National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KBOU 140956
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
356 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A WK
BNDRY MOVING ACROSS NERN CO BY MIDDAY WITH LOW LVL WINDS BECOMING
NNE BY MIDDAY AND THEN MORE ELY BY LATE AFTN. OVERALL INSTABILITY
IS NOT THAT GREAT BASED ON CURRENT SOUNDINGS WITH CAPES UNDER 500
J/KG. HOWEVER WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEE
SOME HIGH BASED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. OVER
NERN CO THE NAM SHOWS SOME ISOLD TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION BY 21Z
WHILE GFS KEEPS ALL OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS THRU
00Z. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME PERIOD. AS FOR HIGHS
WK BNDRY MOVING ACROSS NERN CO DOES NOT HAVE ANY COOL AIR SO WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO 850-700 MB TEMPS HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MON.
RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 87 WHICH COULD BE TIED OR BKN.

FOR TONIGHT THE NAM AND GFS INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS NERN CO THIS EVENING AS A COOL FNT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE GFS BLOWS UP CONVECTION IN THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME OVER NERN CO
WHILE THE NAM HAS FAR LESS ACTIVITY AS WELL AS THE ECMWF. FOR NOW
WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS THE NAM AND ECMWF AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE NEXT WEEK OF WEATHER WILL
PRIMARILY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS ON
THE PLAINS. WHEN LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
FEATURE A SPLIT IN THE UPPER FLOW...THURSDAY WILL HAVE INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FEATURE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE STATE. NONE OF THESE PATTERNS
LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE STRENGTH TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT UNCERTATINTY EXISTS OVER HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WHILE A SURFACE LOW RESIDES
OVER EASTERN COLORADO FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BEFORE A COOL SURGE MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT
CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THAT
TIME...THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THERE WILL ALSO BE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE STATE WHICH MAY HELP ORGANIZE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ASSUMING ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FEED INTO THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. SATURDAY EVENING COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
BREEZY AROUND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT
NWLY BY 16Z AND THEN MORE NLY BY 18Z. BY 21Z WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE ENE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH AND THEN ELY BY 00Z. THERE
COULD BE ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTMS MAINLY AFTER 23Z WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. AT
THIS TIME WILL JUST MENTION VCTS IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME PERIOD. WINDS
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND THEN MAY TREND MORE
SWLY AFTER 03Z. A COOL FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AIRPORT BY 12Z WED
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH SO NO
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK