Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 112129
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
329 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

EVENTS ARE UNFOLDING ABOUT AS PLANNED. STILL AREAS OF DRIZZLE ON
THE PLAINS WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT
RANGE. EXPECTED AREA OF LIFT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING
BORDER WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AROUND CHEYENNE. SECONDARY FRONT
STRENGTHENING NOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH PRESSURE RISES IN
WYOMING AND FALLS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL PUSH COLDER
LOW LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THIS
TIMING I BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE TIME THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN...KEEPING IT NORTH OF BOULDER AND GREELEY UNTIL AFTER 10 PM.
WITH THE FORECAST HINGING ON A COUPLE OF DEGREES WE WILL KEEP RAIN
AND SNOW WORDING...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
MOST AREAS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE
ALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 76 BY SUNRISE AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH SOME BANDING THAT COULD PRODUCE MODERATE
SNOWFALL...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM AND THE AIR WILL
BARELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY JUST
HAVE A DUSTING ON THE GRASS. HARDEST HIT SPOTS COULD HAVE AN INCH
OR TWO ON THE GRASS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL
ISSUES...EVEN IN THE FOOTHILLS THE GROUND IS PRETTY WARM.

FOR FRIDAY STRATUS MAY HANG IN ON THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.
IT WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RECOVER TO TODAYS LEVELS...FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS LOOKS GOOD WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50 UNDER THE INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST INTO KANSAS. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WYOMING AND HELP TO TRANSITION THE
WINDS TO A MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW-LYING
CLOUDS. THIS WARMER AIR COMBINED WILL DOWNSLOPING WINDS STARTING
AROUND 06Z ACCORDING TO THE MODELS WILL AID IN RADIATION COOLING
AND ALLOW SOME AREAS TO FORM PATCHY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AREAS OUT IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST WITH THE DEWPOINTS GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING BY 12Z
SATURDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND COMBINE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN TO START THE DRYING OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
A SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO NE COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA FLOW WILL CHANGE TO A MORE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BRINGING COLD AIR DOWN AND PUTTING A BREAK
ON THE WARM UP FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z AS
RAIN BECOMES WIDESPREAD. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 04Z
AND 08Z...THEN END BY 12Z. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ON
THE GRASS. VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE OVER 1/2
MILE BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO 1/4 MILE. ON FRIDAY EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 16-18Z. CLEARING LIKELY BY 22Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BOWEN



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