Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 170257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
857 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 830 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

The winds over the plains have all gone to northeasterlies
behind a surge of cooler air. There is only a bit of mid an upper
level cloudiness over the CWA presently. There is little to
adjust, maybe some cloud cover grids and some wind field.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A strong southwesterly flow aloft will be over the region through
Monday. An upper level jet max over northwestern NV tonight will
pass into southeastern WY on Monday. The models show weak mid
level qg ascent clipping northern CO late tngt into Monday. NAM12
spatial cross sections shows max winds around 90 kts in the
600-700 mb layer. No amplification evident so strongest gusts
should be above timberline. Have upgraded the highlight in the
mountains to a High Wind Warning. There is some good mid level
instability with increasing moisture as well...with rain and snow
showers developing in the mountains mainly north of interstate 70
on Monday. Any snow accumulations will be in the higher West to
southwest facing aspects and will be minimal. Across the Front
Range Foothills and northeast plains. Strongest wind this aftn has
been over the foothills and along the Palmer Divide...with
relative humidities in the low teens.. On Monday and cold front
does move through the area in the afternoon...but strong winds
coupled with continued mild temperatures...albeit cooler...will
still be in place at least through mid afternoon. As a
result...the fire danger again be high. See the fire weather
discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Strong northwest winds will continue into the evening hours with a
strong pressure gradient and large scale subsidence in place. Then
winds will gradually decrease and turn more anticyclonic overnight
as surface high pressure builds in from the north. There is still
some wind through the night on the northeastern plains, so despite
clearing skies temps may stay above freezing on most of the

By Tuesday, a fast moving short wave will move into the Central
Rockies. This will bring increasing lift as seen in the QG fields
and increasing mid/upper level moisture. This should get a few
rain and snow showers going over the high country by afternoon.
With the strong jet stream overhead, would not be surprised to see
an organized band of showers streak east onto the plains Tuesday
night. At this time, temperatures do not appear to get cold enough
for snow on the plains. Mountain areas may pick up light snow
accumulations of a couple inches.

After that, the various medium range models all show a drier and
subsident airmass spreading over the forecast area. Temperatures
will warm back to above normal levels by Friday and remain in
place through next weekend thanks to a large upper level ridge
building over the Central and Southern Rockies.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 830 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Winds should gradually go to southeast and then to normal
drainage patterns at DIA by 06Z. There will be no ceiling issues

Issued at 131 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Strongest winds today have been in and near the foothills from
Boulder County northward and south of Denver along the Palmer
Divide...relative humidities generally in the low teens.
There will be just a modest RH recovery overnight as gusty winds
and mild overnight temperatures are expected. On Monday...strong
winds aloft with a cold front moving through the northeast plains
later in the aftn. Temperatures will not be a warm as today but
still well above normal. Gust winds ahead and following fropa so a
the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for
the Front Range Foothills...South Park and Northeast Plains
starting 11 am mdt Monday morning.

Fire danger will gradually decrease Monday evening with
cooler temperatures and increasing humidity. However, threat for a
wind driven grass fire due to strong winds would last into the


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ214>216-

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM MDT Monday for



LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...Cooper/Barjenbruch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.