Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 231602 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1002 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. 12Z DENVER SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STABLE
AIRMASS WITH SHARP INVERSION NEAR 700 MB. THERE WAS SOME MORNING
STRATUS TRAPPED IN PARK COUNTY BUT THAT IS QUICKLY BURNING OFF.
ELEVATED TERRAIN AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE THERE MAY ALLOW FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM BUT AT THIS TIME THINKING ANY CONVECTION WOULD
HOLD SOUTH OF OUR CWA. SOME SMOKE BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED FROM THOSE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH RESULTANT MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER COLORADO. NORTHERN COLORADO WILL REMAIN IN A DRY AND
POST FRONTAL STABLE AIRMASS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA...MAINLY PARK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS STILL A FLUX OF MOISTURE UNDER A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH WHICH MAY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO.

STILL COULD BE SOME SMOKE WITH THIS REGIME BUT APPEARS LESS THAT
THERE WAS WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. WILL STILL KEEP AREAS OF
SMOKE TODAY IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
COLORADO EARLY ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH THE
RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY TUESDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW THE
500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND BY THAT EVENING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WEST OF THE AXIS APPEARS TO USHER IN
SUFFICIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH STG DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SEE DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ON
TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY T-STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MODELS SHOW LIFTING NEWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO
AT THAT TIME. BY NIGHTFALL...SHOULD SEE T-STORM CHANCES INCREASING
ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MEAN LAYER
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY REACH A PEAK WITH WEAK QG ASCENT GENERATED BY A
PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW DUE TO A
LACK OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND DEEP INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD SEE LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMTS PUSHING A HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH ON THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE AND
THEREFORE WILL REFRAIN FROM REDUCING CLOUD COVER MUCH ON THURSDAY
AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE MTNS
AND MOST OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. BY
LATE NIGHT SHOULD SEE FAIRLY RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVER THE
STATE AND THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO DRY AND WARM. MAY STILL SEE A
FEW HEAT DRIVEN LATE DAY T-STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. ON
SATURDAY MAY SEE A FEW MORE STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH AN
INFLUX OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

STILL SOME SMOKE IN THE AIR BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
SINCE YESTERDAY. MOST FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE
7 MILES VISIBILITY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE ILS APPROACHES DUE TO
LIMITED VISIBILITY ALOFT. WELL DEVELOPED DENVER CYCLONE WIND
PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY...SO KDEN SHOULD SEE EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
10-16 KNOTS PERSIST WHILE KBJC AND EVEN KAPA WILL REMAIN MORE
NORTHERLY. CYCLONE ATTEMPTS TO MATURE AND SPIN NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWEST OR EVEN
WESTERLY AT KDEN 00Z-06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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