Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240919
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
319 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AN UPPER LVL STORM SYSTEM OVER MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS BY TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAVE NRN CO WITH WSW MID LVL FLOW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL JET RESIDES OVER THE AREA.  THE AIRMASS THRU THE AFTN
HOURS WIL BE DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE SO IT APPEARS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  OVER NERN CO IT
APPEARS THE PLAINS WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY SOME ISOLD LATE AFTN
CONVECTION FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL
KEEP READINGS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OS SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR TONIGHT A WK FNT WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRES RESIDES OVER SERN CO.  GRIDDED FIELDS INCREASING SELY LOW LVL
FLOW THI EVENING WITH THETA-E ADVECTION INTO NERN CO ALONG THE FNT.
MEANWHILE A WK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS NRN CO TONIGHT WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A CHC OF TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE OVER
THE FAR NERN PLAINS PAST MIDNIGHT.  THUS WILL LEAVE IN CHC POPS FM
PREVIOUS FCST OVER THE PLAINS.  WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IN
PLACE COULD SEE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL
AND STG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS GETTING SLOER. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE TIMING OF THE NAM/ECMWF IS SLOER AND SIMILAR
IN TRACK. THESE MODELS BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS COLORADO
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS MAY CARRYOVER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WL KEEP CHC POPS GOING TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS COULD BE HIGHER BUT THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH IS SUSPECT STILL SO DO NOT WANT COMMIT TO MORE THAN CHC
POPS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO COLORADO MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BLO NORMALS. HAVE OPTED TO
LOWER THE HIGHS A BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE ACTUAL HIGHS HAVE BEEN RUNNING COOLER THAN FORECAST. A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WEST SHOULD HELP BRING DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

WINDS WERE SSE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE SSW BY 15Z.
BY EARLY AFTN THEY MAY BECOME LIGHT NWLY.  OVERALL TSTM THREAT LOOKS
RATHER AFTER 21Z THRU 00Z WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF DIA.
FOR THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHC OF STORMS BETWEEN 00Z AND
03Z.  WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND THEN SWLY
AFTER 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK



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