Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 201706
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1006 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

LAST OF THE PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTHERN DENVER SUBURBS IS
FINALLY LIFTING AND ERODING FROM THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL AS THE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE. ONE AREA THAT MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS LINGER HOWEVER IS
OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED THERE IN
LIGHT FLOW. BY LATE IN THE DAY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE AGAIN AS MOISTURE INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND WETTER WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT Q-G
LIFT NOTED. IN ADDITION...WINDS TURN INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
DEEPENS TO AROUND 12 THOUSAND FEET. THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT
PLAINS INCLUDING THE DENVER METRO AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY AND MENTIONED SOME
ACCUMULATION. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC SO ANY
OROGRAPHIC/Q-G SUPPORT WOULD ACT EFFICIENTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A FEW MORE SPOTS THIS MORNING AS SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEARED IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS. THICKNESS WILL BE
DECREASING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS DAYTIME BEGINS.
HOWEVER...STRATUS IS A BIT THICKER TO THE EAST SO IT COULD HOLD
FROM EASTERN SECTIONS OF DENVER INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
AROUND LIMON TIL AROUND 10 TO 11 AM BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

SOME FOG DEVELOPING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND SO HAVE
UPDATED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FREEZING FOG UNTIL 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

PEAK OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING WILL BE EXITING THE DENVER AREA BY
11Z...THE BANDED SNOW WAS HEAVY BUT VERY BRIEF. ACCUMULATIONS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF DENVER LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. THE
MDLS SHOW WEAK QG ASCENT DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. WL KEEP CHC
POPS EAST OF DENVER IN THE 12-15Z WINDOW WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...GENERALLY PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER A PERIOD OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH WITH WEAK NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE DEVELOPING.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WL SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z AS WEAK QG ASCENT STARTS TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WHILE A SECOND TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO WILL MERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE HIGH OVER WYOMING WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH NEAR PALMER DIVIDE AND
OVER PARK COUNTY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
COOL CONDITIONS. ANY SNOW OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE/PARK COUNTY AND TO THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND TO THE 40S OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO...BUT DUE TO
POOR MIXING...SNOW COVERED AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 30S.

A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. JUST A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW UNDER THIS PATTERN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOW THE MAIN TROUGH STAYING EAST OF COLORADO...THOUGH THE
JET WILL GRAZE EASTERN COLORADO. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS AND WILL
MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
AND STARTING A WARMING TREND FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN PREVAILING THROUGH EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE 10Z-12Z TIME RANGE...PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER AT
KAPA. LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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