Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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431
FXUS65 KBOU 211632
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1032 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Tranquil late summer weather prevails punctuated by light
breezes...low humidity and clear skies. Temperatures currently in
the 70s on the plains should have little difficultly reaching the
mid and upper 80s as per currently forecast. Highs in the upper
60s and 70s across the high country also look good. Still counting
on isolated to scattered t-storms over and around South Park late
afternoon and evening due to strong heating and the orographic
forcing it produces. Gusty winds and CG lightning dominate weather
elements produced by these high based storms...but can`t rule a
brief heavy rain shower over the high terrain. Should see
initiation of convection over the high ridges within the next
hour. Do not see much in the way of cloud formation over the
plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Weak upper level ridging will occur across Colorado through
tonight. This will keep a mainly dry airmass in place across the
forecast area. Only exception to this would be in the mountains
roughly south of I-70 on the fringe of the better mid/upper level
moisture. Will carry isolated to low scattered PoPs there, with a
small threat of storms stretching onto the Palmer Divide toward
evening. Temperatures will warm about 5-6C aloft, resulting in
highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90F over most of the plains,
with upper 60s/70s mountains. Lows tonight will settle into the
50s to near 60F on the plains, with 30s and 40s in the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Weak west-southwesterly flow aloft will dominate Monday through
Tuesday night. The models now have the upper trough coming through
the CWA on Wednesday, and it is weaker than yesterday`s 00z runs.
Weak upward vertical motion is progged on the QG Omega fields
Monday through Tuesday night. Normal diurnal patterns should
prevail for the boundary layer winds Monday into Monday night. The
various models have downsloping on Tuesday morning, then a front,
or not by afternoon, depending on the model. All the models now
have upslope and a surge on Wednesday. There is plenty of mid and
upper level moisture all four periods. The precipitable water
fields show values of 0.50 to 0.75 inch Monday through Tuesday
night. For CAPE, there is some over the mountians and eastern
border late day Monday. It is located in similar areas on
Tuesday, but there is less. CAPE is not significant either day.
The QPF fields have limited measurable rainfall, mainly over the
western CWA Monday and Tuesday. For pops will go with 20-50%s in
the mountains and 10-20%s over the plains both late day Monday
and Tuesday. For temperatures, Monday`s highs will be 0-2 C warmer
than today`s highs. Tuesay`s highs will be 1-4 C cooler than
Monday`s. For the later days, Wednesday through Saturday, models
have a weak upper trough to eastward across the CWA on Wednesday.
After that, west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails through
Saturday. Moisture is not bad, so there will be some pops, higher
in the mountains and foothills. There should be no 90s for high
temperatures during the four days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Tranquil weather conditions expected over the Denver area next 24
hours. Light breezes and clear to mostly clear skies anticipated.
Winds variable under 8 kts next few hours...then east-southeast in
direction at 6-11 kts after around 20z. After 00z...should see
winds gradually turn southerly/drainage at 4-10 kts.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Baker
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Baker



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