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000
FXUS65 KBOU 030111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
611 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSPORTED WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S. PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE
UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE JET AND
A WAVE MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MAKING IT ACROSS THE
DIVIDE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THEY MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH DUE
TO THE WARM AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE
INTO THE 40S FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MELTING WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS MAY BE REACHED THIS
EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THIS OCCURS. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE WILL QUICKLY KILL ANY SHOWERS COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND SUNRISE. UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON
FOR SNOW TO FORM. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2
INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH OVER WY WILL HELP TO
BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL RETURN TO A MORE NW FLOW AND AID IN DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS ENDING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL REACH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH NW
FLOW INCREASING DUE TO A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA AND
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK SOME SUN AND
INCREASED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER EAST
THAN THE EC. THE EC HAS THE CENTER FURTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP OUT OF THE NW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP IT LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PILOT REPORT FROM KAPA INDICATES LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR AND KFTG
WIND PROFILER DOES AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE WIND
SHEAR THIS EVENING UNTIL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL NOT
SURE IF/WHEN THIS HAPPENS BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST
SHOULD HELP ERODE THE SHALLOW HAZE WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITY AND MORE
STABLE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOWARD 04Z-05Z.

THERE MAY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES OFF THE FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. BIGGEST ISSUE
WITH THEM WILL BE GUSTING WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE. AROUND 11Z...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL
FALL BELOW 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINES WITH THE FRONT. TOTAL
SNOW FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH A LITTLE MORE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH