Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 160254
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
854 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION MOVING TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. MADE
SOME TEMPERATURE UPDATES TO FORECAST BUT POPS...WEATHER AND
CEILINGS LOOKED GOOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

THERE IS SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA
WITH A BIT OVER MORGAN COUNTY OF THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. THERE IS
300-400 J/KG OF CAPE OFF THE DIA AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS. MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER TO STAY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK
DOWNWARD MOTION PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ADHERE TO A MIXTURE OF
NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS WITH A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING THROWN IN.
SATURDAY`S WINDS LOOK TO BE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY. FOR MOISTURE
...SATURDAY LOOKS A TAD DRIER THAN TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS ARE MAINLY PROGGED IN THE MID 40S F TO MID 50S F TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...THEY ARE IN THE MID 30S F TO MID 40S F RANGE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY RANGE FROM 0.50 INCH OVER THE FOOTHILLS TO 0.80
INCH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE NAM KEEPS SOME CAPE AROUND THIS
EVENING...MOSTLY OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CAPE IS LIMITED
OVER ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW SOME
RAINFALL MOSTLY OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE IS A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ONLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. SO FOR POPS THIS EVENING...10-20%S FOR THE PLAINS...UP
TO 30%S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...10-20%S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS ONLY. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S READINGS ARE 0.5
TO 1.5 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE LONG TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC DYNAMICS TO HELP OR HINDER
CONVECTION.  THE ECMWF HINTS AT AN APPROACHING TROUGH BY FRIDAY
WHICH MAY AID PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN.  THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND TO BUBBLE UP INTO AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FLOATING AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO NORMAL DRAINAGE AFTER STORM PASSAGE.
EXPECT A DRIER PATTERN TOMORROW WITH PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLIES BY
15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BOWEN



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