Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 191330
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
730 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER COLORADO.
THE RIDGE HAS SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WILL BRING
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WITH IT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WILL BE A HALF INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. CAPES WILL BE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG. DECIDED TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF STORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-25/NORTH OF I-70. THINKING AIRMASS WILL BE TOO
DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD 60 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OVER AND NEAR THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. PLAN ON KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST EAST OF A LINE FROM STERLING TO LIMON. CAN`T RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER...OVER PHILLIPS AND
SEDGWICK COUNTIES WHERE DEW POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES ON SUN AND
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON. THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON SUN WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ON MON MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AGAIN WITH TSTM COVERAGE RATHER
ISOLD. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100 OVER NERN CO BASED ON 850-700 MB TEMPS.

ON TUE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER COLORADO. MODELS SHOW A
WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S. MEANWHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE BEHIND THE WK FNT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS MAINLY TUE EVENING OVER
NERN CO.

FOR WED AND THU THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT APPEARS SOME MONSOON MOISTURE WILL TRY AND ADVECT
INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. HOWEVER IT STILL APPEARS HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE
90S BOTH DAYS ACROSS NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ELEVATED HAZE LAYER HAS SLOWED ARRIVAL RATES AT KDEN.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE VISIBILITY WAS HOLDING NEAR 10SM. ACCORDING
TO 12Z DENVER SOUNDING...IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE ABOUT 3 HOURS...OR
TIL 16Z-17Z FOR HAZE LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT WITH IMPROVING
ARRIVAL RATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO ISSUES EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND GENERALLY LIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. ON MONDAY
ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...MEIER/RPK


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