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000
FXUS65 KBOU 041643
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
943 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SNOW COMING TO AN END FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. UPSTREAM THERE IS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT SNOW. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HELP
TO KEEP SOME CONVECTIVE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
GRASSY AREAS AND LESS THAN AN INCH. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW IS GRADUALLY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD AND FADING ABOUT AS EXPECTED.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW
FROM DENVER NORTH TO FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY...BUT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE LIFTING...SO THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH
ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE IT ENDS. THERE IS
STILL SOME LIFT AS EVIDENCED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM...AND
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE COLD BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY SO WE WILL HANG ON TO SOME LOW POPS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS A BIT LONGER...AGAIN AMOUNTS FROM ANY OF THIS
SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ON THE PLAINS. A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR AN EVENING LOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS WITH SOME MIXING AND THE WARMING. SHELTERED SPOTS
LIKE THE VALLEYS NORTH OF DENVER COULD STAY COLD AND HAVE SOME
PATCHY FOG...LOW ENOUGH THREAT TO KEEP OUT AT THIS POINT THOUGH AS
MODELS EVEN BRING SOME MIXING INTO THOSE PLACES.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT LOOK FINE...IN LINE WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH ARE A BIT COLDER THAN THE NAM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
COLORADO WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE FLOW WILL
START TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. AND THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RECOVER WITH SOME LIMITATION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY. A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK EASTWARD BUT IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON THE CWA. SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT
OVER WYOMING MAY SLIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER BUT NO POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO FLUCTUATE A
BIT. NEITHER MDLS GENERATES ANY QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE FLOW
ALOFT MORE WESTERLY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY. OVERALL...WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 929 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW IS COMING TO AN END WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH
LOCALIZED MFR POSSIBLE IN SURROUNDING AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH 02Z BEFORE DRAINAGE RETURNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN