Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KBOU 280453
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1053 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LAST LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE LATE
THIS EVENING...BUT GRADUALLY BREAKING APART. THIS CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AS SOME
PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED BEHIND IT. OVERALL JUST DELAYED THE
CLEARING A BIT AND EARLIER EXTENDED SOME LOW POPS ONTO THE PLAINS.
BULK OF IT SHOULD BE OVER TOWARD 1 AM AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...DRYING
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SPARSE RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE IS A BIT OF LIGHTNING...BUT THE CELLS ARE PRETTY WEAK. MORE
OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET...THEN EVERYTHING WILL
CEASE. MODELS KEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS WEAK
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED AS WELL FOR THE CWA BOTH
PERIODS. MODELS KEEP THE BOUNDARY WINDS A COMBINATION OF
DOWNSLOPING AND NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLIES ON FRIDAY. AFTER THIS EVENING MOISTURE DISAPPEARS
AFTER SUNSET...MODELS HAVE A DECREASE IN THE MOISTURE. THERE IS
LESS ON FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF
FIELDS THIS EVENING...THEN ONLY A TAD FOR THE HIGH COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL USE CURRENT REALITY FOR THIS EVENING`S POPS...THEN
ONLY 10-20%S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 1-2 C WARMER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON`S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

ON SUNDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER COLORADO BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO COLORADO
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AND THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

GFS SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK ARE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH
VERY LITTLE CAPE AND SOME CIN. HOWEVER...SOME LATE DAY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH PW`S AROUND AN
INCH...CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE ONLY 10-20 PERCENT. STILL A LOW
THREAT OF A PASSING SHOWER NEAR A FRONT RANGE AIRPORT TIL AROUND
07Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH NORMAL AND LIGHT
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.