Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 160932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
332 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Strong West to Southwesterly flow will continue over the region
through tonight with an approaching upper level jet. On the
surface high pressure over the western portion of the state
combined with a deepening surface low over the eastern plains will
help to increase winds over the divide. Model cross sections do
not indicate a mean stable layer so this will keep the higher
winds isolated to above timberline where gusts up to 80 mph will
be possible by this evening...especially over the higher Front
Range mountains. Some increased wind gusts could make it to the
higher foothills with gusts upwards of 45 possible. Fire weather
conditions will be elevated today with low relative humidity and
increased winds over the foothills as well as portions of
Elbert...Douglas and Lincoln counties. Another warm day in store
as well with temperatures reaching into the mid 80s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Stg wsw flow aloft will remain over the area on Mon. Some
moisture will increase in the nrn mtns by early aftn and combined
with placement of upper level jet and passage of a pacific fnt
should lead to a chc of showers especially in zns 31 and 33 with
lower chances further south. As far as wind potential with stg mid
lvl flow there will likely be some wind gusts aoa 70 mph abv
timberline so will leave high wind watch in place.

Fm the foothills across nern CO it will remain dry with increasing
wind by midday in advance of the pacific fnt which will move across
the plains by mid to late aftn.  High Fire Danger will continue as
well due to gusty winds and low humidity. As far as highs readings
will be 8 to 10 degrees cooler as pacific fnt moves across nern CO
in the aftn.

Mon night into Tue the flow aloft will be swly in advance of an
upper level trough. At the sfc low pres will be over cntrl CO as
a weak sfc high moves east into the cntrl plains. Moisture will
increase in the mtns by midday and with some mid lvl qg ascent
there will be a chc of showers especially north of I-70. Over nern
CO it will remain dry with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

For Tue night into Wed the upper level trough will move across the
area with decent mid lvl qg ascent mainly Tue night.  In addition
with favorable orographic flow and deeper moisture should see a good
chc of snow in the mtns which could be enhanced by position of the
upper level jet north of I-70.  Across nern CO sfc low pres will
move into sern CO as a cdfnt moves into nern CO Tue night.  With
position of upper level jet and favorable mid lvl ascent may see an
area of banded pcpn north of the fnt.  At this time best focus looks
to be fm Fort Collins to Greeley to Fort Morgan north to the WY
border so will go with chc pops in this area.  Further south pcpn
chances look lower.  By 18z Wed the main upper level trough will be
moving east of the area as drier air in nwly flow aloft begins to
move into nrn CO.  This pcpn chances will gradually end in the aftn.
As for highs readings will range from 55 to 60 degrees over nern CO.

By Thu into Fri dry wnw flow aloft will be over the area so no pcpn
is expected.  Highs on Thu will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
over nern CO and then be nr seasonal levels on Fri.  On Sat a flat
upper level ridge will be over the area with dry conditions and
warmer temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
continue to be from the SW through most of the period with a
deepening surface low to the north. Winds will increase with
gusting up to 25 mph possible between 21 and 01z this evening as
an upper level jet moves overhead. Winds will return to drainage
by 03z. Ceilings will build in through the period with a high
level BKN deck possible by this evening as moisture increases over
the divide into a possible mountain wave. This will increase
turbulence concerns over the mountains with increasing high winds
from the west.


Issued at 259 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Fire weather continues to be a concern as RH recovery continues to
be poor and reaching into the teens and below today. Winds will
also increase over the foothills and southern portions of the CWA
into this evening. A Red Flag Warning has been issued and will
continue through late Sunday with heightened fire weather
conditions elsewhere not in the warning...especially fire weather
zone 243 which is borderline.

Winds will strengthen further on Monday as a strong jet stream
pushes into the Central Rockies. There will be some cooling but
the stronger and more widespread winds will develop in the wake
of a pacific cold front especially on the plains with increasing
grassland fire danger. A fire weather watch will remain in place
for Monday from the foothills across the plains.


Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ214>216-238>251.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
evening for COZ213>216-238-239-241-246-247.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Monday evening for



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