Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 152119
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
219 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

THE SNOW OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALMOST ENDED...BUT THE STRONG NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS DUE WESTERLY TONIGHT...THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...THE STRONG WINDS OVER
THE PLAINS WILL RELAX WITH TONIGHT`S WIND FIELDS ADHERING TO
DIURNAL PATTERNS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO HAVE SOUTHEASTERLIES ON
TUESDAY WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
FOR MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW IT TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. SATELLITE PICTURES CONFIRM THIS. ON TUESDAY...THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
...AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FOR THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
SOME OROGRAPHICS TO WARRANT "CHANCE" POPS OF SNOW THERE. THERE IS
EVEN SOME MINOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE QPF FIELDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. NONE FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THEN SOME AS MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD BE
FAIRLY COLD OUT ON THE PLAINS WHERE THE SNOW FIELD IS IN PLACE
AFTER THE WINDS SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD...

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO COLORADO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DECENT OROGRAPHIC SW FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COMBINING WITH MORE DECENT QG ASCENT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY
STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME SURFACE RIDGING SO WILL KEEP
POPS LOW.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STRONG NW FLOW DOMINATES WITH RIDGING
MOVING IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGING WILL BRING SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND SOME MINOR CLEARING OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
THE RIDGING IS SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE NW
AND MAKES IT WAY INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE MODELS START DIVERGING AT THIS POINT ON THE INTENSITY
AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY BUT KEPT LOW POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH NW FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

THE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DID FINALLY MAKE INTO DIA.
THEY HAVE A BIT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM DUE TO THE
LONGMONT ANTI-CYCLONE WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THEY SHOULD
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND WILL END UP WITH SOME
SORT OF DRAINAGE DIRECTION. MAYBE ALTERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE NORM
DUE TO THE SNOW FIELD IN PLACE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE METRO
AREA. CEILINGS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RJK



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