Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 170340
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
940 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2016

The focus for thunderstorms this evening has shifted east of the
Urban Corridor...so will keep the mention of thunderstorms across
the Northeast Plains with just some lingering rain showers
elsewhere this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2016

Isolated thunderstorms have formed across Douglas and Elbert
Counties and have initiated two outflow boundaries that are moving
to the north and northwest. Convection in the mountains and over
the northeast Colorado Plains will be isolated the remainder of
the afternoon. Storms that form will have brief heavy rain, gusty
winds in the 30 mph range and cloud-to-ground lightning.

Later this evening the storms will weaken with the loss of
daytime heating. Overnight the surface influence from convection
will diminish and the surface winds will be light across central
and eastern Colorado by Wednesday morning. Initially mostly cloudy
skies will become mostly clear by sunrise. During the day
Wednesday the upper level ridging and weak mid- and upper-level
flow from west to east will continue as it has the past several
days. Low- and mid-level moisture will be similar to Tuesday but
instability under the influence of the upper level ridge will be
limited east of the mountains. Isolated convection is expected to
be mainly in to the mountains with a low chance of any storms
impacting the urban corridor during the afternoon and evening
hours. Rainfall amounts from any isolated thunderstorms will be
light and any storm that forms has the potential for lightning and
gusty winds given the thermodynamic profile across the Plains of
Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2016

Weak westerly flow aloft will prevail over the area Wednesday
night and Thursday. Precipitable water values will range from
three- quarters of an inch to one inch. Expect isolated/scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. Limited shear and
instability should keep the storms on the weak side. Brief heavy
rain and outflow winds to 40 mph will be the main threats with the
storms.

A cold front will drop south across the area Thursday night. This
will bring cooler temperatures and increase moisture for Friday.
Increasing westerly flow aloft ahead of a trough over the Northern
Rockies will help with the shear. The cooler temperatures may
limit and/or cap thunderstorm development. However, we could see a
few severe storms if the cap is broken.

Another cold front will push across the area ahead of the upper
level trough approaching Colorado. The trough, in some form will
move across the state Saturday. Cloud cover along with the cooler
airmass will result in cool temperatures with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Highs may end up even cooler if rain sets in
for the day. A period or two of rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected sometime late Friday through Saturday
night. The details of this system still need to be resolved. Will
increase the pops to reflect the better chance for precipitation
for this event.

Northwest flow behind the trough will keep cooler temperatures
over Colorado Sunday. Still a chance for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms, though the airmass will be drying.

For early next week, seasonal temperatures will return as a ridge
builds over the Central Rockies. There looks to be enough moisture
for the normal isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 932 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2016

VFR cigs/vsbys over the next 24 hrs.  West/southwesterly winds
this evening should transition to southwest/southerly overnight.
some light rain showers around the metro area will diminish over
the next one to two hours with gradual clearing overnight.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Schlatter
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Cooper



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