Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 280238
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
838 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LAST SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA WINDING DOWN WITH
CLEARING SKIES. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS HOUR...MAINLY FOR
CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN A BIT MORE CLOUD LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF US
DRIFTS OVER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL BE LEFT SO I DID NOT
HIT IT TOO HARD...GENERALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AGAIN OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY. THE FEW STORMS THAT FORM WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND STAY
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE. AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING... EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AIRMASS WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT... SO EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES.

FOR SUNDAY...THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM WHICH SHOULD PUT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS. JUST
EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THE STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

EARLY SUMMER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND AS IT DOES WEAKEN ALONG THE WAY. MODERATE NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NERN COLORADO GENERALLY DRY ON MONDAY
AND ANY STORM FORMATION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED SLOPES
AND RIDGETOPS OF THE FRONT RANGE MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS START
OUT A FEW DEGS ABOVE ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF MORNING AND ERLY
AFTERNOON SOLAR HEATING. REST OF THE WEEK...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY
BECOMES MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY AND IN DOING SO BECOMES WETTER
WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BECOMING ENTRENCHED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
CIRCULATION FIELD. MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SFC FRONTS AND/OR
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRUSHING NERN COLORADO DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST OF THESE SYSTEMS IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREAS EITHER LATE ON WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW AND SHOTS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THESE DISTURBANCES APPEAR TO NUDGE DOWNWARD TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND ACCORDING TO THE EUROPEAN
MODEL WHILE THE GFS HANGS ONTO LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER AND ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.
WINDS AT KDEN A LITTLE SLOW TO COME AROUND THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD GET A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THIS HOUR AND BE FROM THE SOUTH
BY 06Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...MEIER


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