Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 282156
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
256 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

Afternoon observations and radar data have shown only a slight
uptick in mountain snowfall. It looks as is some dry intrusion has
occurred from the north. Airmass is still unstable and continued
favorable orographics should help snow continue through the night,
and nighttime during these patterns almost always results in more
snow than during the day so will continue with the advisories and
warnings for the mountains as they exist. Was tempted to extend
them into tomorrow with continued northwest flow, but so far
amounts have been marginal and will have to let later shifts
determine if any extensions are warranted given the dry intrusion
from the north.

On the plains, winds will decrease through the early evening hours
with loss of daytime heating and mixing. It will become windy
again east of I-25 tomorrow given stronger northwest flow and
second surge from the north. Should see sustained winds of 20 to
30 mph by late morning with gusts of 40-50 mph. Can`t rule out a
few flurries by Tuesday morning on the eastern plains with second
surge of mid level moisture, but overall looks like another mostly
cloudy and brisk day with temperatures a few degrees cooler than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

Northwest flow aloft will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as
the upper trough drops south over the desert Southwest. Wednesday
will be cloudy to start over the plains with light snow in the
mountains with enough moisture and QG lift for light flurries.
This will dry out by the afternoon as drier air moves in from the
North.

Wednesday night into Thursday weak ridging and increasing WNW
flow brought on by an upper trough over Idaho will bring dry
conditions to the region with temperatures staying in the 40s. As
the trough drops south into the desert southwest flow will become
more southwesterly. Will keep light pops in the mountains on
Thursday with lingering moisture and some QG hitting the higher
terrain to the east as it moves south with the low. Pops could
increase with later model runs if low moves further eastward. Will
keep the plains dry but temperatures will continue to be cool with
highs in the 40s on Thursday.

For Friday...models differ on the path of the low center but both
show increasing NW flow over the state as well as a upper trough
Friday into Saturday. This system could also drop a cold front
over the NE portions of the state but with minimal moisture and
subsidence on the plains expect only cooler temperatures with
little precip. Will have low pops for the mountains on Friday as
well.

Looking ahead for the weekend both models show some consensus with
increasing NW flow and a developing ridge that would bring drier
conditions to the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 255 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

Winds have shifted northerly and weakened to around 10 knots. They
will likely go light/variable before transitioning back to a
west/southwest flow by 06Z. Then winds will turn back
north/northwest by 15Z-16Z Tuesday and increase to 15-25 knots
with a few gusts around 30 knots at KDEN through Tuesday
afternoon. VFR conditions will persist with visual landing
conditions prevailing, even with increase in mid level moisture
toward 12Z Tuesday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ033-034.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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