Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 190404
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
904 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

WINDS REACHED WARNING CRITERIA IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BOULDER
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT HAVE SINCE SUBSIDED. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL
REMAIN GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...THEY WILL NO LONGER
REACH WARNING CRITERIA THEREFORE THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. OVERALL THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATED NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

PARTS OF BOULDER AND PARK COUNTIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVING WIND GUSTS
IN THE 50 TO 65 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS DOWN OVER THE STATE. THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS THE SUN SETS AND AIRMASS
STABILITY PARAMETERS TRANSITION TO NIGHT TIME. CROSS SECTIONS FROM
THE NAM ALSO SHOW A POSSIBLE PEAK IN THE WIND PROFILE AROUND 8 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUE AS IT IS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER
THE WARMING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE BUT
WITH LESS STRENGTH THAN TODAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND WHAT THEY WERE TODAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MAY STILL SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...BUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE SOME NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 MPH MAY PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
COLORADO FROM THE WEST. THIS DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGH COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY ON THE PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...AND A WEAKER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
STAYS WELL SOUTH OF COLORADO. WITH THE LACK OF LIFT AND
OROGRAPHICS...ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. LEE TROUGHING AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ON THE PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES
AT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

BY LATE SATURDAY...BETTER OROGRAPHICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO. THIS
LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED SNOW EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE MODELS BECAUSE A SHIFT IN THE JETSTREAM TWO OR THREE
HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IN
THE MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 856 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. OCNL GUSTY WINDS STILL
POSSIBLE AT KBJC BUT OVERALL TREND IN THE WIND HAS BEEN
DECREASING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO DRAINAGE AT KDEN/KAPA UNDER BKN
HIGH CLOUD COVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE DENVER AREA RELAX. A WEAK
LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED RIGHT UP AGAINST THE
FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL INDUCE THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE DENVER METRO AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...COOPER



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