Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 101604
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1004 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Freeze Warning that was in effect has been allowed to expire. No
other changes are planned for the morning package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Skies across north central and northeast Colorado have cleared out
as yesterday`s storm system moved out onto the Great Plains.
Temperatures have also cooled to the mid and upper 20s due to
radiational effects. Have been waiting for areas of fog to develop
due to the high boundary layer humidities from yesterday`s
precipitation. Up to this point, have only seen low clouds develop
in the Gunnison Valley in southwestern Colorado and at Kremmling,
in western Grand County. May still see fog develop over the next
few hours, primarily near and along the South Platte River from
north of Denver up to Greeley and then eastward to Fort Morgan and
Sterling. If the fog develops, it could be quite thick, but will
be limited in areal extent. No need to issue any highlights for
fog until we see evidence that it is going to develop. The latest
HRRR models show just a few pockets of restricted visibility in
Weld County. With temperatures still below freezing across the
forecast area, will let the Freeze Warning remain in effect
through its expiration at 10 AM.

The rest of today and tonight is going to be sunny and warmer as
high pressure at the surface and aloft produce generally light
winds and subsident warming across the state. Afternoon highs
should be in the mid 50s, but could go even warmer, based on the
latest MOS guidance values. Mostly clear skies will continue
overnight with temperatures staying remaining warmer than this
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Mainly dry SW flow aloft will be over the area Wed thru Fri.
Outside of some higher level clouds no pcpn is expected.  As for
temps,  readings will rise back to seasonal levels on Wed. By Thu
highs will rise into the lower to mid 70s across nern CO. On Fri
a weak fnt will affect the plains with temps dropping back into
the 60s.

For Sat an upper level trough will move quickly across the area. The
ECMWF is a bit slower and wetter with this feature while the GFS is
faster and drier.  For now will mention a slight chc of pcpn across
the area mainly Sat night. Another fnt will accompany the trough
by aftn so highs will be 5 to 7 degrees blo normal across nern CO.
By Sun dry dry WNW flow aloft will be in place with no pcpn
expected along with temps similar to Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 953 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Typical diurnal
wind pattern today.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sullivan/Cooper
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Sullivan/Cooper



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