000
FXUS65 KBOU 230956
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
356 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Broad high pressure ridge aloft continues to build over much of
the Great Basin resulting in a west to northwest flow aloft over
Colorado. This flow pattern continues to bring in drier air aloft.
Precipitable water trends from GPS continue to drop, now around a
third of an inch lower than 24 hours ago. Water vapor imagery
showing some weak ripple in the flow moving across northeast
Colorado now with even isolated showers over Morgan county. This
looks to be gone by sunrise. Forecast soundings today look to dry
for any storms on the plains with any activity confined to
mountains and higher terrain near the Palmer Divide. Temperatures
look to be very similar to Saturday`s readings. Any storms that do
develop this afternoon will diminish early this evening with lack
of any upper support.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

The upcoming week could end up being wetter and more unsettled than
earlier thought. Models continue to show a broad upper ridge over
the central CONUS during the first part of the week. On the west
side of this ridge waves of moist and unstable subtropical air
rotate northeastward over the Four Corners region, which should lead
to enhanced t-storm activity across the region, including much of
Colorado. Models show a couple of mid-level shortwave disturbances
embedded in this moist swly flow, the first one apparently reaching
the CWA late on Tuesday, and the other late on Wednesday. Because of
decent agreement in the models, will up PoPs acrs the fcst area
Tuesday and Wednesday, esply across the high country since swly flow
orographically favors west slope areas. Mid and high clouds may
continue to convection east of the mtns, however outflow from t-
storms over the Front Range may be all that`s needed to spark
isolated to scattered late day t-storms on the plains and Palmer
Divide. A relatively dry sub-cloud environment indicated by model
soundings could lead to more gusty winds than soaking rainfall.
Although cannot rule out a few slow moving t-storms producing heavy
rainfall esply with the passing shortwaves. See temperatures
remaining above average Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low/mid
90s at lower elevations. On Wednesday, 1.5-2 deg C cooling aloft and
greater cloud cover should give most areas a 3-6 deg f cool down.

During the latter half of the week, models show the upper ridge
weakening over he Great Plains and building over the Great
Basin/intermountain west. This appears to only slightly reduce the
chance of storms across the fcst area as the airmass over Colorado
appears to remain relatively moist and unstable. See little change
in temperature through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

No storms expected at terminals today with any activity confined
to mountains and higher terrain. surface winds will become light
and variable by mid morning and then shifting east and southeast
this afternoon. No impacts expected today.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Entrekin