Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 180249
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
849 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS ACROSS PARK
COUNTY AND THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM. HAVE
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
AIRMASS HAS DRIED AND STABILIZED. STILL MAY BE SOME STRATUS LATER
TONIGHT OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LURKING
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

LULL FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THANKS TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...
DRYING AND WARMING IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWING OUT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME. STILL ENOUGH SOLAR HEATING TO
SPARK A FEW WEAK STORM CELLS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
SOUTHERLY STORM MOTIONS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING INTEGRATED PW VALUES. SHOULD STORMS FORM...NOT MUCH ENERGY
AROUND TO SUSTAIN MUCH BEYOND 02Z THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWA WHERE
MODELS SHOW A RESURGENCE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN A
PROBABILITY ACROSS ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EARN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. OTHERWISE A
DRY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS CLOSE TO ZERO.

ON FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK PERTABATION IN THIS FLOW SLIDING
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS IT PASSES...A LEE TROUGH UP AGAINST THE
FOOTHILLS ALSO MOVES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME. THE
TWO FEATURES SHOULD PRODUCE ADEQUATE LIFT AND SHEAR TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS. STORMS LIKELY TO FORM FIRST OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 0.30 INCH AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
RELATIVELY FAST AND PREVAILING PW VALUES UNDER 0.75 INCH. ALTHOUGH
MODELS INDICATE A POCKET OF HIGHER PW VALUES UP ALONG THE WY/NE
BORDERS EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. SEE
THE DAY STARTING OUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE THEN SKIES CLOUD UP BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES REACH THE 90 DEG MARK IN MANY PARTS OF THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING AROUND
MIDNIGHT. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS. SKIES TO THEN CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO COLORADO WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE MOISTURE MAINLY
ABOVE 600 MB. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING CLIPPING THE NORTHEAST CORNER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. FOR SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. ON
MONDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING WITH THE THE
RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT. MOISTURE LIMITED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WYOMING WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT OVER COLORADO.
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

CLEAR SKIES AT LOCAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARDS DAWN BASED ON MOISTURE THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING. COULD BE
SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY
ISOLATED AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAFS.
TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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