Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 171723
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1123 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT NOW IN PLACE ON BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MEAN LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FLUSH OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING THE PLAINS. LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT... I.E. T-STORMS TODAY. LOW POPS LOOK GOOD...BUT STILL
LOWERED CHANCES A TAD MORE ESPLY ON THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE REST OF
FCST REMAINS THE SAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME. AS IT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...AIR WILL
BE DRYING AND DESCENDING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKER WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
VERY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BE THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE STATE HAS CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST LOWER AIRMASS
TO COOL RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING...LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING. WILL SEE SOME
SUN THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S
AND PERHAPS LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON FRI AND THEN BECOME MORE WLY ON
SAT. OVERALL MOISTURE BOTH DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED HOWEVER
THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT AFTN/EARLY
EVENING TSTMS. THE GFS DOES SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN
CO ON SAT SO IF THIS FEATURE IS REAL THEN COULD SEE SOME INCREASE
IN OVERALL COVERAGE HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE. AS FOR TEMPS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 5 TO 6
DEGREES C ON FRI AND THEN ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREES C ON SAT. THUS
WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RISING BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BY SAT OVER NERN CO.

FOR SUN INTO MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO COLORADO. OVERALL THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD TO WDLY SCT AFTN TSTMS ON
SUN. BY MON THE MID LVLS BEGIN TO WRM AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO
DECREASE SO ACTIVITY MAY BE ISOLD AT BEST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S OVER NERN CO BOTH DAYS.

BY TUE AND WED A STG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER
COLORADO WITH WK FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THUS WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW POPS WITH MOST ACTIVITY CONFINED TO MTN AREAS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS DOWN FROM WY. VERY LOW CHANCE OF T-STORMS TODAY. VARIABLE
WINDS ARE FCST TO BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY AFTER 18Z...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BY AROUND SUNSET AT 6-10KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS TODAY IS LOW...AND STORMS WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVERALL LESS THAN ONE-TENTH INCH. CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING
VERY LOW TODAY. SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH ANY STORMS
ENDING BY 8 PM MDT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BAKER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER



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