Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOU 060206
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
806 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FRM PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAVE RACED ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER. MEANWHILE A CDFNT HAS JUST MOVED THRU CYS WITH COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS DVLP BEHIND THE FNT THRU MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LIGHTNING IS EXPLODING IN THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM ARIZONA TO
WYOMING. THIS IS DUE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
IN NORTHWEST COLORADO AND A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
WE STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
EAST...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE TROUGH. AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT...WHILE KEEPING
LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. FORECAST CAPES A LITTLE OVER
A 1000 MAY RESULT IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST...OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND LOCALL HEAVY RAIN...
BUT EXPECTED STORM MOTION WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM WYOMING THIS EVENING...WITH
GRADUAL MOISTENING LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH MUCH ELSE FOR MONDAY. BCCONSALL
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES...FOR POPS ON MONDAY IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH THE PLAINS WILL BE CAPPED...BUT WITH UPSLOPE AREAS FROM
THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GETTING SCATTERED TO
LIKELY RAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
EARLY...BUT CLOUDY MOST OF THE DAY WITH RISING CEILINGS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONSOONAL PATTERN STARTS TO COME TOGETHER TO BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL
WITH THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. NE FLOW UPSLOPE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE THAT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING FOR THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STAY ISOLATED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AS PWS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH. FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO SWITCH TO A MORE SW DIRECTION THAT WILL AID IN
CONTINUING TO BRING MOISTURE NORTH INTO COLORADO. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BE FROM THE SE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. THE FAR
NE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE WITH SHOWERS CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL
ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC PUSHES INLAND. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH STEADY MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CDFNT HAS MOVED THRU CYS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND GUSTY NE WINDS
BEHIND FNT. LOOKS LIKE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS DIA BETWEEN 10 PM AND
11 PM WITH LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RTG



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.