Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 191644
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1044 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Another warm and dry day for northeast Colorado. Stronger winds
aloft are starting to mix down in places with gusts to 25 to 35
mph. Bumped up winds a little for this afternoon, otherwise no
other changes have been made to the forecast. Winds will need to
be closely monitored in the Boulder area due to the fire activity.

Models hinting at a mountain wave forming late tonight and Monday
morning. Expect this to increase the winds in the mountains and
higher foothills where gusts to 40 to 50 mph will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Some mid and high level moisture will move across the area today
thru tonight in wly flow aloft.  Outside of some wave clouds it will
remain dry.  Highs this aftn will be similar to Sat with readings in
the upper 70s to lower 80s along the front range with lower to mid
80s over the far ern plains. Record high at Denver is 81 so this
could be tied this aftn.

For tonight there will be an increase in wave clouds overnight and
with downslope flow this will lead to mild overnight lows in and nr
the foothills.  Cross-sections show winds will increase in the
foothills late tonight but speeds will stay blo highlight criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

An upper ridge with moderately strong west-southwesterly flow
aloft is progged on Monday through Tuesday night. The QG Omega
fields show weak upward vertical velocity over the forecast area
all four periods. Weak southerly and southwesterly boundary layer
winds are expected on Monday, with normal drainage patterns Monday
night in most areas except for the far northeast corner where
easterly winds are progged behind a cold front. This front makes
it into the lower foothills by midnight Tuesday with easterly
winds in the boundary layer. South to southeasterly winds are
progged for the rest of Tuesday and Tuesday night. For moisture,
it increases on Monday by afternoon. It is fairly deep Monday
evening, then decreases by 12Z Tuesday morning. Tuesday morning is
pretty dry, then moisture increases again in the afternoon into
the evening. Moisture decreases overnight Tuesday night, with
some in the mid an upper levels over the eastern half of the CWA.
The QPF fields have a tad of measurable precipitation over the
high mountains Monday afternoon. There is bit more indicated over
the mountains and east Monday night. Tuesday morning is dry, then
there is tad more indicated over the western half of the CWA
Tuesday afternoon. There is a bit, mainly over the plains, Tuesday
night. So, will go with 10-40% pops Monday afternoon and night
for the mountains and far east. Will go with 10-20% pops Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Nothing significant. For temperatures, Monday`s
highs will be similar to this afternoon`s. Tuesday`s highs are
4-9 C cooler than Monday`s but still above seasonal normals. For
the later days, Wednesday through Saturday, There is increasing
southwesterly flow aloft Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper
trough pushes across Colorado Thursday and Thursday night.
Consistency between models is fair with this system. There is
upper ridging for the CWA Friday into Saturday, then another
trough moves in next Sunday. It still looks as though much of the
CWA will get some measurable precipitation with the Thursday
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1044 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through Monday. Westerly winds are
expected to prevail through 02z with gusts to 25 knots. Slightly
stronger winds will be possible at KBJC. Winds will turn to a
south to southwest direction by 06z. For Monday westerly winds are
expected again by 18z with gusts to 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Have decided to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning for areas along and
north of a Denver to Limon line.  Winds will be marginal and barely
meet criteria however with very dry conditions will play it safe.
Winds will be a bit stronger further north near the Wyoming,
Nebraska border where fire potential will be higher.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ215-238>240-
242>245-248>251.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Meier
FIRE WEATHER...RPK


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