Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 122218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
318 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2014

DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD ALSO HOLD ON THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. FLOW
ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH MAKES ITS SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NONE OF THE CLOUDINESS HAS NOT MADE IT TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR YET.

THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH AN INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. ANY COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY EVENING.

THE ONE AREA OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL BE AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER WESTERN KANSAS THE PAST
FEW DAYS MAKES SOME WESTWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2014

MODELS HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT 18Z SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER CLOSED
CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF COLORADO WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE WESTERN CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THROUGH COLORADO BY 06Z
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODERATELY STRONG
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED ON MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED
FOR THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THERE IS
DOWNWARD MOTION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE A LOW LEVEL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
12Z SUNDAY MORNING IT IS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
COLORADO. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE DUE NORTHERLY
BY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE A BIT WEST OF DUE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY. WIND
PATTERNS GET BACK TO NORMAL BY MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT
GETS FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING. THE PLAINS ARE
PRETTY DRY UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE OVER
ALL THE CWA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MOISTURE DECREASES LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM DRIES THINGS OUT QUICKER
THAN THE GFS. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOW WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW ON ALL THE
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH "LIKELY"S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND ADJACENT PLAINS. WILL GO WITH ALL SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE PLAINS.  WILL DECREASE THINGS
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK LIKE EVEN ADVISORY AMOUNTS ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA. THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS NOT SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE 4-10 C COLDER THAN SATURDAY`S.
MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1.5 C COLDER THAN SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
NEXT TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND EASTERLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN TRANSITION TO
TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AGAIN THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY...BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL SEE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ANY FURTHER WEST
THAN AKRON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...DANKERS


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