Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 102214

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
314 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

Main shower band associated with this evening`s trough is through
Cheyenne and will be moving through Summit county and the Denver
metro area during the late afternoon hours. There are some decent
showers, but dry low level air has left virga over the plains
outside of this band, and mainly light rain showers under the
heaviest echoes. Over the higher elevations it is a different
story with accumulating snow but data so far looks like maybe an
inch per hour at most. There are strong northwest winds behind the
shower band, while the real cold front has strong north winds
pushing south about 40 miles north of Cheyenne. These will come
together better across far eastern Colorado, where the cold air
may undercut the remaining showers in the early evening and
produce a little snow. Still some doubt about it cooling off
enough in time for any accumulation. Behind the trough there will
be strong north winds this evening, with gusts of 40-50 mph for a
few hours on the plains. There could still be some minimal showers
squeezed out as the colder air rushes in, but it looks like the
general trend should be drying, so the chance PoPs clinging to the
Palmer Divide and southern foothills until around midnight seems
like enough. For the high mountains still a shallow moist unstable
layer most of the night for another inch or two overnight after
the main band passes.

Winds should be decreasing on the plains by morning, though it
will still be breezy toward the northeast corner through Thursday.
There is a brief shot at mountain wave amplification around
sunrise as the jet axis on the back side of the trough moves over
the Front Range. Probably not enough westerly component to the
flow at ridge level for a high wind threat, but it could be enough
to produce a quick pop of 40-50 mph gusts in the foothills and
more on the higher east slopes for a few hours, then the winds
should drop off significantly. Still a little moisture for some
very marginal clouds/flurries over the ridges on Thursday.

Temperatures will be cool tonight, especially considering the
wind, but there should be decent recovery on Thursday with some
wind and lots of sunshine on the plains. I raised the forecast
highs a little tomorrow in line with guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 314 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

Rain showers will move through the Denver area through about 04z
with localized MVFR conditions. Some snow may mix in after 01z,
but if there is any accumulation it will be less than an inch and
mainly on grassy areas. Ceilings will lift with VFR conditions
expected after 06z through the day on Thursday. North winds will
gust  to 30 knots until 04z, then diminish.


Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ031-



SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Gimmestad is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.