Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 282053
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
253 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE COLORADO-NEBRASKA BORDER. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. A MOIST SLIGHT UNSTABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE STORMS. DUE TO THE COOL AIRMASS...SMALL HAIL MAY
OCCUR TOO. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING
AND SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MORNING...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING...SO EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH LOW IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

IT WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...AIRMASS WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW OF
THESE COULD MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE 10-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

DESPITE THE WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS COLORADO ON FRIDAY
EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS FOR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS SOME QG ASCENT WITH THIS TROF ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE MOUNTAIN AND PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE. DRIER AND
MORE SUBSIDENT AIR FILTERS INTO COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CUT OFF ANY PRECIP FAIRLY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

A DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THIS PERIOD THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED STORM OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UNDER A SOUTHEAST LOW LVLF LOW. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER FURTHER WEST...SO VERY LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE
OF STORMS OVER MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z AND THEN DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND SETTLE SOUTHERLY AROUND 06Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING ENDING
03Z...AND LIKELY A LITTLE SOONER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN/MEIER
AVIATION...MEIER


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