Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161709
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1109 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. WINDS
OVER THE PLAINS RANGE FROM DUE NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY. THERE ARE
LEE WAVE CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE CONCERNING THE WAVE CLOUDINESS STAYING AROUND
OR NOT. USUALLY IF WE HAVE THE WAVE CLOUDS AROUND FROM BEFORE
SUNRISE...THEY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT BY LATE
MORNING...EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SYNTHETIC SATELLITE PICTURES INDEED
SHOW THE WAVE CLOUDINESS TO DISAPPEAR AROUND NOON TIME. EVEN IF
THE CLOUDS DISAPPEAR...MAY STILL NEED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN
A TAD...WITH CURRENT DATA AT HAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

MOUNTAIN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AT THIS HOUR...THOUGH IT ONLY
APPEARS TO BE SURFACING AROUND BOULDER...AND NOT WITH FULL FORCE.
CHANNELS OF WEST WINDS EXTEND EASTWARD TOWARD BROOMFIELD AND DIA
WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CHANGE WITH
THE FRONT PASSING AROUND 7 AM. MOUNTAIN WAVE SHOULD FADE WHILE A
MORE GENERAL WNW FLOW DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN THE MAIN
PRESSURE SURGE NOW IN WYOMING SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND KICK OUR WINDS AROUND TO EASTERLY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN UNDER THE MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS
DURING THE NIGHT. MADE A FEW SMALL CHANGES...MAINLY MORE CLOUD
COVER AND SOME TWEAKING TO THIS MORNINGS WINDS. ALSO DROPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING STRONGER COOLING AND SOME CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

A COOLER AMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. A WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRUSH
SRN CO ON SATURDAY...BUT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE WARMER SATURDAY AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
ON SUNDAY SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER SWRN AZ. SOME QPF PROGGED
FOR SWRN CO SUNDAY AFTN/EVNG...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IMPACT THE CWA.
THE FLOW OVER NERN CO WL BE DRIER AND MORE WEST/NWLY. ON
MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX...WITH STRONGER
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE. A WEAK SLY FLOW WILL BE OVER CO ON
MONDAY WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SRN CO
MONDAY AFTN/EVNG. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP IT SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO ZONES 34 AND 37. THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASE FM THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY
00Z WEDNESDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT COULD AGAIN BRING
A CHC OF PCPN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO UTAH THEN ACROSS CO LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WL KEEP
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY...CHC MTNS WITH SLGT
CHC POPS OVER THE NERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN SPITE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES...THE COOLEST DAYS SHOULD BE ON FRIDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

LOOKS LIKE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE AT THE AIRPORT FOR
MANY HOURS...SO SAY MOST OF THE MODELS. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING
ISSUES AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RJK


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