Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 131746
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1046 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

Forecast the remainder of the day looks on track. The storm system
located across SW New Mexico continues to pump mid level moisture
across most of the state. The only part of the CWA that has been
receiving any precipitation is southern Lincoln County. Surface
wet bulb, dual-pol data, and surface obs point to a very cold
rain. Amounts will continue to be light in the area and the
precipitation should end mid-afternoon there. Elsewhere, Plains
temperatures should warm to around 50 behind a northerly push
which will usher in drier and slightly warmer air throughout the
day. Winds will be 10-20 mph across the plains and I-25 corridor
this afternoon.

In the mountains, most areas will remain dry the rest of today
with the exception being Summit and southern Park Counties which
are seeing light snow showers now which should continue through
early evening before ending as the mid and upper-level storm
system continues to push east and remain well south of CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

The upper low will be moving east and northeast into southern
Arizona today and across southern New Mexico tonight. With this
movement, considerable amounts of mid and high level moisture are
streaming into southern and eastern Colorado this morning. Much
of the ongoing snow is across southeast Colorado but there has
been a slight north and northeast nudge of the moisture. This will
result in a slight chance of snow across southern Lincoln county
today and also across mountain sections of Summit and Park
counties as well.

The trend for this afternoon and tonight will be decreasing
moisture and precip chances over eastern colorado as upper level
trof over Montana and Wyoming will be shunting the moisture south
of the area as it moves southeast. Temperatures will be a bit
warmer today as some sunshine expected this afternoon. Clearing
and cold tonight as high pressure aloft over northern rockies
begins to build southward.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

An upper level ridge will be over the Great Basin Tue into Wed with
the mid lvl flow switching fm nely to nwly.  However there is very
little moisture embedded in the flow so both days will be dry.  Sfc
high pres will be over the area on Tue and will be replaced by a
sfc lee trough on Wed. Highs on Tue will be in the upper 40s to
mid 50s across the plains and then wrm into the lower to mid 60s
by Wed.

On Thu the flow aloft will become more wly with a well defined sfc
lee trough east of the mtns.  This will lead to dry conditions with
even warmer temps as highs rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s
over nern CO. On fri the flow aloft will become more swly as an
upper level trough moves nr the west coast. There is some moisture
embedded in the flow however with dry lower levels and wrm mid
lvl temps it will be dry except for a slight chc of showers in the
mtns west of the divide. Temps will rmain well above normal
across nern CO with readings in the 60s.

For Sat a stg upper level low trough will dvlp over srn CA with the
flow aloft becoming more ssw.  Once again there is some moisture
embedded in the flow however with wrm mid lvl temps and dry lower
levels will only mention some lower pops in the mtns mainly west of
the divide. Over nern CO sfc low pres will continue. Not sure why
models are showing cooler temps unless its due to considerable
mid lvl cloud cover. At any rate readings will still be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

By Sat night into Sun the upper level trough over the swrn US is
fcst to eject rapidly northeast and move across the area by Sun
aftn.  As this feature moves across it will bring a better chc of
snow showers to the mtns with a chc of showers across the rest of
the area.  Temps will remain mild at lower elevations so expect pcpn
will fall as rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1046 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions will continue and winds also appear to be a much
less impact than over the past week. Expect winds to pick up out
of the NNE all 3 TAFs sites within the next 30-90 minutes and
continue through the evening in the 10-15 kt range. Winds should
weaken by 04Z and transition to more SW. Not expecting drainage
winds as the TAF sites overnight with a surface high pressure
across south-central Wyoming extending south to the Palmer Divide.
Instead believe that light SW winds should start after 11Z,
transitioning to light and northerly around late morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schlatter
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Schlatter



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