467
FXUS65 KBOU 092329
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
529 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, with
  near critical fire danger in South Park.

- Scattered late day showers and thunderstorms from Thursday
  onward; likely coverage in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Radar and satellite pictures are showing limited convection
developing over the northern border plains and southeastern plains
of the CWA currently. For this afternoon and evening, convection
will be minimal, 10-20%s over the plains. However, even weak
showers of virga could produce significant downdraft outflow
winds.

Models have the upper ridge center push westward overnight tonight
and on Thursday with the ridge flattening.  A weak upper trough
moves across the CWA on Thursday.  It will usher in a cooler airmass
with some increased moisture and limited upward synoptic scale
energy. Will keep the going 30-60% pops in. Strong outflow winds
can again be expected.

Concerning the Fire Weather Watch in South Park for Thursday,
conditions remain marginal at this time for a Red Flag Warning so
will leave the watch going for now.

There will be weak northwesterly flow aloft Thursday night into
Friday, then more weak upper troughing late Friday night/Saturday
morning.  CAPE is fairly decent both late day Friday and Saturday
with precipitable water values over 1.00 inch for most of the plains
both days. Heavier rainfall amounts are possible with the 30-70%
pops.

Look at the later days, Sunday through Wednesday, the upper ridge
moves back into Colorado Sunday and Monday, but it`s center stays
southwest of the state. There is more upper troughing, mostly north
of us, on Tuesday and Wednesday, but just enough to bring cooler air
to the CWA both days. For pops, Sunday is the driest day, with
limited convection relegated to just the mountains. Late day
convection and precipitation chances increase Monday through
Wednesday; out on the plains as well, with Wednesday having the
highs pops. Denver could see two days with 90 degree or plus
temperatures both Sunday and Monday, but Tuesday and Wednesdsay`s
highs will cool to below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 521 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Winds were generally light and variable but will trend to SSW
by 01z or 02z. Overnight, there will be a chc (30%) of high based
showers moving across between 10z and 13z with brief gusty winds
up to 30 mph possible. After these showers move out, sct tstms
will be possible (50% chc) between 18z and 21z which may produce
brief wind gusts from 45 to 55 mph as they move across. Winds will
be north or NNE by 15z and then more NE by 21z as storms exit the
area.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ214.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ038>040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...rjk
AVIATION...RPK