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000
FXUS65 KBOU 040227
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
727 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WERE WSW BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE SSW IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014/

SHORT TERM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER COLORADO THIS EVENING.
WARM AND FAIRLY MOIST PACIFIC AIR SPREADING OVER THE PLAINS AS THE
ARCTIC AIR HAS BEEN PUSHED OUT. DEW POINTS WERE INITIALLY HIGHER
IN THE WARMER AIR...BUT ARE DROPPING WITH BETTER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND THESE SHOULD DECREASE WITH COOLING THIS EVENING
BUT THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A LITTLE. BREEZES THAT HAVE MIXED
TO THE SURFACE SHOULD DECREASE AS WELL.

MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST
NEUTRAL AIRMASS AND THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...I INCREASED
MOUNTAIN POPS A BIT IN THE MORNING...AND ADDED SOME ON THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GREELEY AND FORT COLLINS.
COOLING WILL BE HAPPENING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT MOST OR
ALL OF THE PLAINS PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE RAIN.
COULD BE MORE WIND WITH THE FRONT THAN WE ARE SHOWING...BUT THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS NOT AS HUGE AS WITH OUR OTHER FRONTS
RECENTLY AND THIS IS REALLY A PRETTY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM...IT IS
ALL HAPPENING IN THE PACIFIC AIR. ALL IN ALL LOOKING A BIT MORE
LIKE SPRING.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE FIRST OF TWO WEATHER
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...WIND AND INSTABILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE FAST-MOVING...SO EVEN IF THERE ARE BRIEF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...IT SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE FOR 8 TO 12 HOURS.
WILL STICK WITH 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW. ON THE PLAINS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF WYOMING BY TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT WITHOUT TOO MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.
ALOFT...THE SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN ORGANIZATIONAL DYNAMICS
WITHOUT A STRONG JET STREAM OVERHEAD. STILL...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHETHER THE WYOMING BORDER OR THE PALMER
DIVIDE BECOMES THE PREFERRED AREA FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL
BLANKET THE PLAINS WITH 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITHOUT
STRONG COOLING FROM THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS RAIN
AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BY MID-EVENING. AFTER 6 TO 10 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT OF
THE STATE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

DRYING AND WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THE
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE STATE FRIDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DIGGING
TROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONGER...MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY...BUT THEN SUNDAY WILL SEE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...VFR IN THE DENVER AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. CHANCE OF
CEILINGS LOWERING ENOUGH TO REQUIRE INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN
AFTER 20Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER
22Z...BUT LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK