Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 231611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

A STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED IN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE DUE TO THE
FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LINGERING FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE FORMATION
OF A WAVE CLOUD INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A CONTINUED WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY FOR NE
COLORADO WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING CLOSE TO 80 IN DENVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AND DRY IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THU AND FRI ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CIRRUS WAVE CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIPITATION. LEE TROFING AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW SOME OF
THE MID LEVEL WESTERLIES TO MIX DOWN INTO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
LATE THU FOR SOME MODERATE GUSTS EXCEEDING 20KT... BUT THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT FAVOR MIXING OF THE
WESTERLIES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DEEPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST CREATED A
RECIPROCATING LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY
MTN WEST BY FRIDAY. BENEATH THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECT ANOMOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STORM TRACK/JET STREAM RESIDING UP NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPS AT MANY LOCALES ON FRIDAY...THE 25TH COULD
EASILY MATCH IF NOT EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. RECORD HIGH
AT DENVER ON THE 25TH IS 80. MAY SURPASS THAT BE A FEW DEGREES
F...ASSUMING THE MORNING MTN WAVE CLOUD DOESN/T HANG AROUND TOO
LONG. ALSO COMPARE THAT TO A NORMAL HIGH OF 62F. IT/S GOING TO
FEEL LIKE LATE SUMMER AROUND HERE. IF THAT/S NOT ENOUGH...MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS MAY ALSO COME VERY CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR THE DATE.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS TO EQUAL OR EXCEED THE
RECORD HIGH FOR THE 26TH. RECORD AT DENVER IS 80. MAY BEAT THAT BY
A DEG OR TWO. AS THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS...SFC WINDS
MAINLY ON THE PLAINS REMAIN LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. PRECIP STILL WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT RANGE AT
THAT TIME.

SUNDAY STARTS OUT BALMY...ESLY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE/DOWN VALLEY WINDS. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KTS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AT 12Z. DURING THE DAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE COMES ITS EASTWARD MIGRATION AS A CHILLY AND WET UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ACCORDING TO
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WARM AND GUSTY
SWLY SFC WINDS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS NEARING THE RECORD AGAIN AT MANY LOCATIONS SUCH AS DENVER.
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE THE RECORD HIGH OF 83F AT DENVER IN DANGER ON
SUNDAY. BY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN MTNS COULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE
IMPACT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL
WITH THE FIRST OF TWO STAND-UP FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING ACRS THE
HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ANY RAIN TO SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET OR
SO.

ON MONDAY...A SECOND PUSH OF EVEN COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS THE
NERN PLAINS OF COLORADO EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB MUCH ABOVE MID-MORNING READINGS. ALSO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
RISING WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATES. BY LATE IN THE DAY...COULD SEE ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE
FLOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE GIVING THIS AREA A SECOND SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIP...
ALBEIT LIGHT. AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...PRECIP WILL BE SNOW ABOVE
8500-9000FT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND BELOW THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST BUT THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARM UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH JUST A LIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE NRN MTNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 958 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS BEING VARIABLE FOR MOST OF
THE MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT WITH DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...KELSCH/MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN



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