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000
FXUS65 KBOU 061007
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
407 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH. THERE IS A VERY
WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHICH PER WEAK PRESSURE RISES TO THE NORTH
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO REACH THE PALMER DIVIDE LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE TOTALLY WASHING OUT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE COOL AIR
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THERE MAY BE A NARROW INTERFACE OF BETTER MIXING ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE MET...SO WILL
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE. FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THE AIRMASS LOOKS A BIT MORE STABLE BUT STILL CANT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK Q-G
LIFT NOTED TOWARD 21Z-00Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE
MAIN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY COOLING ANTICIPATED AS WEAK FRONT WASHES
OUT TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

A FULL-BLOWN SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PICTURE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TO COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS WARM
TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
SPREADING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. THE GENERAL RESULT WILL BE WARM
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY
SPREADING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE ADJACENT PLAINS EACH DAY. THE
LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE WITH IT...MAKING TUESDAY EVENING THE PERIOD WHICH
MIGHT SEE THE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
IN THE DENVER AREA SHOW THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD BE
AROUND ONE INCH ALONG WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND WITH
HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS BACK IN TO THE LOWER 90S. SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED EACH DAY AND MOST OF THE EVENINGS
ON THE PLAINS. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK MAY BE WHEN WE
SEE THE BEST FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS THE RISING HEIGHTS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. PLACES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION UNDER A
LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 21Z-02Z...NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 KTS BY 15Z-16Z WITH WEAK FRONTAL PUSH...THEN TRANSITION
MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST 01Z-03Z. SOME CHANCE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM FOOTHILLS CONVECTION COULD BRING A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE 22Z-01Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH