Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240222
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
822 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SOME SIGNFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE CUT
BACK PRECIPIATION MOST AREAS BUT WHERE THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING THROUGH EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO. THAT WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND OUT OF THE STATE IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. THE MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TRANSITION THE STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND QG ASCENT TO POTENTIAL BRING NEAR
SEVERE STORMS WITH CLOSE TO 1 INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA BY 01Z LEAVING LOWERED
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPING NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING JUST ENOUGH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY 18Z ON SUNDAY. CURRENT POPS AND WX GRIDS LOOK
GOOD. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS KEEP AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE VERY WEAK UPWARD MOTION
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...BECOMING A
BIT STRONGER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
MOSTLY HAS SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT TO IT MUCH OF THE TIME FOR THE
FIVE PERIODS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...
THERE IS PLENTY PROGGED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00
INCH RANGE FROM THE HIGH FOOTHILLS TO THE EASTERN BOARDER SUNDAY
NIGHT. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RANGE IS
0.70 TO 1.40 INCH. THERE IS PRETTY DECENT CAPE PROGGED...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE DAY MONDAY...
THEN OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS LATE DAY TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE 40S BY THE DIVIDE TO
WIDESPREAD 60S F FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR CWA SUNDAY
EVENING. BY MONDAY EVENING...THERE IS QUITE A BIT PROGGED OVER THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF. MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS
PROGGED ALL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY PROGGED FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE CWA. FOR POPS...WILL UP THEM
A BIT FORM CURRENT GFE GRIDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIODS AND AREAS.
NOTHING OVER "CHANCE"S RIGHT NOW HOWEVER. FOR TEMPERATURES...
MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN SUNDAY`S. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
3-5 C COOLER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SLOWLY
FORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH IT FLATTENING SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE AND POPS DECREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRIER STILL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 820 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND
MOSTLY LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AWAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS AFTER 20Z ON
SUNDAY...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING...WITH SOME REDUCTION OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BOWEN



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