Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 250220
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
820 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

SURFACE LOW HAS EXITED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH BRINGING WINDS DOWN
BUT KEEPING THEM STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH. MOISTURE HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. WV/IR SHOWING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
CO SO WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. DOWNWARD
QG DESCENT/SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. NAM12
SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DECREASING THIS EVENING SO LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
AS WELL. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AS WELL AFTER 00Z. LATE TONIGHT... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST BY 18Z MONDAY. AN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN
THE MOUNTAINS...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE COUPLED WITH WEAK
QG ASCENT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW TSTMS. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTN WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE A DENVER CYCLONE. NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE AN
INVERTED-V PROFILE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS SYNOPTIC SCALE Q-G LIFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH UTAH. THE MODELS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THERE INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE FORT COLLINS-CHEYENNE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STORM SYSTEM HAS YET TO
MOVE ONSHORE AND THESE TYPES OF LOWS CAN TYPICALLY DIG MORE THAN
ADVERTISED...SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK.
AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD
DESPITE THE THREAT OF A DRY SLOT. EVEN IF THE STORM KICKS OUT A
BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH COULD STILL SEE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK UPSLOPE BEHIND A FRONTAL
SURGE. SNOW LEVEL WILL EVENTUALLY FALL THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS AND
WE COULD EVEN SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DOWN INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
LOW. AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR
ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET WHERE SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. IF THE STORM DOES DROP FARTHER SOUTH...THEN NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS WOULD HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS
WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OCCURS BUT STILL SOME MOISTURE
AROUND TO KEEP A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF
THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP SO WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP THE TRACK OF THIS STORM
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE HIGHER...AND MOST OF THAT FALLING IN SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THAT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD KICK TO THE EAST
BY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY FILL
IN BEHIND BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO AVERAGE A GOOD 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOUNDARY
TO THE ENE OF DIA WILL BRING A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE ENE
THEN CONTINUE INTO DRAINAGE BY 0500. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SEEN
ON WV EXPECT SCT DECK TO CONTINUE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BOWEN



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