Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241538
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
938 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

REGION IS MAINLY CLOUD FREE THIS MORNING. EXCEPTION IS PATCHY FOG
IN GRAND COUNTY...LOCALLY DENSE AT KREMLING. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED
TO ADD FOG TO GRIDS UNTIL LATER THIS AM. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO
BUMP AFTERNOON TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN TEMP TRENDS FROM 24
HOURS AGO. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED UNDER DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD. CONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS TODAY...AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
A MINIMUM OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AS WELL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SNEAKING OVER THE RIDGE AND DISSIPATING AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM BEING A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH EXTREMELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE BENIGN ALL FOUR PERIODS.
PRETTY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED
THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...WITH NORMAL DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED
DURING THE NIGHTS. MOISTURE IS SPARSE MUCH OF THE TIME...
INCREASING A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE 0.35 TO 0.70 INCH ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE DEW
POINT PROGS HAVE LOWER 30S F OVER THE WESTERN CWA TO THE LOWER 50S
F FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A TAD OF CAPE
BOTH LATE DAY THURSDAY AND LATE DAY FRIDAY...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
THE QPF FIELDS SHOW NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR POPS...NOTHING UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN 10-20%S IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN
TODAY`S. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. AT
00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON LATE...THERE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES MORE ON
MONDAY WITH THE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO
BY 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON LATE. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF TUESDAY WILL
SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING AND THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER 10KT. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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