Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 292100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
300 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage across the cwa through
early this evening. The latest HRRR generally shows weak to
moderate strength storms...with sfc based capes around 500 j/kg
along the Urban Corridor...maybe some higher capes closer to 1000
j/kg across the northeast plains. no severe expected...but a few
storms could produce small hail and wind gusts to 45 mph
east/southeast of Denver. On Monday...should have better pcpn/tstm
coverage in the mountains ahead of a trough axis that stretches fm
western Wyoming into western AZ. NAM12 forecast soundings for
Denver in the 600-800 j/kg range with 1400 j/kg at Akron. Overall
shear not very strong so chance of severe will be low...maybe some
strong wind gusts to 60 mph with inverted v profile present.
Temperatures on Monday similar to today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Models have weak southwesterly flow aloft Monday night into mid
day Tuesday before an upper trough pushes across the CWA. The flow
aloft is west-northwesterly by Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, weak
northwesterly flow aloft cover the forecast area. There is weak QG
upward motion for the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday
afternoon, then weak downward motion is in place through Wednesday
night. The low level pressure and wind fields show a cold front
with north-northeasterly flow behind it from 06z to 09z Monday
night. After that, east or northeasterly low levels winds are
progged for the CWA all of Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Southeasterlies are progged on Wednesday...with northern drainage
patterns Wednesday night. There is pretty good moisture over the
CWA through midnight Tuesday, then moisture decreases
significantly. There is some CAPE over the CWA Monday evening,
mostly under 1000 j/kg. On Tuesday and Tuesday evening, the only
CAPE is over the mountains and foothills. The same goes for
Wednesday, with a little bit over the adjacent plains. The lapse
rates are pretty steep during the later day periods over the
mountains and foothills for sure. The plains are pretty stable on
Tuesday with a cooler low level airmass in place. For pops,
20-50%s will do Monday evening. For Tuesday, 30-50%s are good for
all but the eastern half of the plains that look too stable. On
Wednesday, 10-30%s look good for mostly the mountains and
foothills. For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs are 3-8 C cooler than
Monday`s. Wedensday`s highs are 1-3 C warmer than Tuesday. For the
later days, Thursday through Sunday, upper ridging will dominate
through the period with weak flow aloft. Moisture will be lacking
on the plains. There will be minor pops for mostly the high
country with temperatures a bit above normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

The main area of thunderstorm is moving to the south and east of
Denver this afternoon...but outflow boundaries generated by these
cells may still produce an isolated tstm or two in the Denver area
until 01z. east/southeasterly winds primarily through this evening
before drainage winds kick in late this evening. overall vfr
conditions over the next 24 hrs. Conditions on Monday similar to
today...but more moisture in the mid levels could amount to
stronger outflow winds fm any tstms that develop in the afternoon.


.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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