Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 232038
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
238 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF COLORADO WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEST
INSTBY AND QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THIS
EVENING THEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS FM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I70 WITH AN EMBEDDED TSTM OR TWO POSSIBLE.
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
MAY OCCUR WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. NO HIGHLIGHTS REGARDING THE
WIND AS THE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ALTHOUGH
SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN 15Z TO 21Z TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SNOW
COVERAGE DECREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/STABILITY AND DECREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. QG LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTING SO
ONLY EXPECT A FEW INCHES...FAVORED AREAS MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE.
CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY MAKING IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN UPSLOPE IS THE DEEPEST. THIS WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH THE FAVORABLE PART OF THE JET BEING OVER THE AREA.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT NUDGE THEM UP OVER
THE UPSLOPE AREAS. IT WILL BE COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LIKELY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW WITH THE SHOWERS DOWN TO 5000 FEET.

EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. A
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY. A WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN WITH
THE SHOWERS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE 70S.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY UNDER CUT THE RIDGE.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE RIDGE ENDED UP WINNING AND WE WOULD
STAY WARM AND DRY. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE LOW POPS JUST IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH TROUGH KDEN AT TIME TIME WITH WEAKER NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 7-10KTS...THIS FEATURE COULD STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AIRPORT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY TRANSITION TO
WSWLY FOR A TIME LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
FROPA NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 14Z TUESDAY MORNING.
STRONGER GUSTS 35-40KTS POSSIBLE FM 15Z-21Z TUESDAY.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR
COZ215..216 AND 238>251.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER


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