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000
FXUS65 KBOU 140947
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
347 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS DRY AIR ADVECTS
ACROSS THE REGION. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM SHOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AT OR LESS THAN 60 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
ATMOSPHERE UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z. AFTER THAT...MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE BEGINS MOVING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MEANING EVEN LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO STAY OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO AS THAT SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST THE ONLY PRECIPITATION THAT
IS MENTIONED IS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF TOMORROW/S WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
STATE. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
COMPARABLE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH A CDFNT. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW DECENT
MOISTURE IN THE MTNS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE ORGRAPHICS ESPECIALLY
THRU EARLY AFTN. THUS SHOULD SEE AREAS OF SNOW ALONG WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THE LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN CO WILL BE MAINLY NNW
SO UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE LACKING.  HOWEVER COMBINATION OF SOME
MID LVL ASCENT AND DECENT LAPSE RATES MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTN HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH SPEEDS TO 40
MPH AT TIMES WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME BLOWING DUST OVER THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SAT WILL OCCUR BEFORE NOON WITH READINGS IN THE
45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS NRN CO.  THUS PCPN SHOULD END BY EARLY
EVENING.  FOR SUN DRY NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.  ONCE
AGAIN WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES OVER THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS.  HIGHS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
OVER NERN CO.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WNW
AS A SFC LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE MTNS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER.  WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS
SHOULD WARM QUITE A BIT OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  SOME MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY LATE AFTN
NORTH OF I-70 WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.


BY MON NIGHT AND TUE THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA. THE GFS NOW HAS A STG UPPER LEVEL LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER ERN CO LATE MON NIGHT WHICH MOVES RAPIDLY INTO
CNTRL KANSAS BY 18Z TUE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE DIFFUSE LOOKING
TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. OVERALL SHOULD
SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS. OVER
NERN CO THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO A QUICK SHOT OF PCPN LATE
MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING OVER THE PLAINS WITH LESS OF A
CHC IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF WOULD ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHC OF PCPN IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY OVER NERN CO AND ADJUST
TEMPERATURES LOWER.

BY WED AND THU BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW DRIER AIR SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA IN WNW FLOW ALOFT SO WILL HAVE A DRY FCST WITH
A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...NO AVIATION IMPACTS TODAY OR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH CIRRUS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LESS THAT 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS THEY TREND TO WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS