Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 281028
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
428 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 428 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

High amplitude upper level ridge will remain centered across the
forecast area today, and then begin to shift slowly east tonight.
This will keep dry weather in place. Clear skies this morning
should give way to a few clouds later this afternoon into the
evening but most of those would be in/near the mountains. Some
models are even suggesting enough moisture and instability for a
few afternoon/evening storms over the mountains but with upper
level ridge and the lack of moisture see nothing more than a few
high based sprinkles possible in the Summit county area.
Temperatures should be similar to those observed yesterday,
although some cooling should be noted on the eastern plains with a
weak backdoor cold front.

Dry high pressure will allow temperatures to drop to near or just
above normal for lows tonight. Expect just a few mid/upper level
clouds to remain in place as light southwest flow develops on the
back side of the ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 428 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The weakening upper level ridge over eastern Colorado will deliver
one more warm day on Thursday. The plains will be dry, but the
mountains will be under moist southwesterly flow that will bring
sub-tropical moisture to the western half of the state. Isolated
showers or thunderstorms will be the result. High temperatures
across the plains should reach the lower and mid 80s.

Sub-tropical moisture will continue moving over the state from the
southwest through Friday and Saturday as the upper ridge loses its
grasp on Colorado weather and moves off to the east. The southwest
flow aloft will continue producing the chance of showers in the
mountains through Friday and into Saturday. Some showers may
spread onto the plains Friday evening.

Over the weekend, temperatures will be gradually cooling as the
upper level pattern transitions to an upper trough approaching
from the Pacific Northwest. By the middle of next week,
temperatures will be cool enough in the mountains for
precipitation to fall in the form of snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 428 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR conditions will remain in place through Thursday morning with
only few-sct clouds above 12000 feet.  Light west/southwest winds
early this morning will transition to more east/northeast toward
18Z. Winds expected to gradually increase to around 10-12 knots by
22Z-00Z with a few gusts to 18-20 knots possible at KDEN as
surface pressure gradient strengthens. That gradient should also
result in a slower transition to the normal south/southwest
drainage winds tonight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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