000
FXUS65 KBOU 072225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT REAL DATA IS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WESTERN CWA AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE ARE A FEW
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PLAINS..BUT NOTHING GREAT. THERE ARE
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO A DENVER CYCLONE ON GOING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA THIS EVENING...
THEN IS BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE
FLOW ALOFT IS STILL NEARLY WESTERLY...WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY. DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE
UPWARD MOTION IS PROGGED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
CWA. DOWNWARD MOTION FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PROGGED OVER THE
PLAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS. FOR MOISTURE...THE GFS SHOWS THE
MOST...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HAVING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE...OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL. THE NAM
AND ECMWF HAVE DECENT MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IT DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
THOSE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. THE
QPF FIELDS SHOW A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR POPS...WILL
KEEP THE 60-90%S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE "CHANCE"S OUT ON THE
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN REASON TO KEEP THE POPS AS
HIGH AS THEY ARE IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ADVERTISED QG ASCENT.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE WILL BE NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF COLORADO WITH
DRIER AND WARMER AIR SHIFTING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF US THAT WILL BRING A
LITTLE LOW LEVEL COOLING...SOME CLOUD COVER...AND AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS ALOFT ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING MONDAY. BEHIND THIS WE WILL HAVE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
A MOUNTAIN WAVE...THOUGH SPEEDS ARE NOT REAL STRONG. THIS SHOULD
HELP SHRINK THE COLD AIR DOWN TO A SHALLOW LAYER...AND AREAS CLOSE
TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH LESS EFFECT ON
THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSING NORTH OF US LATE
TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT...AND WE HAVE COOLED
WEDNESDAY DOWN A LITTLE...IT MAY BE NEAR FREEZING IN DENVER BOTH
DAYS. ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS PRETTY DRY AT THIS POINT...SO WE WILL
JUST CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

RIDGE AXIS AND DRY AIR COME OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN THE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIMITED BY LIGHT WINDS STABILITY...AND REMAINING SNOW COVER SO
WHILE THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD WARMING ALOFT BY THURSDAY THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LAG BEHIND.

THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...EXCEPT THAT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON US DUE
TO THE DRY AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST AT THAT POINT. ECMWF HAS
BEEN TRENDING SLOWER/STRONGER AND DEVELOPING A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS STRONGER LOW DROPS SOUTH OF US. GFS HAS A
QUICK TROUGH THAT HAS NOTHING TO WORK WITH. JUST LOW POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT THOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING AT DIA RIGHT NOW. FOG
...HAZE OR FLURRIES ARE STILL TRYING TO LOWER THE VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS ARE STILL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO
IFR OR MVFR BY EARLY EVENING. NOT TO CONFIDENT ABOUT SNOW AT
DIA...SO "TEMPO"S ARE STILL GOOD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RJK