Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 151028
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF US TODAY WITH THE WARMEST AIR OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKING GOOD
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. MOS IS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
THE WARM AIR OFF THE GROUND...BUT WITH A COLD START DO NOT EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL TO BE REALIZED TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS A
50 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND 40 DEGREES IN
DENVER...THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH. STILL GOING FOR A RECORD OF 83 IN
DENVER VERSUS THE OLD RECORD OF 82 IN 2011.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON THE
PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME WIND AT THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON. BY PEAK MIXING THE PLAINS GRADIENT SHOULD BE SHIFTING
EASTWARD WITH SOME KIND OF LEE TROUGH/DENVER CYCLONE COMBINATION
NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. TODAY IS A CANDIDATE FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING...BUT THE WORST AREAS OF ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTY WERE
IN THE HEAVY RAIN BAND LAST THURSDAY AND GOT 2 INCHES OF RAIN...
WITH A LITTLE MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY. FUELS SHOULD BE DRIER IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER BUT EXPECT THE WINDS THERE WILL BE A BIT LESS AND
WILL LIKELY DECREASE A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WARM AND DRY ENOUGH IN THE VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS BUT FUEL MOISTURE IS
NOT THAT LOW...FIRE DANGER IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MODERATE TO
HIGH.

EXPECT A BRIEF BOUT OF MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INVERSION AND LOW SHEAR FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL GO AWAY. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
QUICK SHOT OF HIGH WINDS...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST SOME DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. IN THE GRIDS I HAVE GUSTS TO ABOUT 60 MPH JUST
EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO
NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z. SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS EARLY...THEN DECREASING. IF ANY DECENT WINDS DO OCCUR IN
THE MORNING...IT WILL BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. IN ADDITION...IT WL BE
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL CO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS OVER
CO FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER BAJA ON SUNDAY
THEN MEANDERS EASTWARD...BUT THE FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BE DRY...STABLE AND SEASONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. S/W DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BECOME A
LIGHTER EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VARIABILITY..THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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