Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 200311
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
911 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

ONE MORE ORGANIZED BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE DENVER AREA
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO RAISED POPS FOR THIS AREA. ALSO
SLOWED THE CLEARING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A LITTLE BIT.
REST OF FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH CLOUD DECK HAS THINNED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION FILLING
IN BEHIND IT. MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS ORGANIZING AS EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF I-70 AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT THEY WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IS EVEN MORE
STABLE SO HAVE FURTHER REDUCED/REMOVED POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE PASSING TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH
IS VERY WEAK TONIGHT...SO EXPECT MOST OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...WE WILL START OFF WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WARM FROM TODAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL
BE REACHED BY MID DAY. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MOST NUMEROUS
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA. A DECENT UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS GENERATE A TOUCH OF QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND KEPT SOME LOW SHOWERY-TYPE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO
COVER THAT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLIES OVERSPREADING THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
DROPPING A BIT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS COLORADO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT QG LIFT IS RATHER UNORGRANIZED
AND MOISTURE IS SPARSE. ADDITIONALLY...DECENT CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST ALL POINT TO WIND BEING THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE. THESE WINDS COULD CREATE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT
TIMES MIDWEEK. MOREOVER THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY. ONCE THIS
TROUGH PASSES BY WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE DENVER AREA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.
CEILINGS MAY REQUIRE INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN THROUGH THIS
TIME...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. HIGHER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE OR NO IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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