Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 070220
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
820 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY SHORT LIVED PULSE VARIETY AS WIND
SHEAR ALOFT IS VERY WEAK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MAINLY HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. HAVE TRENDED FORECASTS FOR
DIMINISHING ACTIVITY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND REMOVED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER
DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST STEERING WINDS WILL
KEEP ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE TOO STABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY WILL BE PRESENT AFTER 03Z. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD WILL GET SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES BRUSHES ACROSS NERN CO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE FRONT RANGE. FORECAST CAPES FOR DENVER AND LIMON AROUND 300
J/KG BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AROUND
AKRON. INCREASING INSTABILITY TO THE NORTHEAST OF DENVER...BUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND WEST OF IT. THOSE STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED AND PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND MAINLY BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL. SHEAR PROFILE AND
INSTBY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG/SEVERE STORM OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTN.  TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 90S
BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECREASE AFTER 20Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COOLER AND WETTER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...METRO AREAS AND
PLAINS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FLOW WILL BE
UPSLOPE OVER NIGHT....BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW IT BECOMING TOO
STABLE FOR ANY ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE METRO AREAS.

TUESDAY`S TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE
NICE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO
UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE JUST OVER AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS...AND WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD SEE WETTER STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND METRO AREAS. MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE OVER
THE FAR EAST PLAINS TO SEE MUCH ACTIVITY...BUT LATER IN THE
EVENING THE STORMS MAY DRIFT THAT WAY.

THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECT TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. WINDS ALOFT WILL IN TURN
BECOME LIGHTER...ALLOWING FOR SLOWER STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL SET
UP A PATTERN OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED NORTH OF KDEN LAST HOUR AS WINDS HAVE
INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH 05Z. EXPECT ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE ALREADY INTRODUCED A
PROB30 FOR LOCAL TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


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