Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 110256
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

CLOUD BAND CROSSING NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THE PRESENT TIME
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE AXIS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEAK SHEAR...
LIFT AND INSTABILITY ALONG THIS AXIS HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NERN WELD...LOGAN...NRN WASHINGTON...
SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE
YET TO SEE ANY OF THIS PRECIP COLLECTED IN RAIN GAUGES OUT THERE.
HOWEVER BASED ON ITS CURRENT REFLECTIVITY...THE STRONGEST CELL
NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY COULD BE PUTTING
DOWN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NO LONGER
EXPECT ANY THUNDER/LIGHTNING REST OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS NEXT HOUR
OR SO. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENT TO
OVERNIGHT SKYCOVER AND DOWNLOADED RUC WINDS IN THE WIND GRIDS
MAINLY TO BETTER REFLECT THE CLOCKWISE TURN IN WIND DIRECTION IN
THE GREATER DENVER METRO AREA NEXT FEW HOURS.

 &&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WYOMING WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING INTO CWFA. SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
JACKSON AND LARIMER COUNTIES. APPEARS MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS
HIGH BASED. WEB CAMS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF PARK AND GORE RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY.
WESTERLY WINDS A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE PLAINS. CURRENT LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATING SOME CAPE ACROSS MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG. NO CAPE
YET FAR EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THE WAVE MOVING INTO NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...WITH THE TAIL END TREKING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE MOST OF PLAINS THIS EVENING AS
WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WAVE. LATEST
RAP GENERATES SOME LIGHT NORTHEAST PLAINS EAST OF GREELEY AND
DENVER...AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT OF
THE WAVE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE
URBAN CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME THUNDER AS CAPE VALUES OF
200-300 J/KG EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE LIFT. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AS WELL WITH WEAK OROGRAPHICS. THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT. SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AIDING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMUP. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. AIRMASS LOOKS
DRY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. FIRE DANGER TO BECOME
ELEVATED AGAIN WITH HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE TEENS. BUT WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL THE
POTENTIAL SNOW STORM FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ONE LAST
MILD DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.
LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DEEPER AND SLOWER AND SHOWS MORE
PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO PULL PLENTY OF COLD AIR
SOUTH WITH IT. THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY
WITH THIS STORM WHICH SHOULD HELP PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. ECMWF
IS SHOWING .75 TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
HIGHER TOTALS IN AND NEAR FOOTHILLS IN PLACES DUE TO
UPSLOPE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO GREATER THAN A FOOT OF SNOW. THE HEAVY
WET SNOW COULD POSE PROBLEMS TO TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW.
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND SHOWS A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES VERSUS A WEAK OPEN TROUGH AND DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL REST OF TONIGHT AT DENVER AREA
TERMINALS WITH MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING AFTER PASSAGE
OF A WEAK WEATHER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MAIN CHANGE TO TERMINAL FCSTS WILL BE TO TURN SFC WINDS
CLOCKWISE AT DIA AND APA FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SPEEDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 12 KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER


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