Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 191048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
448 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Summer will take a break for the next couple days as a cool
airmass has moved in from the north and an upper level trough will
be overhead through tonight. Mostly cloudy skies and winds out of
the north will keep temperatures some 15 degrees cooler than
normal this afternoon. Model soundings show that the airmass will
be quite moist through the day. GPS integrated precipitable water
values this morning are just short of one inch this morning and
may drop to 0.75 inches by midday. Regardless, enough moisture is
going to be present for the dynamic forcing from the upper level
trough to produce shower activity through the day. Embedded
thunderstorms are going to be possible through the afternoon
hours. QG diagnostic fields show mid-level subsidence developing
tonight, but cross sections show low levels of will remain nearly
satuated. This may produce a conditionally unstable airmass that
is able to produce showers if the low level upslope remains strong
enough. Will bring down the Pops a little bit tonight, but still
hold onto a slight chance of showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Models have weak west-northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
Saturday well into Sunday, then it is weak southwesterly into the
later days. There is very weak downward motion progged on the QG
Omega fields Saturday through Sunday night. The boundary layer
flow looks to be dominated by normal diurnal patterns Saturday
through Sunday night. Moisture is pretty sparse Saturday and
Saturday night, then increases Sunday and Sunday night.
Precipitable water values are in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range
Saturday into Saturday night, then they increase into the 0.50 to
1.0 inch range by late day Sunday. There is a tad of CAPE over the
southwestern and south central CWA Saturday late day. There is
plenty of CAPE progged on Sunday and Sunday evening for all but
the northwestern and north central CWA. There is a tad of
measurable rainfall over the southwestern CWA late day Saturday,
with a bit more coverage for late day Sunday. For pops will go
with 0-30%s both late day periods, with the highest pops for the
the higher CWA areas. Saturday`s high temperatures will be close
to today`s readings. Sunday`s highs will be 2-5 C warmer than
Saturday`s. For the later days, Monday through Thursday, models
have weak upper troughiness around for Colorado Monday night well
into Thursday. Will have the best pops in the mountians.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Low ceilings and periods of precipitation will be the rule today
as moist upslope flow continues across northeast Colorado while an upper
trough moves overhead. MVFR ceilings should be expected most of
the day with some improvement during the afternoon as afternoon
heating and vertical mixing raises cloud heights as high as
5000-6000 feet agl. Rain showers are expected at times this
morning and then some thunder may mix in during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Winds will be out of the north and northeast
for most of the day. Later tonight should see the winds come a bit
more easterly with low celings persisting.


.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Dankers is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.