPPING UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
COULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME
SNOW COVER OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY NEGATE MOST OF THE
WARMING.

THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL AGAIN BE TO
OUR SOUTH SO ONLY LOW POPS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK ANTICYCLONE AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR ALLOWED FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA AIRPORTS. THE ANTICYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
AND MAKING THE POSITION OF THE DENSER FOG VARIABLE. AREAS OF SNOW
HAVE MOVED EAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER AWAY.
CEILINGS OF 200-500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY AND NIGHT. AS WESTERLY WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT FOG
DISSIPATE NEAR SUNRISE. WINDS MAY TURN BRIEFLY SOUTHWEST AROUND
12Z THEN RETURN TO NORTHERLY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
17Z AS A PUSH MOVES IN FROM A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO DRAINAGE
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD STAY NORTH.
KEPT THE VCFG IN TO KDEN TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ048>051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ031-033-034-042-044>047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



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