Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 291705
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1105 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA THAT WILL LIKELY SPARK
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER NRN CO TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE A CORE OF STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDED FM WRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NERN CO AND
COMBINED WITH A WK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS WHICH MAY LINGER THRU AT LEAST MID MORNING.

AT THE SFC A BNDRY IS FCST TO MOVE INTO NERN CO BY MIDDAY POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WRN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH
COULD CLIP THE FAR NERN PLAINS BY EARLY AFTN.  THUS WILL LEAVE IN
LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  AS THE SFC
BNDRY MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW TSTMS
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE AFTN.

MEANWHILE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST
TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SOME WIDELY SCT STORMS BY
LATE MORNING WITH SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70 INTO SOUTH PARK.  AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AS MID LVL TEMPS ARE FCST TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER.  AS FOR
TEMPS 850-700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE FM YESTERDAY SO AFTN HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.  THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS.  WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED
ON TUESDAY WITH NORMAL PATTERNS TUESDAY NIGHT.   A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AND NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN A
WEAK GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
AROUND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE FOR
WEDNESDAY TOO. PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.6 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40 TO LOWER 50S F
RANGE TUESDAY MORNING. THEY INCREASE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
60S F BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME CAPE AROUND...THE BEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY
...THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS LATE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL BOTH
LATE DAY PERIODS...AND MORE SO OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR THE
LATE DAY PERIODS BOTH DAYS. WILL GO WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE"S OUT ON
THE PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 2-4 C
WARMER THAN TODAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S COOL DOWN 2-5 C.  FOR THE LATER
DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN IT MIGRATES A BIT EASTWARD
TOWARDS COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE IS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...NEXT WEEKEND DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE VEERING AROUND
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL BE LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
STAYING IN THE FOOTHILLS...OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EAST OVER
PLAINS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TAFS TSTM FREE.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BACK
TO DRAINAGE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH RANGE IN STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN
ISOLATED SPOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...RPK


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