Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161751
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1151 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Forecasts updated for a little more wind and cloud cover. Quite a
bit of cirrus, but mostly thin so not much more impact on
temperatures than already factored in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

WNW flow aloft will remain across the area with only some higher lvl
moisture embedded in the flow.  Thus it will continue dry with abv
normal temps.  850-700 mb temps rise a few more degrees this aftn so
highs will be in the lower to mid 90s across the plains.  For
tonight the flow aloft will strengthen, and with the potential for a
mtn wave, gusty winds may dvlp overnight in the foothills. Gusts
ranging from 50 to 60 mph may occur after midnight in the normal
windy areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A dip in the fairly strong zonal flow aloft over the northern
tier states sends a cold front southward through Wyoming and down
across eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon. Accompanying this
frontal boundary is a band of mid-level moisture which models show
lagging the wind shift and cooler air by a couple of hours.
Models indicate an increase in mean layer precipitable water to
around an inch as the post-frontal northeasterly flow deepens.
Even as low-level moisture increases, afternoon CAPEs on the
plains appear low, with the bulk of the instability confined to
the higher terrain of the Palmer Divide and Front Range foothills.
Farther out onto the northeast plains of CO, the influx of cooler
air should limit or even prevent t-storm formation. Models show
CIN out there taking nearly all afternoon to erode. For now, will
keep a slight chance of t-storms on the plains but any QPF should
be light and spotty. Over and near in the higher terrain will go
with isolated to scattered shower/t-storm coverage late afternoon
and early evening, aided by the moist upslope flow. Highs on the
plains Saturday expected to be about 5 deg f lower than the day
before.

Sunday should be drier and cooler with northwest flow aloft. May
still see a stray t-storm or two in the Park County area late in
the day with a gradually shift to a sely low-level flow.
Temperatures on Sunday will cool another 6-9 degs f with lower
elevations feeling most of this cooling.

Rest of the week...a flat upper ridge over the Great Basin slowly
migrates towards Colorado. As it does, should see temperatures
climb and humidities fall. Should see above average sfc temperatures
on Monday and much above average temperatures Tuesday-Thursday
with highs in the 90s on the plains. Precip chances this week
look to be near zero, although would not rule out a gusty low
precip t-storm or two late each day over the Front Range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

VFR through tonight. Updated forecast for a bit more wind. The
winds at KDEN should go a bit more northwesterly by 21z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Fire danger will be elevated fm the Foothills across the Plains
by afternoon as humidity levels drop down to 15%. Northwest winds
will be in the 15 to 25 mph range in the nrn Foothills and closer
to the Wyoming border across the plains.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Gimmestad
FIRE WEATHER...RPK



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