Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161657
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
957 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG LINGERING IN NORTH PARK AND VICINITY OF
WALDEN. THERE WERE JUST A FEW CLOUDS HANGING ON THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ALONG
THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA BEFORE NOON AND THEN TOWARD DENVER BY 1
PM. UPDATED SKY GRIDS A BIT FOR LATEST DATA. UNTIL THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD WARMING BUT INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON COULD KEEP TEMPS BACK A COUPLE DEGREES. A FEW SPOTS
WITHOUT SNOW COVER ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD STILL POP JUST
ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE HOURS BUT MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
HOLD AT OR JUST BELOW 32F FOR HIGHS. OTHER CHALLENGE IS WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AT THIS
TIME NOT REAL CONFIDENT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR DUE TO SNOW COVER
AFFECTING DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. IT WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS HOWEVER MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
GREELEY TO NEAR DIA...AND ALSO WINDY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS A COUPLE
HOURS AS INITIAL CLOUD DECK IS QUITE SHALLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BOTTOM OF A POSITIVE TILT UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING DOWN FROM WYOMING CONTINUES TO STREAM LOW/MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS NEWRD OVER THE SOUTHERN ONE-THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS HOUR. STREAKY CLOUDS EVIDENT ON IR AND H2O SAT IMAGERY. LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW FLURRIES STILL BEING REPORTED AT A FEW MTN SITES IN SUMMIT
AND PARK COUNTIES AS WELL AS NEAR THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS FROM
BOULDER SOUTHWARD. ANY NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE CLEARING WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE FLOW ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO VEER
TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY. THIS
CLEARING AND NLY WND PROFILE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CLEARING DOES NOT LAST LONG AS
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE TIED TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RACING SEWRD ACRS SERN WYOMING/NERN COLORADO
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE LIGHT
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN QPF/SNOWFALL IN THE NRN MTNS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE...PERHAPS AN INCH AT BEST ON
HIGHER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...SO WILL WIND
SPEEDS...PARTICULARLY ON MTN RIDGES...EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE
AND ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 35-50
MPH RANGE IN THE MTNS/FTHLS AND 20-30 MPH ON THE NERN PLAINS. WIND
SPEEDS ARE FCST TO SLACK OFF ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
JUST AS GUSTY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NWLY WITH
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SLOW WARMING
TREND...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CARVED OUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT FOR
COLORADO IS A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH GRADUALLY EASES
BY MID WEEK. GRADUALLY...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS THE
RIDGING FLATTENS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...MONDAY WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WIND
DIRECTION A BIT TOO NORTH FOR HIGH WINDS BUT CERTAINLY SOME GUSTS
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. THE PLAINS
WILL BE DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD UNDER SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS.

EXPECT STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW BACKS A BIT MORE
WESTERLY AND INCREASING MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY DEVELOPS. GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. CERTAINLY THIS WILL
BEAR WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASED
SURFACE GRADIENT. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS AS
WELL AS SOME OF THIS WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DOWNSLOPE ONTO THE
PLAINS.

AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY LATE WEEK...EXPECT INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME
DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BUT OVERALL MOISTURE APPEARS A BIT
LIMITED. BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS DURING THE
LATE WEEK AS THE GFS HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE WHILE GFS REMAINS
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM
PERIODS BUT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR REST OF TODAY IS WINDS. AT THIS TIME...WEAK
ANTICYCLONE IS FORMING WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TIL AT LEAST 19Z. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR MORE
WARMING/MIXING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AT THE SAME TIME
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 7000 FT AGL
BY 20Z-21Z WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING. THUS...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING IF/WHEN WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
DELAYED THE TRANSITION AND ALSO WEAKENED THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
FOR THE LATEST TAFS 20Z-00Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT 02Z-06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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