Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 211948
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
148 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015

A FEW HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS STARTING TO POP...WHILE THE
CIRRUS IS STILL SLOWING ITS APPROACH. DELAYED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING A FEW HOURS. HIGH CLOUD BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
THIS AND LOW LEVELS ARE DRY. STRONGER PART OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY...BUT AT OUR LATITUDE THERE IS
NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CONTRAST AND THE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH BASED.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN TODAY
HOWEVER...AND THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND SLIGHT
MOISTENING THROUGHOUT COULD LEAD TO AN AREA OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EXPECT BOTH COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS TO BE LOW.
FORECAST TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...TWEAKED SUNDAYS HIGHS TOWARD THE
NAM MOS WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN CO WILL
SHIFT EAST OF CO WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY.
SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AOA 600
MB...ALONG SOME INSTABILITY...FOR SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS/MAYBE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY NORTH OF DENVER...IN THE
MOUNTAINS SCATTERED COVERAGE. ON MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHING FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SELY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS
WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SELY WINDS IN THE
AFTN. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST POSTFRONTAL WINDS WILL
OCCUR AS THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CONTINUED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH GUSTY WNWLY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED IN SPITE
OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS ARE LOW FOR THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...PROBABLY JUST SOME ISOLATED COVERAGE. TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION. OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS WITH A STRONG
BUT DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT
DRIER ON FRIDAY AS THE STORM TRACK GETS SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST OF COLORADO. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND THIS TIME...WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WIND DIRECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IT MAY STAY SOUTHEAST OR GO LIGHT ENE FOR A FEW
HOURS...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THERE COULD BE A FEW
HOURS OF NORTHWEST WINDS BEFORE THE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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