Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 181534
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
934 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS STREAMING EAST FROM UTAH THIS
MORNING. LEADING EDGE HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO. AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WAS NOTED OVER
SOUTHERN WYOMING...WHICH SHOULD HELP SPARK BETTER STORM COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE BELOW 550 MB IS QUITE LIMITED PER 12Z DENVER
AND GRAND JUNCTION SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY
WINDS AND ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL FROM THE MAJORITY OF STORMS TODAY AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CAPES COULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT ONLY IF CAP CAN BE
BROKEN. AT THE PRESENT TIME...STRATUS IS DELAYING HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN TEXAS TO NEVADA TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO
LATER TODAY. IT IS ALREADY PRODUCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS OVER WYOMING. AS THIS WAVE DROPS INTO COLORADO...IT WILL
COINCIDE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND TRIGGER SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.  IN ADDITION TO THIS WAVE...CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH. DEW POINTS WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE
HIGH BASED WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STORMS. CAPES WILL BE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG AND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LOW...THOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND GUST TO 60 MPH CANNOT
BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. HOWEVER THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE HWO. COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER.

EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER TODAY
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
FM SAT INTO SUN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON SAT AND THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUN.
APPEARS TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT RANGE ON
SAT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ON SUN. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH READINGS IN THE 90S BOTH DAYS ACROSS NERN
CO.

FOR MON AND TUE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE RGN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP TSTM COVERAGE IN THE ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT RANGE WITH THE BEST CHC IN THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE HOT
WITH READINGS IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO.

BY MID WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CNTRL AND
SRN ROCKIES. SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC FOR TSTMS WED AND THU. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS STILL INTO THE 90S BOTH DAYS ACROSS
NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TURN CLOCKWISE AS EXPECTED AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS 19Z...WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 40 KTS THE MAIN CONCERN. GUSTY WIND
PROBABILITY WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT TEMPO VRB GUSTY WINDS IN THE TAFS. ONLY LIGHT RAIN WOULD
OCCUR WITH NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WOULD MAINLY
STAY ABOVE 9000-11000 FEET. STORM THREAT SHOULD END BY 01Z-02Z
WITH LIGHT AND NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. QUICK MOVING STORMS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING VERY LOW.

THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...MEIER/RPK



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