Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 191602
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1002 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURGE OF COOLER BUT MORE MOIST AIR
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS MORNING. THAT
ORIGINATED FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE DAKOTAS LAST NIGHT.
WHILE THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS SLIGHTLY COOLER
TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS TEMPS
ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM. THAT MAY EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY STORMS FIRING ON THE PLAINS WOULD BE
TOWARD ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ON THE EDGE OF BETTER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...NORTH OF I-70...AIRMASS IS DRIER AND
MORE STABLE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX.
CHANCE OF ANY STORMS THERE IS QUITE SLIM. OVERALL...ONLY MINOR
UPDATES FOR WIND/TD FROM EASTERN PLAINS SURGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER COLORADO.
THE RIDGE HAS SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WILL BRING
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WITH IT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WILL BE A HALF INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. CAPES WILL BE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG. DECIDED TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF STORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-25/NORTH OF I-70. THINKING AIRMASS WILL BE TOO
DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD 60 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OVER AND NEAR THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. PLAN ON KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST EAST OF A LINE FROM STERLING TO LIMON. CAN`T RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER...OVER PHILLIPS AND
SEDGWICK COUNTIES WHERE DEW POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES ON SUN AND
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON. THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON SUN WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ON MON MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AGAIN WITH TSTM COVERAGE RATHER
ISOLD. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100 OVER NERN CO BASED ON 850-700 MB TEMPS.

ON TUE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER COLORADO. MODELS SHOW A
WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S. MEANWHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE BEHIND THE WK FNT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS MAINLY TUE EVENING OVER
NERN CO.

FOR WED AND THU THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT APPEARS SOME MONSOON MOISTURE WILL TRY AND ADVECT
INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. HOWEVER IT STILL APPEARS HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE
90S BOTH DAYS ACROSS NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD HOLD SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS...BUT COULD
AFFECT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST DIA APPROACH GATES. ELEVATED
HAZE LAYER COULD IMPACT APPROACH RATES ESPECIALLY DURING MORE
STABLE HOURS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO ISSUES EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND GENERALLY LIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. ON MONDAY
ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...MEIER/RPK


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