094
FXUS65 KBOU 100844
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
244 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms today. Gusty winds of 30-50 mph
  will be common. A few gusts up to 65 mph will be possible.

- Critical fire weather conditions across South Park today.

- Scattered to numerous late day showers and thunderstorms Friday
  and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

It is a very warm morning out there! At 2 AM, temperatures across
the urban corridor are in the lower to mid 80s. Cloud cover and
downslope winds associated with an upper level trough moving
across the region is keeping temperatures very warm after
yesterday`s hot day. There`s not much moisture at the low levels
of the atmosphere with dew points only in the 30s. Mid and high
level moisture is producing high-based showers with gusty outflow
winds and little to no rainfall. This is expected to continue
through sunrise. There may be a brief break in cloud cover and
showers to warm up this morning. Best lift from the trough moves
through late morning in the mountains and early afternoon along
the I-25 corridor. We`ll see scattered showers/thunderstorms
develop from this lift. Strong wind gusts up to 65 mph will be
possible under the strongest down bursts. However, most locations
should see brief 30-50 mph gusts when the showers/thunderstorms
roll through. Rainfall could be briefly moderate or heavy, but
amounts are expected to stay under a quarter inch. The gusty
outflow winds will be the main threat today. Showers and
thunderstorms linger into the evening hours over the plains, but
the rest of the area is expected to finished with the showers and
thunderstorms by early evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Radar and satellite pictures are showing limited convection
developing over the northern border plains and southeastern plains
of the CWA currently. For this afternoon and evening, convection
will be minimal, 10-20%s over the plains. However, even weak
showers of virga could produce significant downdraft outflow
winds.

Models have the upper ridge center push westward overnight tonight
and on Thursday with the ridge flattening.  A weak upper trough
moves across the CWA on Thursday.  It will usher in a cooler airmass
with some increased moisture and limited upward synoptic scale
energy. Will keep the going 30-60% pops in. Strong outflow winds
can again be expected.

Concerning the Fire Weather Watch in South Park for Thursday,
conditions remain marginal at this time for a Red Flag Warning so
will leave the watch going for now.

There will be weak northwesterly flow aloft Thursday night into
Friday, then more weak upper troughing late Friday night/Saturday
morning.  CAPE is fairly decent both late day Friday and Saturday
with precipitable water values over 1.00 inch for most of the plains
both days. Heavier rainfall amounts are possible with the 30-70%
pops.

Look at the later days, Sunday through Wednesday, the upper ridge
moves back into Colorado Sunday and Monday, but it`s center stays
southwest of the state. There is more upper troughing, mostly north
of us, on Tuesday and Wednesday, but just enough to bring cooler air
to the CWA both days. For pops, Sunday is the driest day, with
limited convection relegated to just the mountains. Late day
convection and precipitation chances increase Monday through
Wednesday; out on the plains as well, with Wednesday having the
highs pops. Denver could see two days with 90 degree or plus
temperatures both Sunday and Monday, but Tuesday and Wednesdsay`s
highs will cool to below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/...
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Wind forecast for tonight, Thursday morning, and Thursday afternoon
is challenging and highly uncertain. An upper level wave is
producing high-based showers across Colorado at this time and will
continue into Thursday morning. Very little to no rainfall is
expected, but dry microbursts/outflow winds will continue to bring
wind shifts all the way through Thursday afternoon. Latest model
runs have been showing a wave of thunderstorms moving through
between 18Z and 22Z with strong outflow winds of 40-50 knots. The
shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to be done 22-24Z.
Northeast winds are expected to prevail behind the exiting
convection around 00Z Friday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning in effect from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT
this evening for COZ214.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
DISCUSSION...rjk
AVIATION...Meier