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000
FXUS65 KBOU 120915
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
315 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING PAST DENVER EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MOISTURE STALLED OUT WELL EAST OF HERE. EXPECT BETTER
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MOISTURE AS THE
INCOMING MOISTURE WILL WIND UP GETTING MIXED OUT. BIGGEST CHANGE
FROM YESTERDAY IS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD CAP CONVECTION
TODAY EVEN NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER WHERE THERE IS RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WE HAVE LOW POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE...AND I WILL LEAVE THAT AS THERE
COULD BE A RIBBON WHERE IT IS WARM ENOUGH WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE
AND THE DIURNAL CONVERGENCE...BUT MORE LIKELY THERE WILL NOT BE
ANYTHING.

WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE IN THE DAY AND LITTLE
MOISTURE INCREASE...WE WILL BE APPROACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN
AREAS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. AT THIS POINT CONDITIONS
APPEAR MARGINAL. EXPECT SOME SMOKE TO COME NORTH INTO DOUGLAS
COUNTY FROM THE BLACK FOREST FIRE THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE PRODUCED AND HOW MUCH IT LOFTS INTO THE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS COULD REACH DENVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY DISPERSED AND/OR ALOFT AT THAT
DISTANCE THOUGH...BUT COULD BE NOTICEABLE.

SOME CLOUD COVER DRIFTING OVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT...HOPEFULLY
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES. IF THE BLACK FOREST CONTINUES TO BURN
ACTIVELY THERE COULD BE MORE SMOKE IMPACT IN THE EVENING WITH
SHALLOWER MIXING.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST...LEAVING THE CWFA
UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE AREAS...AS WELL AS
SOUTH PARK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY AGAIN DROP IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE
AFTN. THERE WILL BE ENUF MOISTURE AOA 500 MB TO PRODUCE A FEW HIGH
BASED TSTMS IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BUT THE CAPE
IN PRETTY MINIMAL...THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE THERE
WITH DEWPOINTS OF 50F OR MORE. INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING SHOW CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WITH STRONG CIN AS
WELL...SO WILL GO WITH A JUST SLIGHT CHANCE THERE WITH A GOOD CAP
IN PLACE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BRIEFLY IN THE AFTN WITH A COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE CWFA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FM THE NORTHEAST AS AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SOME QPF IN THE AFTN AND EVENING SO WL KEEP A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS IN
THE AFTN AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
80S...WHICH IS MUCH COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW THE HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN TO RETURN
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM FIRES 60 MILES SOUTH
AND 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF DENVER MAY IMPACT APPROACH/DEPARTURE
TRAFFIC THROUGH S/SE AND N/NW GATES IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KDEN/KAPA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF DENVER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO THREATS TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD